Nvidia Throws a Party but Few Attend as Rally Ebbs

Published as of: February 26, 2026, 9:22 a.m. ET

(Thursday market open) Nvidia's (NVDA) results and guidance easily exceeded Wall Street's consensus, capping a strong week so far in the tech sector. The cheerful news didn't lift Nvidia's shares much, and Wall Street's two-day rally showed signs of flagging early Thursday. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) appeared to lose steam as it approached the top of its near-term 6,800 to 7,000 trading range.

Salesforce (CRM) and Snowflake (SNOW) rounded out the tech trio in focus this morning, though these giant software firms also found that solid results weren't enough to push back on negative sentiment around their industry. Shifting to the economy, today's weekly initial jobless claims of 212,000 almost perfectly matched the Briefing.com consensus of 211,000 and stayed historically low, though hiring has also slowed over the past year. Tomorrow morning provides a fresh look at inflation, with analysts expecting 0.3% monthly growth for the January Producer Price Index (PPI). Annual PPI is seen at 3%, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% goal.

While Wednesday's session showed promise at the index level—the S&P 500 posted two-week highs and the Nasdaq soared—sector strength was less bountiful. The rally narrowed, with tech and financials far ahead and industrials and some other cyclical areas lagging. In trading today, the market might build in a bit more geopolitical risk as U.S. talks with Iran resume and the two sides appear far apart on Iran's nuclear program.

Deeper dive into Nvidia: Checking the scorecard, Nvidia reported fiscal fourth quarter earnings per share of $1.62 and revenue of $68.13 billion. Consensus was $1.53 a share and $66.1 billion. Guidance also topped expectations, with Nvidia projecting fiscal first quarter revenues between $76.44 billion and $79.56 billion, compared with analysts' projections of $72.6 billion. The important data center segment recorded 75% annual revenue growth. "Nvidia's beat for the quarter was good enough, which was largely expected," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "Gross margins were in line at 75%, which is good news given the concerns around memory pricing, and guidance for the upcoming quarter looks solid at $78 billion, plus or minus 2%, versus the LSEG estimate of $72.6 billion. Guidance that was $5 billion to $6 billion above estimates is very healthy, an indication of still strong demand for compute."

Volatility can be a matter of perspective: Though volatility has been considered slightly high with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) trading above 20 as recently as Tuesday, the reality is more nuanced. Yes, 20 is a benchmark that traditionally marks the divide between relative calm and choppiness. Yet even with the market's recent bumps, VIX has averaged just 17.5 year-to-date, putting it below average annual levels for all years this century. The same is true for the Move Index, the so-called "VIX for bonds." It's averaged 61.9 year-to-date through Tuesday, below the 25-year average near 90. One recent source of volatility—tariffs rising or falling on any given day for any given country—has eased due to the Supreme Court's decision last week. "What's clear is that this ruling has severely curtailed the president's ability to impose tariffs or increase or decrease an existing tariff at a moment's notice," said Michael Townsend, managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab. "And all the options that the president has announced he will use to impose tariffs going forward have serious restrictions like defined time limits or time-consuming administrative hurdles."

AI avoidance gains acceptance: Some investors are gravitating toward sectors that they perceive as less volatile, like utilities and real estate, part of a move toward companies that may be affected least by AI turmoil. A sign of the times was last week's announcement by Goldman Sachs (GS) that it's offering a new stock index for its clients that tracks S&P 500 companies minus so-called "AI enablers." The wide impact of AI is evident here, because the new index leaves out about 45% of the S&P 500. And Barron's noted that investors are embracing "HALO" stocks defined as "heavy assets, low obsolescence." Think fast-food chains and auto parts, or things people will need even if AI grows more prevalent. Food and beverage stocks, Barron's notes, have blown past the broader market year-to-date, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) have outpaced market gains over the past year. Brings back memories of piloting the Thunderbird to McDonald's (MCD).

Nvidia climbed 1.4% ahead of the open, helped by earnings and guidance that easily exceeded Wall Street's expectations. Some of the positive news may have been factored in, as Nvidia climbed over the last week heading into earnings, which could be limiting gains today. The $200 level could be a psychological barrier for shares, as Nvidia traded above that only a short time last October before dipping under $170 at one point last November.

