Stocks Slump as Jobs, Retail Sales Raise Concerns

Published as of: November 25, 2025, 9:15 a.m. ET

(Tuesday market open) Today's September Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales data took a back seat to newer numbers that suggested the economy remains sluggish. Payroll processing firm ADP said job losses averaged 13,500 per week for the four weeks ending November 8, weighing on Wall Street, while retail sales disappointed and PPI was roughly in line with estimates.

PPI rose 0.3%, with core PPI, excluding energy and food prices, up 0.1%. That compared with consensus for a 0.3% headline increase and a 0.2% uptick in core. Retail sales rose 0.2%, well under 0.4% consensus. Major indexes recovered some earlier losses immediately after the data release, possibly on the lower-than-expected core PPI number. Still, the ADP report raises broader questions. "The tone is risk-off this morning," said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "The ADP report is raising concerns that the labor market is weaker than expected. PPI was mostly in line with expectations. It doesn't suggest that inflation is turning a corner and will move lower any time soon."

After four straight weekly declines, the S&P 500 index gained Monday and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed more than 2.5%. This morning, however, AI leader Nvidia (NVDA) fell 3% after a media outlet, The Information, reported that Meta Platforms (META) is considering AI chips made by Alphabet (GOOGL). Recent weakness in bitcoin, quantum computing, drones, and meme stocks "points to some positioning adjustments underway," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist, SCFR, and Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy, SCFR. Monday's rebound, they added, "suggests buy-the-dip has not been squashed, and seasonals are generally supportive of a year-end rally."

1. Deeper dive on retail sales, PPI: Though the ADP data appeared to take precedence early today, there is some relief that PPI, which measures wholesale prices, came in at or slightly below expected levels despite a big jump in food costs. Goods inflation rose the most in more than a year at 0.9% while services costs fell. Overall, PPI rose 2.7% year over year, up from 2.6% in August. The next key reading comes a week from Friday when delayed September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data are due. Retail sales data look concerning, especially a 0.1% drop in the closely watched category of control group retail sales, used to calculate gross domestic product, or GDP. Analysts had expected a 0.3% rise. "This raises concerns that the consumer is weakening going into holiday season and may pull back," Howard said, adding that this is September data so it's unclear how much weight the Federal Reserve wants to put into it. November consumer confidence data from the Conference Board is due at 10 a.m. ET. 
    
2. Rate cut no panacea: Stocks got a lift late last week when rate cut hopes suddenly galloped ahead on encouraging words from a key Fed policy maker. Following today's soft retail sales data, odds of a 25-basis point easing in December stood at 83%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That's up sharply from below 40% at the lows last week, though still beneath 90% a month ago. Hawkish words from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell initially helped sink rate cut odds, and since then, Fed speakers differed on whether a third cut is needed. Even if the Fed cuts by 25 basis points next month, it's not necessarily a panacea for interest-rate sensitive areas like housing and small-caps. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield descended sharply last summer ahead of anticipated cuts, but since the Fed cut in September and October it's been range-bound between 4.05% and 4.15%. This partly reflects lack of data during the shutdown. Still, this is above the 3.75% to 4% fed funds range and reinforces ideas that the Fed has little control over long-term rates that help determine business and consumer borrowing appetites.
    
3. Choppy times seen persisting: Trading volume could lighten this week as the holiday gets closer, possibly leading to sharper daily moves and more choppiness. Anyone trading these markets may want to consider extra care, with the water already rough after last week's turbulence. Another thing to keep in mind is that recent rallies have generally run into selling, and the market is in delicate shape, technically. The S&P 500 index fell through its 50-day moving average last week and tested its 100-day. Though it bounced off the 100-day, it also bounced off the 50-day several times before sinking under that level for the first time since early this year. The Nasdaq Composite also began the week just above its 100-day line, and the S&P 500's Relative Strength Index, or RSI, designed to measure market momentum, climbed to 49 early today from last week's lows of around 30, still down from 75 in early October.

