Pressure Persists As Retailer, Nvidia Results Loom

Published as of: November 17, 2025, 9:19 a.m. ET

(Monday market open) After a lackluster span, holiday diversion looms as a host of big box retailers share results in coming days. Though the week might hinge on Nvidia (NVDA) earnings late Wednesday, Wall Street could tune in to retail reports for a consumer check in a fraught time for sentiment. Major indexes struggled early, with tech shares—including Nvidia—back under pressure for the most part.

The shopping fest kicks off tomorrow morning with Home Depot (HD), followed by Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT) Wednesday and Thursday. Last week featured rotation out of tech into other sectors, along with declining rate cut hopes and rising yields. That doesn't necessarily mean the rally is over. "It's worth pointing out the bullish seasonality that accompanies November and December and the potential for performance chasing by fund managers, especially since stocks have pulled back recently," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "Then there's Nvidia's earnings report, which has the potential to reignite the 'AI bull trade' or add fuel to recent concerns around high valuation and over-investment."

Stocks plowed through a mixed session Friday after their mid-week stumble, with chip shares rebounding from recent nearly one-month lows. While investors harbor hope that Nvidia's outcome could ease recent AI valuation concerns, that's not a slam dunk considering the market's unfriendly response to the last few Nvidia reports. Beyond Nvidia and retail earnings, some fresh data could help bring more clarity, even if Thursday's September nonfarm payrolls report will reflect outcomes collected two months ago. Consensus is for job gains of around 50,000, roughly what's needed to keep unemployment at 4.3%.

1. Fed rate cut seen less likely: Some U.S. data begin filtering in this week, including weekly jobless claims and September payrolls. Labor market concerns led the Fed to cut rates in September and October, but recent private reports and one Consumer Price Index (CPI) released during the shutdown didn't indicate much of a pause for CPI, still near 3% year over year. "The likelihood of a December rate cut continues to decline," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at SCFR. It's down to 43% this morning, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The Fed also seems increasingly bifurcated between hawks and doves, making December's decision tougher to predict. "Dissents have been somewhat rare over the years, with three dissents happening at only five meetings over the last 15 years, but we may see more dissents over the coming meetings," Martin said. Several Fed speakers are on tap today, along with auctions of 3-month and 6-month Treasury notes following a rise in yields last week after anemic auction demand. In one data note, Empire State Manufacturing this morning came in well above expectations at 18.70, up from the prior 10.7. Construction spending looms today just after the open, as well.
    
2. Peering into sector rotation: The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW), which weighs all components equally rather than by market capitalization, is having the best month relative to the SPX since March, another sign of rotation out of heavily capitalized names. A key takeaway is performance last week beyond mega caps and other tech. By midday Friday, health care, energy, and materials were the three best performing S&P 500 sectors over the last week, with health care up more than 4% versus less than 0.5% for the SPX. While rotation seems driven by worry about tech valuations, it's important to check beyond market whims to see if this move has a foundation to stand on in the long run. One important metric is projected earnings growth. Health care earnings are seen at 13.1% year over year in 2025, slipping to 9.4% next year, according to LSEG I/B/E/S. Tech earnings are also seen lower next year, but at 22.8% versus 23.5% in 2025.
    
3. Key valuation metric hit near-record high: Though valuation itself is seldom a good market indicator, some of Wall Street's recent anxiety may reflect a move by the Shiller P/E ratio to its second highest level in history after the dot.com bubble. Before last week's pressure, the ratio—which compares the current price of the S&P 500 index to average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years to even out short-term swings—rose to around 39–40, just below the 44 peak it reached at the turn of the century and well above the long-term average of 16–18, MSN reported. While this implies that stocks are expensive, it doesn't necessarily mean major indexes can't continue to rally. The Shiller reading might be more alarming if prices were far outpacing earnings growth, but that's not the case. On the other hand, the mega caps and their huge growth have far outpaced earnings from the broader market this year, making overall P/E a bit harder to assess.

• Bitcoin (/BTC) plunged to nearly seven-month lows earlier today but popped back to gains of 1% soon before Wall Street's open. Even at its new level, it's at six-month lows and in a bear market down more than 20% from all-time highs posted in early October. Shares of crypto-related firms also got sold off, including Coinbase (COIN), Circle Internet Group (CRCL), and Strategy (MSTR). However, they found some buyers early Monday.
   
• Alphabet (GOOGL) jumped nearly 4% ahead of the open after Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) disclosed a $4.3 billion stake in the company. Apple (AAPL) fell nearly 1% after Berkshire Hathaway announced it had cut its position in that stock. Separately, Bloomberg reported that Alphabet plans to spend $40 billion on three data centers in Texas, and Disney (DIS) and Google reached a distribution agreement to bring Disney's content back to YouTube TV.
   
• AI-related shares Micron (MU), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Palantir (PLTR), and Oracle (ORCL) rose 1% or more Friday following losses earlier in the week, but all stumbled again early today with the exception of Micron. Meta Platforms (META) and Oracle (ORCL)—which recently both saw investors questioning their heavy AI spending—also stayed under pressure today. The dip-buying in tech that emerged late Friday looked encouraging, but it didn't appear to last into the new week.
   
• Gap (GAP) climbed 2.5% today as Barclays upgraded it to Overweight from Equal Weight, saying it likes Gap's leadership strategy focused on longer-term sales and margin recovery across all its brands.
   
• Dell (DELL) dropped 6% in early action after getting downgraded to Underweight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley. The firm believes the memory "supercycle" brings downside risk to hardware manufacturer earnings heading into 2026.
   
• HP (HPQ) lost nearly 4% ahead of the open following shares being downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight by Morgan Stanley, which downgraded several hardware names, saying lower gross margins pose a threat.
   
• Home Depot (HD) fell slightly before tomorrow's earnings. Shares have been sinking for most of the last two months, though U.S. 30-year mortgage rates recently fell to near one-year lows. Poor consumer sentiment and tariffs, along with stubbornly high mortgages, have hurt home improvement firms.
   
• Novo Nordisk (NVO) fell more than 1% after CNBC reported the company plans to lower the price of its Wegovy and Ozempic drugs to $349 per month for cash-paying direct-to-consumer customers.
   
• After falling 6% last week, Tesla (TSLA) shares continued backing up early today, down almost 1% ahead of the open. The stock got a price target increase from Stifel today, but the firm expects "some headwinds" for auto sales following expiration of the U.S. EV tax credit. Tesla also said over the weekend it's requiring its suppliers to exclude Chinese-made components in the U.S. manufacturing of its cars, Barron's reported.
   
• Airline stocks including United Airlines (UAL) and Delta Air Lines (DAL) appeared to get a slight lift from news of the Federal Aviation Administration removing its shutdown-related flight restrictions.
   
• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) rose 2% this morning after it announced a share repurchase program of up to $250 million.
   
• VIX stayed above 20 early today, another sign that markets could remain choppy with investors still waiting for clarity as data start coming in.

Though the tech-dominated Nasdaq-100 index® (NDX—candlesticks) managed a slight comeback Friday and stayed just above its 50-day moving average (blue line), the strength of its upward trend, tracked by Average Directional Index, or ADX (top lower chart—red line), is well off its summer highs and indicates the upward trend from that time is over. The Relative Strength Index (RSI—bottom chart) is below 47, down from last month's peaks above 70. The current RSI is roughly in between overbought and oversold territory.