Salesforce declined almost 3% in early trading despite easily exceeding analysts' earnings per share consensus and matching consensus on revenue. A cautious outlook appears to be the culprit. Its guidance for first quarter earnings and revenue narrowly beat consensus from FactSet, and guidance for fiscal 2027 appeared to miss some analysts' estimates. The company also increased its dividend, authorized a new share repurchase program, and reported strong annual growth for its Agentforce AI agent platform.

Snowflake edged up 1.6% after earnings and revenue topped analysts' estimates and the company delivered an outlook that generally appeared to impress. This marked a reversal from initial losses after the company reported.  

AutoDesk (ADSK) is the next software firm due to report, after today's close. While sentiment across the software industry remains negative due to AI substitution fears, Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang said yesterday those fears are overblown, CNBC reported.

Shares of chip companies associated with memory rose today after Nvidia CEO Huang mentioned soaring memory costs in the company's earnings call, Barron's reported. Sandisk (SNDK) climbed more than 2% while Micron (MU) gained 0.5%. Western Digital (WDC) rose 1.5%.

C3.ai (AI) tumbled 24% as revenue fell and losses widened in its most recent quarter.

IonQ (IONQ), a quantum-computing firm, soared 14% after quarterly revenue appeared to impress. Shares of Rigetti Computing (RGTI), also in the quantum arena, rose 3.9%.

Penn Entertainment (PENN) rolled up 7% gains early Thursday following a quarter that featured better-than-consensus earnings and revenue.

Stellantis (STLA) revved up 5% in early trading despite reporting a $26.3 billion annual loss thanks to an EV-related charge. Some improving numbers for the second half of last year appeared to soothe investors.

J. M. Smucker (SJM) climbed nearly 8% early today following an impressive earnings report. Numbers beat analysts' estimates for the jam maker.

Dell (DELL) inched up this morning as investors brace for earnings after the close. Dell's become an AI canary in the coalmine based on demand for its servers.

CoreWeave (CRWV) edged up today ahead of earnings due after today's close. It's also a solid barometer for AI demand, providing infrastructure for AI. Last time out, its guidance disappointed and the company discussed "a problem" with a third-party data center developer getting behind schedule, CNBC reported.

Home builder stocks tumbled Wednesday despite steady Treasury yields and the lowest mortgage rates in months. A soft outlook from home improvement firm Lowe's (LOW), which fell 5% Wednesday, appeared to weigh. Lowe's said on its call it expects improvement in housing and home improvement markets to be "gradual," Barron's reported.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield inched up Wednesday after a 5-year Treasury note auction drew tepid demand. It was the second auction this week where buyers seemed reluctant following a poorly received 2-year note auction Tuesday. While two auctions aren't a trend, more of the same next week could imply that participants have begun demanding higher yields for holding Treasuries, a bearish development. A 7-year auction is scheduled this morning.

As of early today, chances of a rate cut next month were virtually nil, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. "Treasury yields continue to tread water, caught between the resilience of the economy and potential for rate cuts down the road," said my colleague Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at SCFR. "However, the recent data domestically and globally suggest that there isn't a lot of room for yields to fall."

Bitcoin (/BTC) gave back 1.7% this morning after a 7% rally yesterday.

Technically, the S&P 500 Index appears in better shape after closing above its 50-day moving average of 6,896 on Wednesday. However, it accomplished that last Friday and then slipped under below it early this week. The chart shows a growing number of recent occasions where the index struggled to stay above that level.

For all the talk of a crypto winter, a weekly chart of bitcoin futures (/BTC—candlesticks) shows price holding above a long-term trendline (red line), at least for now. The Relative Strength Indicator (lower pane), set at 21 periods, is approaching oversold and has reached the lowest level since the 2022 downturn.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

February 27: January Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI.
March 2: January construction spending, February ISM Manufacturing PMI^®, and expected earnings from MongoDB (MDB).
March 3: Expected earnings from AutoZone (AZO), Target (TGT), Best Buy (BBY), CrowdStrike (CRWD), and Ross Stores (ROST).
March 4: February ADP Employment Report, February ISM Services PMI^®, Fed Beige Book, and expected earnings from Broadcom (AVGO).
March 5: Fourth quarter productivity-preliminary, January factory orders, and expected earnings from Ciena (CIEN), JD.com (JD), Kroger (KR), Costco (COST), and Marvell Technology (MRVL).