Crude, Yields Flex Muscle, Bruising Stocks Early

Published as of: September 1, 2026, 9:11 a.m. ET

(Tuesday market open) September began with a thud. Global bond yields soared, crude surged, and stocks dove early as investors anticipated central bank rate hikes and monitored headlines of overnight attacks on a cargo ship navigating the Strait of Hormuz. Tech took the brunt of the blow, especially chip stocks.

Before Tuesday's early retreat, rangebound trading suggested no mass exit from equities but also little buying interest. The last wave of buying came after July's chip pullback. One headwind is Treasury yields, now a stone's throw from 5% for the 10-year note and possibly getting there before 2027. The 30-year Treasury yield has spent 55 days above 5% so far this year, the most in any year since 2006. Chances of a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting reached 66% today, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, up from 40% a week ago.

Major indexes fell for the third session in four Monday. Despite recent struggles, the three major indexes advanced in August—the first monthly gains for the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq since May. Today brings job openings and the August ISM Manufacturing PMI^® just after the open. Across the Atlantic, Eurozone inflation hit 3.3% annually in August, a multi-year high. The European Central Bank (ECB) meets next week.

1. "Quits" seen key to job openings data: This week's jobs data parade starts with today's 10 a.m. ET Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which analysts expect to show 7.3 million job openings in July, down just slightly from June's 7.36 million. That number may not mean much for the market. Instead, traders might focus on the quits rate, which provides clues about how flexible the job market is and how many workers are jumping to new jobs, possibly for better pay. A higher quit rate than July's 2% might send a positive signal about the job market ahead of Friday's August nonfarm payrolls report, the crucial highlight this week. Quits are near six-year lows, implying hesitancy among job holders. This could suggest there aren't enough wage incentives to leave current positions, a possible sign that companies aren't competing heavily for new workers. That correlates with recent historic lows in weekly jobless claims, a possible sign that both workers and companies are generally standing pat for now.
    
2. Earnings echo chamber ahead: Though earnings are light this week, the few firms reporting could swing some weight. Mainly, investors look for an echo effect after recent solid outings from competitors. It starts this afternoon with cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and server maker Dell (DELL). The Palo Alto results follow strength from competitor CrowdStrike (CRWD) last week, just as chipmaker Broadcom (AVGO) reports late Wednesday after Nvidia's (NVDA) recent solid outing. Their respective predecessors' performance could lift the bar and provide insight on AI and software trends. Investors may be asking if Nvidia's results reflect broad-based AI strength or simply its own metrics, with Broadcom's results possibly providing evidence one way or the other. The same could go for Palo Alto with cybersecurity. Also, Wednesday's earnings from cloud-based AI firm Snowflake (SNOW) follow skyrocketing cloud growth from hyperscalers in the second quarter that shaped AI optimism. Another solid cloud outing might reinforce that thinking and boost confidence that hyperscaler spending is on the right track. For Dell, server and networking storage revenue is key. Analysts expect a 95% annual rise, Barron's reported.
    
3. Volume light, divergence heavy: Stock market trading volume is near its lowest levels of the year. Even so, there's plenty of action below the surface. Divergence between volatility of individual stocks and the broader indexes remains high. A recent CNBC report noted that intra-stock correlation in the S&P 500 Index is the lowest on record. On a scale of zero to one, with one meaning almost complete correlation between stocks and zero meaning none, the current level is 0.10, according to data the network cited, the lowest on record going back to 1990. Much of the divergence is within technology, CNBC noted, as investors continue to take different positions on AI names. "Stock pickers are experiencing a lot more volatility than passive index investors," said Alex Coffey, senior trading and derivatives strategist at Schwab. "I see it as a tug of war under the surface. And until we see that correlation start to recover, it's going to be difficult for the 'market,' meaning indices, to trend higher or lower because the tug of war, or dispersion, is dampening the index volatility and keeping us rangebound." More direction might come after next Monday's holiday when many participants return from vacations.

• Medtronic (MDT) added around 3% early after topping analysts' quarterly earnings and revenue estimates and raising fiscal 2027 guidance. The cardiovascular division grew 18.9% year over year.
   
• Novartis (NVS) climbed 5% on positive late-stage trial results for its oral multiple sclerosis drug.
   
• Nvidia (NVDA) dropped 1.7% early after The Wall Street Journal reported Anthropic signed a $35 billion cloud deal backed by Nvidia, with Nvidia holding the lease on the data center. This is the latest such deal Nvidia has made, leaving some analysts concerned about possible "circular" deals in which Nvidia helps other companies buy its products.
   
• Apple (AAPL) stood its ground early today, the first day as CEO for John Ternus, who is replacing Tim Cook. The company's market capitalization rose 1,000% under Cook, who became CEO in 2011 and stays as executive chair. Shares are up almost 17% year to date.
   
• The 10-year note yield's early gains took it to its highest level since January 2025. Gold fell more than 1% as yields rose. Japan's 10-year yield, meanwhile, hit 3% for the first time since 1996. The Bank of Japan meets later this month with analysts expecting a hike.
   
• Aon (AON) dropped 9.5% Monday as the company agreed to buy USI Insurance Services for $17 billion.
   
• Many consumer stocks retreated Monday, partly in response to rising yields that make borrowing tougher. Clothing retailers, airlines, cruise lines, and ride share firms all fell, with Gap (GAP) down 4.8% after last week's earnings rally.
   
• Tesla (TSLA) climbed 5% Monday as shares clawed above their 50-day moving average. A Cybercab launch event occurs Thursday in Austin.
   
• Technically, the S&P 500 Index remains above its 50-day moving average, near 7,567. Recent lows near 7,640 didn't get tested on Monday but might today. Below that, the old high near 7,620 could offer support.
   
• From a breadth perspective, just under 50% of S&P 500 stocks trade above their 50-day moving average, down from more than 70% at the August highs. This means fewer stocks are doing more of the footwork.

Organic growth of a podcast: In the latest episode of Invested in the Game, Schwab's Mason Reed interviewed Tron Carter about developing golf podcast No Laying Up.

Breadth took a breather in August, with the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average dropping to just under 49% Monday (candlesticks), down about 19% from the beginning of August when it was 62%. The percentage peaked above 70% in mid-August. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, which weighs all stocks the same rather than by market cap, advanced slightly in August but flagged in the final days along with breadth, possibly a sign that fewer stocks are doing more of the footwork.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

September 2: ADP August nonfarm employment, July factory orders, Federal Reserve Beige Book, and expected earnings from Broadcom (AVGO), Snowflake (SNOW), Hewlett-Packard (HPE), NetApp (NTAP), and Five Below (FIVE).
September 3: August ISM Services PMI^® and expected earnings from Ciena (CIEN) and lululemon (LULU).
September 4: August nonfarm payrolls and August unemployment rate.
September 7: U.S. markets closed for Labor Day holiday.
September 8: Expected earnings from Casey's General Stores (CASY).