Geopolitics Still Center Stage with Data on Hiatus
Published as of: January 6, 2026, 9:10 a.m. ET
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| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® index | 6,902.05 | +43.58 | +0.64% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® | 48,977.18 | +594.79 | +1.23% |
| Nasdaq Composite® | 23,395.82 | +160.19 | +0.69% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.17% | +0.01 | -- |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 98.42 |
+0.15 |
+0.16% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® | 15.00 | +0.10 | +0.67% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $58.60 | +$0.28 | +0.48% |
| Bitcoin | $94,095 | –$490 |
–0.52% |
(Tuesday market open) Wall Street flatlined early Tuesday following Monday's "risk-on" rally inspired by weekend events in Venezuela. Market participants face a day that's sparse in terms of data and earnings, potentially leaving geopolitics front and center. On a lighter note, despite yesterday's gains, the "Santa Claus rally" failed to materialize for the third year in a row, with Monday the last day of the traditional seven-session window. The S&P 500 index fell 0.1% over those seven days.
The data calendar gets more crowded after today, culminating in Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for December. Tomorrow morning brings ADP employment for December, along with November job openings. Analysts expect ADP employment to rise around 45,000, up sharply from a negative 32,000 in November but still low historically. Estimates for Friday's government payrolls data have jobs growth near 55,000, with unemployment remaining at 4.6% in December and weekly wages up 0.3%. Jobs growth has averaged a lackluster 22,000 over the three most recent months of data.
Major U.S. indexes rose Monday, with strength most evident in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the small-cap Russell 2000 (RUT). This partly reflects a rally in energy stocks on hopes oil companies can have access to Venezuela's supplies. The DJIA closed at a record high. Consumer stocks also had a solid session. Info tech slipped, but the Nasdaq Composite still snapped a five-session losing streak for its first positive close of 2026.
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Three things to watch
- Chip chat: Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) each rose about 0.5% this morning after their CEOs spoke late Monday at the CES tech trade show. Both touted advances in AI, with Nvidia highlighting its new Vera Rubin chips and saying they're in full production. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang also provided more details on the company's self-driving car technology and program. In another development today, Bloomberg reported strong demand in China for Nvidia's H200 chip. Other chip and AI-related stocks also moved higher this morning, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), CoreWeave (CRWV), and Marvell Technology (MRVL). Semiconductors as a sector rose about 1% yesterday, and next week features earnings from TSM. Chip stocks drew strength Monday in part due to upbeat earnings news from Nvidia partner Foxconn, which reported a 22% jump in fourth-quarter revenue.
- Changing focus for tech as earnings loom: Later this month, investors gear up for the latest round of earnings from major U.S. tech firms and may get a sense of how much they want to spend on AI in coming months. Late last year, a twist developed. It was no longer enough to see companies like Meta Platforms (META) and Amazon (AMZN) spending on AI. They also had to do it without using debt or risk losing face with investors. As 2026 begins, investors may focus on who benefits from this spending, with robotics and medical firms often mentioned in recent media reports. "We believe the market could reward AI adopters more than AI enablers, with adopters positioned to benefit by locking in measurable gains in efficiency and innovation," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist, and Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy, Schwab Center for Financial Research, or SCFR, in their 2026 outlook. "Early adopters are seeing tangible cost reduction from automating routine tasks and driving revenue growth through improved customer satisfaction and faster product development. This creates an AI-driven flywheel, where better data improves their AI models, accelerating their performance, and making it increasingly difficult for slower companies to catch up."
- Schwab clients became net-sellers in December: For the first time since May, clients tracked by the Schwab Trading Activity Index (STAX) were net-sellers last month, though the index itself didn't fall much from November and this doesn't mean Schwab clients necessarily turned bearish. Rebalancing and repositioning were key themes in the STAX period, which ended December 26, as clients shed positions in the info tech and consumer discretionary sectors–which had led November buying–and added holdings in communication services, financials, materials, and industrials. As seen earlier this year, Schwab clients trimmed into strength and looked for opportunities to buy dips in some underperforming names, such as Netflix (NFLX), the top buy of the period. Nvidia placed second in net-buying, falling from first in November, followed by Broadcom (AVGO), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL). Tesla (TSLA) moved from the November net-buy list to become the top net-sold stock in December, followed by Palantir (PLTR), Intel (INTC), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), and Rivian (RVN).
