Stocks Stabilize Early as Oil Prices Retreat
Published as of: July 24, 2026, 9:09 a.m. ET
Listen to this update
Listen here or subscribe to the Schwab Market Update in your favorite podcast app.
| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® Index | 7,408.30 | -90.66 | -1.21% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® | 51,711.65 | -506.93 | -0.97% |
| Nasdaq Composite® | 25,137.69 | -553.21 | -2.15% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.68% | +0.02 | -- |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 101.50 | +0.05 | +0.05% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® | 18.79 | +0.09 | +0.48% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $89.32 | -$2.87 | -3.11% |
| Bitcoin | $64,870 | +$15.00 | +0.02% |
(Friday market open) Stocks looked poised to rebound Friday after Brent crude oil slipped below $100 a barrel, reclaiming some of the ground lost after inflation fears and jitters over AI capital spending hit shares Thursday.
Today offers a relatively light slate of earnings and economic data, particularly in the tech space. Next week we'll hear from Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Apple (AAPL). The main event, though, might be the Federal Reserve policy meeting concluding Wednesday, with second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price data due the following day.
Stocks fell sharply Thursday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq losing more than 2% for its worst day in more than a month. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) fell roughly 7% and 14%, respectively. It was Tesla's worst day in more than a year and its poorest post-earnings performance since 2019. After the close, Intel (INTC) reported solid results and raised guidance. The Trump administration said it will put new 10% to 12.5% tariffs on 60 trading partners, replacing temporary 10% global duties. The new tariffs target countries over forced labor concerns under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, a legal basis seen more likely to stand up to court challenges.
To get the Schwab Market Update in your inbox every morning, subscribe on Schwab.com.
Three things to watch
- Chips, Magnificent Seven diverge: A year ago, investors could look at the S&P 500 technology and communication services sectors' performance on a given day and have a pretty fair idea how both so-called "hyperscaler" AI spenders and chip firms performed. That dynamic has changed dramatically, highlighted yesterday when Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) both fell as investors punished them for their spending, and chip stocks—beneficiaries of that spending—fell just marginally in the early going. "Right now, there's virtually no correlation between the hyperscalers and semiconductors," noted Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). Correlation between the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) and the hyperscalers reached nearly 1.0 in early 2025, implying an almost perfect lockstep between their daily stock market moves. The correlation now is near 0.16, implying almost no connection. If it falls below zero, that would mean an inverse correlation. The SOX is up 56% over the last six months and the Magnificent Seven, consisting mostly of hyperscalers, is up just 0.17% as of Wednesday's close.
- Jobs snapshot likely won't worry Fed: Weekly initial jobless claims fell Thursday to a new cycle low of 187,000. Though it's just one report, it might give Federal Reserve hawks another talking point, with only June durable orders on Monday and consumer confidence Tuesday left on tap. Thursday—a day after the Fed's decision—brings PCE prices for June. The report, closely watched by the Fed, is likely to show core PCE at above 3%, according to early analyst estimates, with headline PCE above 4%. Core strips out food and energy. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh told Congress earlier this month he's committed to the Fed's 2% inflation goal, and PCE doesn't appear to be cooperating, even with oil excluded. "The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged Thursday, but the balance of central banks hiking versus cutting rates has tipped into more central banks hiking rates, which tends to result in slower economic growth in the future," noted Michelle Gibley, director of international equity research and strategy at SCFR. Chances of a rate hike next week are 33.7%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
- Technical outlook looks weaker after losses: The S&P 500 Index fell back Thursday to below its 50-day moving average, now near 7,470. The 100-day moving average is still well below that at 7,172. Last month's closing low of 7,266 and this month's 7,354 may be worth keeping in mind on further drops. The SOX managed to escape the worst of yesterday's selling but remains below its own 50-day moving average, as does the Nasdaq-100® (NDX). At the same time, margin debt remains elevated, which could add to pressure if markets continue sagging. Checking the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, it's at 47 for the SOX and 41 for the NDX, both signs of bearish headwinds. For the NDX, yesterday's close was its lowest since June 11 and a drop below that would take it to places it hasn't been since early May.