• Alphabet soared 6% Monday and was up another 3% this morning on the report of Meta considering its chips. Excitement about its Gemini 3 AI launch last week continues to drive shares, and Alphabet is up 69% so far this year. 
   
• Broadcom, which rose 11% yesterday in association with Alphabet's rally, jumped 3% early today on the report of Meta's interest in Alphabet's chips.
   
• Nvidia fell 3% early today and has had a low profile since its exuberant earnings report last week. It managed a 2% gain yesterday, and Barron's reported that Nvidia sent a memo to analysts denying recent allegations of accounting fraud by a well-known investor. Competition is mounting, and today's report on Alphabet is more evidence. Alphabet's chips aren't as flexible as Nvidia's but are cheaper to develop and run, Barron's pointed out.
   
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also fell sharply, more than 4%, on the news of Meta potentially choosing chips from Alphabet.
   
• Bitcoin (/BTC) dropped 1.75% in early trading while shares of crypto-related firms lost ground. Bitcoin jumped 5% yesterday, lifting shares in the crypto sector and possibly signaling a move back toward "risk-on" trading after a couple weeks of hesitancy. The drop this morning suggests risk sentiment may be receding.
   
• Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) plummeted 8% despite surpassing analysts' estimates on earnings and revenue and issuing guidance that was in line with Wall Street's thinking. It also raised full-year sales growth guidance for stores open a year or more. Worries about the integration of Foot Locker continue to drag Dick's shares, as the retailer said it plans to close "underperforming" Foot Locker stores.
   
• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) catapulted 18.7% in pre-market hours as earnings and revenue beat Wall Street's estimates. Hollister brands saw a 15% year-over-year jump in sales at stores open a year or more.
   
• Kohl's (KSS) soared nearly 27% in early trading after the retailer reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue despite a 1.7% drop in sales at stores open a year or more. It also issued better-than-expected guidance.
   
• Best Buy (BBY) climbed 2% in the early going as earnings topped Wall Street's estimates and revenues met expectations. The company also provided better-than-expected fiscal 2026 EPS guidance.
   
• Alibaba (BABA) climbed nearly 3% in early action as quarterly revenue beat analysts' expectations. The company signaled robust AI demand and cloud growth, Barron's reported.
   
• Market breadth inched higher Monday but remains under its long-term average. About 41% of S&P 500 stocks are now trading above their 50-day moving averages, compared with the average of 55%. The reading is up from last week's lows near 30%. The exchange-traded fund (ETF) category with the largest inflows last week was U.S. large caps.
   
• Tesla (TSLA) shares got a nearly 7% spark yesterday after CEO Elon Musk posted about Tesla's AI chips being what he called a leader in "real-world AI," including Tesla's cars and data centers.
   
• U.S. crude oil futures (/CL) dropped 2% on news of progress in a proposed peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. 

Traditional barometer loses steam: Transports, long seen as a barometer of the underlying economy, haven't kept pace with the broader market this year, raising questions about whether trucking, railroads, airlines, and other transportation stocks can continue serving that role for investors. Read what's behind this in Schwab's latest analysis.

One day isn't a trend, but the 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX:CGO—candlesticks) ended just below its short-term trading range yesterday to post its lowest close in a month as rate- cut hopes edged higher. The yield's range had been roughly between 4.05% and 4.15% for all of November, and it's unclear if this is just a one-day move or something with more legs. Lower yields can support stocks by keeping down borrowing costs but also can suggest economic weakness and more cautious trading in equities.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

November 26: October new home sales and expected earnings from Deere (DE).

November 27: U.S. markets closed for Thanksgiving holiday.

November 28: No major data or earnings expected; U.S markets close at 1 p.m. ET.

December 1: November ISM Manufacturing Index, October construction spending

December 2: Expected earnings from Marvell Technology (MRVL) and CrowdStrike (CRWD).