[Screen shows “Weekly Market Outlook with Jeffrey Kleintop”]
[Jeff holds up sign with clouds labelled "April" and flowers labelled "May"]
From the outlook for bank lending to central bank meetings, to China’s President visiting Europe and more corporate earnings reports, I’m Jeff Kleintop with what you need to know for the week ahead.
Will April showers bring May flowers? The shower of stronger than expected U.S. economic data for April—did not include the jobs report on Friday. Still for the month as a whole the data shifted out the market’s outlook for rate cuts, pushing the S&P 500 4% lower for the month of April after a steady series of monthly gains. This first full week of May includes fewer data releases and the back half of the earnings reporting season which after Friday’s welcome softer jobs data could make for a calmer market.
Of course, the Fed doesn’t have a crystal ball but policymakers did have Monday’s release of the quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey in hand at last week’s meeting — and perhaps that survey showed
[Jeff holds up illustration of a person chasing a caricature bag of money running away]
tight credit conditions contributing to Powell’s less hawkish tone in the press conference. Consumer delinquencies and defaults are on the rise, contributing to bank caution. The year-on-year decline in commercial lending — typically associated with recessions — may be a warning sign for the Fed.
Tuesday brings earnings
[Jeff holds up illustration of an umbrella labelled "Earnings Season"]
from Europe’s UBS, the U.S.’s Walt Disney, and the U.K.’s BP. So that's the data watch this week.
Among central banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia
[Jeff holds up a sign showing "Words" over a line above "Actions"]
meets on Tuesday and Bank of England on Thursday, neither are expected to cut rates. But as inflation continues to fall, markets will focus on any comments tied to how much longer rates will remain restrictive.
Chinese President Xi Jinping
[Jeff holds up an illustration of a dragon labelled "China"]
Spends his week, this week in Europe visiting France, Serbia and Hungary, his first visit to the European Union in five years. Europe is seeking to strike a balance, curbing the risk of a flood of goods from China’s underutilized factories and to entice investment from the world’s No. 2 economy.
[Jeff holds up sign saying "Thank You"]
Thanks for watching.
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