2021 Global Outlook: New Cycle, New Leadership

Key Points

  • We expect a near-term economic double-dip for the global economy gives way to a vaccine-led broad recovery in 2021.

  • Key signs on the path to recovery: the second wave of lockdowns ending successfully this winter, mass immunization beginning in the spring, followed by a sharp rebound in economic activity in virus-depressed sectors over the summer. Deviation from the path may mean bad news for global stocks.

  • The new cycle comes with new leadership as international economic and earnings growth are likely to exceed the U.S. for the first time in years, supporting relative outperformance by international stocks.

Next Steps