On the move
- Intel was about 3% higher in pre-market trading after reporting earnings after the close Thursday. Revenue of $16.1 billion topped its own forecast of $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion. Earnings per share of $0.42 nearly doubled the consensus of $0.22, and guidance for third-quarter revenue came in above the FactSet consensus. Frenzied demand for central processing units helped send data center revenue up by 59% year over year.
- Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon (AMZN) all fell sharply Thursday as investors grew concerned they could get punished for their AI spending when they report next week, as Alphabet was yesterday.
- CSX (CSX) rang up 6% gains after the railway company topped earnings estimates and reported improved demand leading to better volume growth.
- American Express (AXP) fell more than 4% ahead of the open after reporting second-quarter revenue that missed expectations. Earnings topped estimates.
- Oracle (ORCL) rose nearly 2% in pre-market trading after the Pentagon announced a contract with the company on Thursday that should be worth almost $7 billion over the next decade.
- Deckers Outdoor (DECK) fell about 2% in early trading after reporting that first-quarter revenue came in line with consensus estimates. Revenue from its Hoka and Ugg brands missed expectations.
- Amkor Technology (AMKR) gained nearly 10% before the open after the semiconductor packing company said it had entered a $1.5 billion agreement with Nvidia (NVDA) to develop advanced semiconductor packaging and test technologies for next-generation AI and accelerated computing platforms.
- MaxLinear (MXL) shares fell more than 7% despite reporting better-than-expected second-quarter earnings and guidance that topped estimates.
- Tenet Healthcare (THC) jumped more than 15% pre-market after reporting earnings that easily topped estimates. Revenue and forward guidance also exceeded expectations.
- Software company SAP (SAP) gained about 5% in pre-market trading after reporting a 27% jump in its backlog and revenue that topped expectations.
More insights from Schwab
Striking the right balance: The importance of portfolio rebalancing, and how inflation, AI-investment spending, and consumer strength could shape both Fed policy and market performance in the months ahead are covered in the latest episode of our On Investing podcast.
Health market checkup: Coming earnings from major health care companies could reflect pressure from changing policy on insurance and care providers, while some pharma firms are enjoying benefits from obesity and diabetes drugs. Learn what to watch for in our second quarter health earnings preview.
Single-Stock ETFs primer: Leveraged and inverse single-stock ETFs have gained popularity since launching in the United States the summer of 2022. These funds pose unique risks and aren't for everyone. Learn about the basics in Schwab's newest article.
Mega backdoor Roth contributions: There's a workaround for high earners interested in Roth savings: The mega backdoor strategy, which involves making after-tax contributions to an employer-sponsored plan like a 401(k) and then converting the funds into a Roth account. Schwab's article details the strategy.
Chart of the day
Data source: FTSE Russell, S&P Dow Jones Indices. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
Small caps keep outpacing their larger brethren. The Russell 2000® Index (RUT—blue line), is up nearly 6% over the last three months, ahead of the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW—candlesticks). The S&P 500 Index itself (SPX—purple line) trails both.
The week ahead
Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
July 27: June durable orders, and expected earnings from Nucor (NUE).
July 28: June consumer confidence and expected earnings from Coca-Cola (KO), Boeing (BA), Corning (GLW), United Parcel Service (UPS), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), Visa (V), Seagate (STX), Waste Management (WM), Mondelez (MDLZ), Ford (F), and Teradyne (TER).
July 29: Fed rate decision and expected earnings from Procter & Gamble (PG), Vertiv (VRT), General Dynamics (GD), Aon (AON), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Lam Research (LRCX), Arm Holdings (ARM), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Starbucks (SBUX).
July 30: Q2 GDP first estimate, June PCE prices, June core PCE prices, June personal spending and personal income, and expected earnings from Mastercard (MA), Shell (SHEL), Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Altria (MO), Southern (SO), Sanofi (SNY), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Stryker (SYK).
July 31: University of Michigan final July consumer sentiment and expected earnings from ExxonMobil (XOM), AbbVie (ABBV), Chevron (CVX), Eaton (ETN), and Enbridge (ENB).