Stocks Down, Tracking for Another Losing Week

Published as of: March 20, 2026, 9:15 a.m. ET

(Friday market open) Stocks fell again this morning, on track for a fourth straight losing week The early retreat came despite weakness in oil after The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. war planes and helicopters are beginning an effort to re-open the critical Strait of Hormuz. Data and earnings are sparse, so war remains center stage along with concerns that rising inflation could spoil hopes for any rate cuts this year.

"PPI has come in hot two months in a row, so it's not just about Iran and higher oil prices, it's also about sticky inflation and market expectations around Fed policy," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). Odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year fell from 95% to less than 15% over the last month, affected by the oil surge but also by this week's surprisingly hot Producer Price Index (PPI) for February—data collected before the war began. Treasury yields rose again this morning to near recent peaks, another pressure point for stocks.

On Thursday, major indexes finished down but off their lows. A decline in crude oil that carried into this morning provided a tailwind after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel is helping the U.S. reopen the Strait. Reports that Europe and Japan are ready to assist as well also weighed on crude, as did today's headlines, though it could take weeks to clear traffic if the operation is successful, The Wall Steet Journal said. While pre-weekend war worries might keep traders cautious, the Fed is on their plates tomorrow when Chairman Jerome Powell makes brief award acceptance comments at a conference after the Fed left rates unchanged Wednesday.

1. Prices, growth pondered: Though inflation continues surging along with oil prices, a Bloomberg survey of analysts this week showed the average estimate for U.S. 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) growth remained healthy at 2.5%. GDP rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter of last year, according to the government's second estimate. Next week brings the government's final fourth quarter GDP estimate, which investors will watch for any further reduction. The last drop reflected weaker consumer spending, something to consider for the first quarter thanks to rising gas prices that could clip spending on other items. The Atlanta Fed's fresh GDPNow estimate arrived Thursday, showing first quarter GDP tracking at 2.3%, down from the prior 2.7%. As a reminder, first quarter GDP only reflects one month of war, so the impact of rising gas might be muted. Also, the U.S. isn't as dependent on gasoline as it once was on a per capita use basis.
    
2. Wall Street takes another step toward on-chain trading: The tokenization of U.S. financial markets moved closer to reality Wednesday when the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) granted the Nasdaq permission to let its customers decide, on a trade-by-trade basis, whether to settle trades in a traditional form or on the blockchain. The latter will offer much faster settlement, among other benefits. The Nasdaq will work with a subsidiary of the Depository Trust and Clearing Corp. (DTCC), the central settlement hub for U.S. stocks and fixed-income products, which itself received SEC approval in December to handle transactions of a limited number of tokenized securities, including stocks and Treasuries. Tokenized assets are represented purely in digital form and stored on a blockchain. Meanwhile, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, is seeking approval to build a blockchain-based platform for 24/7 trading of tokenized stocks and exchange-traded funds that could launch as soon as the second half of this year.
    
3. Dip buying largely absent as "triple witching" looms: Earlier this year, it seemed like almost every selloff quickly met "dip buying" at the 50-day and then the 100-day moving averages for the major U.S. indexes. Though a little showed up late yesterday, it's not as much of a factor since the war began, and that's hurt chart action. "Technically, there's obviously been deterioration," my colleague Peterson said. "The candlesticks on the charts have been shifting from dip buying eagerness in early March to closing at or near the lows." Yesterday's late rebound wasn't enough to save the S&P 500 Index from its date with a close below the 200-day moving average of 6,619—the first time that's happened since last May and another indicator of technical weakness. And lately, Friday's sessions have seen investors grow cautious, not necessarily wanting to take new long positions ahead of war developments over the weekend. Complicating matters further, today is "triple-witching day," when contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, and stock options all expire on the same day. This may lead to greater trading activity and increased volatility.

• FedEx (FDX) soared more than 7% early today after the delivery firm easily surpassed Wall Street's quarterly estimates and delivered better-than-expected guidance. The company's CEO said global demand is holding amid the war, Reuters reported.
   
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) toppled 26% after the U.S. government charged a co-founder of the company and two others with being involved in a plan to divert U.S.-assembled servers to China, violating export control laws, Barron's reported. One of those charged was the company's senior vice president of business development, also a co-founder and board member.
   
• Dell (DELL), which competes in the AI server market with Super Micro Computer, rose 4% ahead of the open.
   
• Arm Holdings (ARM) climbed 4% in early action following an upgrade to buy from reduce by HSBC. The analyst argues that Arm's transition from being a smartphone dependent semi-IP play to a "major" AI server and CPU beneficiary is "still being undervalued by the market."
   
• Planet Labs (PL) surged 20% in early trading on strong earnings and guidance.
   
• Checking technical matters, it would take a close today of 6,632.92 or above for the S&P 500 Index to avoid its fourth losing week in a row, and a close of 24,380 for the tech-focused Nasdaq-100^® (NDX). Both neared those levels in late trading Thursday.
   
• Many semiconductor chip stocks fell this morning after yesterday's rebound. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) and Western Digital (WDC) were down nearly 1%.
   
• Falling rate cut odds also hit gold, sending the metal down almost 5% Thursday and hurting shares of precious metal miners. Silver and copper also fell, hurt by worries about demand if the global economy slows. Alcoa (AA) fell 8.7% and Newmont (NEM) dropped 7.5% yesterday. Gold edged higher this morning along with silver.
   
• In addition to declining odds of a Fed rate cut, investors have started building in chances for rate hikes, with about 12% chances the Fed raises rates once by the end of the year and 0.5% chances it raises rates twice, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. In a CNBC interview this morning, Fed Gov. Christopher Waller said he's concerned crude prices could bleed into core inflation readings but might support a rate cut later this year if the war ends well.

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Copper (/HG—candlesticks) is back to pre-war levels below $6 per pound and nearing its 200-day moving average (blue line) amid concerns that a prolonged Middle East war might hurt demand for industrial metals. Silver (/SI—purple line) also fell Thursday and are down sharply from recent peaks. Long-term higher oil prices could hurt economic growth or even reverse it in some countries. Copper is vital for semiconductor manufacturing, and for that reason it can sometimes be a helpful barometer of chip demand, which in turn can be a useful barometer of economic health around the world. Copper is still up more than 34% from the end of 2024.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

March 23: January construction spending.
March 24: Expected earnings from GameStop (GME) and KB Home (KBH).
March 25: February durable goods orders and expected earnings from Cintas (CTAS), Paychex (PAYX), and Chewy (CHWY).
March 26: No major earnings or data expected.
March 27: Fourth quarter GDP—third estimate and University of Michigan final March Consumer Sentiment.