The STAX digs into what Schwab clients are doing with their money each month. Learn more about this month's results and sign up to get notified when the latest results are released.
On the move
Vistra (VST) climbed more than 4% early Tuesday after the electricity and power-generation company said it planned to buy Cogentrix Energy from Quantum Capital Group in a deal valued at about $4 billion, including cash, equity, and debt, Barron's reported.
Microchip Technology (MCHP) rose 3% early Tuesday after the company raised its sales guidance for the recently ended quarter.
Among individual movers yesterday, Chevron (CVX) climbed more than 5%. It may be best positioned among global oil giants to immediately benefit from U.S. access to Venezuelan oil, Bloomberg reported. Shares edged up about 1% ahead of Tuesday's open.
Chevron wasn't alone. Halliburton (HAL) and SLB (SLB) also climbed double digits Monday and were up in early trading Tuesday. Valero (VLO) rose 9% Monday and another 1% today after CNBC reported the company could be well equipped to deal with sulfur-rich oil from Venezuela.
Large banks performed well Monday ahead of next week's full slate of earnings from the biggest Wall Street firms, starting a week from today with JPMorgan Chase (JPM).
Okta (OKTA) rose almost 5% Monday and another 5% this morning after the identity and access management company announced a $1 billion share repurchase program.
D.R. Horton (DHI) and Lennar (LEN) both slipped 1% early today. This came after Wells Fargo downgraded D.R. Horton to equal weight from overweight, citing margin concerns. Lennar got downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS.
Under Armour (UAA) rose 3% in early trading after Fairfax Financial Holdings revealed it had continued to build a large stake.
Bitcoin (/BTC) slipped slightly early today but rose 4.8% Monday as risk sentiment appeared to improve. Bitcoin futures posted their best close since mid-November.
Silver futures (/SI) continued their surge, rising another 2.3% this morning.
Treasury yields edged up early Tuesday after easing slightly Monday. The benchmark 10-year yield remains near the upper end of its recent range between roughly 4% and 4.2%. The close yesterday, down 2 basis points at 4.17%, kept it close to the 4.2% level that might raise eyebrows.
Futures trading prices in 16% odds of a January rate cut as of early today, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That's unchanged from where it's been over much of the last week.
More insights from Schwab
Looking ahead, behind: In their latest analysis, my colleagues Sonders and Gordon discuss themes that dominated 2025 and assess how markets reacted to the strike on Venezuela. "We continue to think diversification and staying invested are the best safeguards against any unsettling developments," they wrote. "That is in keeping with the relatively strong base from which markets are starting this year, given broad-based gains in 2025 and relatively healthy breadth."
" id="body_disclosure--media_disclosure--542896" >Looking ahead, behind: In their latest analysis, my colleagues Sonders and Gordon discuss themes that dominated 2025 and assess how markets reacted to the strike on Venezuela. "We continue to think diversification and staying invested are the best safeguards against any unsettling developments," they wrote. "That is in keeping with the relatively strong base from which markets are starting this year, given broad-based gains in 2025 and relatively healthy breadth."
Getting into better financial shape in 2026: With the coming of a new year, many investors resolve to improve their financial health. Schwab's latest financial planning article offers seven money moves that can help you get there, including setting small, achievable goals, improving your investing knowledge, and reducing debt.
Chart of the day
Data source: CME Group. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
Silver (/SI–candlesticks) returned to its winning ways yesterday, rising more than 7% and nearing recent record highs. Gold (/GC–purple line) also powered higher, and copper (/HG–blue line) has been on a tear of its own lately. This is being driven at least in part by speculative money coming out of crypto and into metals. Gold, for its part, is benefitting from lower U.S. rates, a weak dollar that fell more than 9% last year, and the geopolitical concerns over Venezuela.
The week ahead
January 7: December ADP employment change, December ISM Services PMI, November Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), and expected earnings from Albertsons (ACI), Constellation Brands (STZ), Jefferies Financial Group (JEF), and Applied Digital (APLD).
January 8: Challenger job cuts and expected earnings from RPM International (RPM).
January 9: December nonfarm payrolls, December unemployment, September and October housing starts and building permits, and January preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment.
January 12: No major data or earnings expected.
January 13: December Consumer Price Index (CPI), September new home sales, and expected earnings from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), and Delta Air Lines (DAL).