Rally Resumes After Holiday, Technical Glitch

Published as of: November 28, 2025, 9:12 a.m. ET

(Editor's note: Due to the 1:00 p.m. ET market close, today's Schwab Market Update is an abbreviated version. For late-breaking market news, please tune in to the Schwab Network, which will be broadcasting today from 8 a.m. until 1 p.m. ET.).

(Friday market open) What's traditionally one of the quietest trading days of the year became more hushed this morning when a technical issue halted futures trading at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The breakdown—which was mostly resolved an hour before the opening bell—means today's sparse population of post-holiday participants could face heightened volatility in a short session that ends at 1 p.m. ET. Once the glitch ended, stocks moved higher in early trading.

After the recent fierce comeback from November lows, the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq Composite remain on pace for their first losing months since April but almost clawed back all those losses by the end of the day Wednesday before yesterday's holiday closure. Today is barren of earnings and data, so focus is on Black Friday shopping and next week, when a cornucopia of numbers awaits statistics-hungry participants. Most notably, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation reading, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices loom next Friday, while other data in coming days include key readings on U.S. manufacturing, job cuts, and job growth. 

Major indexes rallied a fourth straight session Wednesday while the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield stayed at one-month lows of 4% and slipped just below that early today. The S&P 500 index drew support earlier this week from strength in chip stocks, retailers, and mining firms in a broad rally across most sectors. Rate cut hopes also helped. As of this morning, chances of a December rate cut stood at 83%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. With volume seen light today, any major slides or rallies might not reflect widespread investor conviction one way or the other. 

1. Spotlight turns to job market: There's no nonfarm payrolls report next week due to the shutdown. Still, investors can get a sense of the labor market through ADP's November private employment report next Wednesday and the Challenger job cuts report for November next Thursday. Earlier this week, ADP said jobs growth fell by 13,500 on average during the four weeks through early this month, and the October Challenger report saw layoffs surge 183% from September amid what it called "AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs…" The question is whether that was a one-month blip or something that will be extended, and how government employee layoffs might factor into the November report. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, released late Wednesday, showed economic activity "little changed" since the previous report across the 12 Fed districts. Consumer spending declined, but higher-end retail remained resilient, the Fed noted, backing similar observations from companies and Wall Street analysts lately.
    
2. Sector rotation could spill into December: Looking ahead to the final month of a turbulent year, sector action could remain volatile after November saw a rotation out of some tech names and into classic defensive areas like health care and staples. "Historically, the underperforming sectors tend to lag as we move to year-end, due to tax loss selling, and the outperforming sectors tend to be bought into year end, in part due to some window dressing," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy, Schwab Center for Financial Research. "So it's unclear whether we continue to see rotation away from tech or not." Window-dressing is a term referring to fund managers buying shares of high-performing stocks late in a quarter so they show up in the quarterly reports sent to clients.
    
3. Chop check: The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which popped briefly to one-month highs above 28 last week, fell slightly on Wednesday, dropping below 17, before shedding almost 6% in early action today. Typically, levels under 20 are associated with less investor caution and a better outlook for stocks, though that's far from guaranteed. VIX futures remain in contango, with contracts for early next year rising above 21 by February and then above 22 by April. This suggests market participants expect more choppiness ahead, not a bullish outlook when it comes to stocks. Bond market volatility could also pick up in the new year as more data roll in to replace today's blank pages left by the shutdown.

Nvidia (NVDA) edged slightly higher in pre-market trading but remains down double digits from recent highs amid rising competitive pressure. Chinese companies are training their AI models overseas to access Nvidia chips, the Financial Times reported. The goal, it said, is to avoid U.S. measures that attempt to limit Chinese progress to advanced AI applications.

Alphabet (GOOGL) stayed on a roll, climbing about 1% and still drawing strength from its recent Gemini 3 AI introduction and reports earlier this week that Meta Platforms (META) is considering using Alphabet's chips. A report from The Information this morning said Google plans to further encroach on Nvidia's turf with a new AI chip push.

CME Group (CME) is modestly lower following this morning's disruption in futures trading. 

SanDisk (SNDK) is up nearly 5% ahead of its addition to the S&P 500 index today. In the last six months, the tech company known for flash memory has rallied almost 500%. 

Strategy (MSTR), Circle Internet Group (CRCL) and Coinbase Global (COIN) all rose 2% to 4%. 

Tilray Brands (TLRY) is off more than 14% after announcing a reverse 1-for-10 stock split. 

Bitcoin (/BTC) climbed slightly to approach the $91,900 mark. 

Today is Black Friday, a traditional post-holiday shopping bonanza across the U.S. Several retail firms including Macy's (M), Best Buy (BBY), Amazon (AMZN), and Walmart (WMT) rose in early trading. A record 186.9 million people are expected to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year, the National Retail Federation said. That's up three million from the previous record set last year. Wednesday featured strength again in retail stocks after several solid earnings reports this week. 

Semiconductors charged back 2.75% on Wednesday despite market leader Nvidia  trailing many peers amid a return to risk-on action in tech. Airlines also did well as the Federal Aviation Administration anticipated the busiest Thanksgiving flight schedule in 15 years, the Associated Press reported.

The S&P 500 index is up 3.2% this week and would need a close above 6,840 today to finish higher for the month.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

December 1: November ISM Manufacturing Index, October construction spending

December 2: Expected earnings from Marvell Technology (MRVL) and CrowdStrike (CRWD).

December 3: ADP November employment, November ISM Services Index, September industrial production, and expected earnings from DollarTree (DLTR), Macy's (M), Salesforce (CRM), and Snowflake (SNOW).

December 4: November Challenger Job Cuts and expected earnings from Kroger (KR), Dollar General (DG), and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE).

December 5: September personal income and spending, September PCE and core PCE, October factory orders, and University of Michigan preliminary December consumer sentiment.