Stocks Higher Early on Easing Consumer Price Data

Published as of: July 14, 2026, 9:15 a.m. ET

(Tuesday market open) Bastille Day opens with a salvo on Wall Street, including bank earnings and June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. CPI came in better than expected at -0.4% monthly, while core CPI, excluding food and energy, was flat. In a caveat, the headline figure reflected falling oil prices last month that have since recharged double digits, but major indexes mostly climbed early on the data.

The fireworks aren't over. Investors brace for Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's remarks to Congress, and crude oil topped $80 per barrel after Iran and the U.S. traded attacks overnight and the U.S. reinstated its blockade on Iranian oil. Crude is up 16% from the recent low, which could hurt consumer and transport stocks. Big bank shares were mixed early following earnings that generally impressed, with solid results from their Wall Street trading and underwriting businesses.

Major indexes fell Monday as risk sentiment retreated in the wake of Middle East violence and a subsequent 9% surge in oil prices. The volatile chip sector dropped almost 5%, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) is down 15% from its late-June peak. Just before today's open, Warsh released his remarks and sounded hawkish, saying, "The members of our committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation." Still, Treasury yields slipped on the CPI news.

1. CPI deeper dive: On an annual basis, headline inflation of 3.5% descended sharply from May's three-year high of 4.2% and was below Wall Street's expectation of 3.8%. The core rate fell to 2.6% annually, below the 2.9% expectation. Monthly numbers were down significantly from their May increases of 0.5% and 0.2% for headline CPI. "One month does not make a trend, but it was good news on CPI," said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "The easing in headline was largely expected due to energy prices, but the decline in core from May was welcomed. It likely means the Fed won't be in a rush to hike rates." Checking beneath the surface, energy prices fell 5.7% monthly following the ceasefire with Iran but food rose 3% year over year. Shelter prices rose 0.1% month over month.
    
2. Warsh watch: What Warsh says about the U.S. inflation and overall economy when he addresses Congress at 10 a.m. ET in his first appearance as Fed chairman could help shape today's trading. "Warsh's debut testimony is a wildcard," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at SCFR. "The Fed's internal 'family fight' is over hiking versus holding, with the market pricing in a possible 25-basis point hike by September. With Warsh having committed to less communication, every word will get amplified." Sonders also noted the divergence in the CPI data: headline inflation is falling but core inflation is accelerating, which Warsh might be asked about. Other topics include consumer spending and the path of the economy. In his prepared remarks, Warsh said economic activity is "expanding at a solid pace, showing resilience" and business investment is strong. Retail sales data for June is due Thursday and could provide color on more recent consumer trends, with the stock market's "wealth effect" possibly driving spending among the upper echelon of earners. In a related development, Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated Monday he might favor a rate hike if core inflation stayed hot, doubling odds of a July hike to 63% from where it stood Friday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
    
3. Yield sign is up: Treasuries are another wild card this week, with the 10-year yield closing Monday above 4.6% for the first time since late May before falling below that this morning.  There aren't any major auctions scheduled this week, but worries about a weak Japanese yen are one of many potential pressures on bonds, including from overseas. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) meets at the end of the month and could be under pressure to take measures to protect the currency. If it does, it could raise yields there, perhaps sparking more competition in the bond market and hurting U.S. Treasuries, which move the opposite way of yields. One measure of relief came last week as several large U.S. Treasury auctions saw solid demand. "Treasury auctions generally went well last week," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at SCFR. "That’s a good sign given all the supply we have seen lately. The large supply of both Treasuries and corporate bonds, along with some large initial public offerings on the calendar, means there’s a lot of competition for capital."

• JPMorgan Chase (JPM) fell almost 3% despite posting its best quarterly profit ever, with net income of $21.2 billion, or $7.70 per share as equity trading revenue climbed 86% year over year. Shares came under pressure due to higher cost projections and a warning from CEO Jamie Dimon about "sticky inflation" and geopolitical tensions. Investment banking was a source of quarterly strength and net interest income (NII) rose 10%.
   
• Citigroup (C) slipped 1.6% despite exceeding analysts' estimates almost across the board and pulling in record quarterly revenue, according to Bloomberg. Equities trading revenue jumped 45% year over year, though that was slightly below growth from JPM. The credit card business slightly missed estimates.
   
• Goldman Sachs (GS) climbed nearly 3% on earnings that blew past Wall Street's estimates powered by the company's underwriting business. Goldman's quarter reflected strong revenue related to initial public offerings (IPO), including that of SpaceX (SPCX).
   
• Bank of America (BAC) slid 1.8% despite a quarter that surpassed analysts' expectations thanks in part to a 70% year-over-year jump in equity trading revenue. Overall, earnings per share of $1.21 topped the $1.12 consensus, while NII rose 9%. Investment banking revenue also tore past Bloomberg's estimate, and the company noted a rise in commercial borrowing.
   
• Wells Fargo (WFC) eased more than 2% in early trading despite a quarter that beat expectations amid strength in wealth management and investment banking. Wells Fargo kept its full-year NII guidance unchanged, Bloomberg reported, which may have disappointed investors after an in-line quarter from an NII standpoint.
   
• IBM (IBM) crumbled more than 22% this morning after the company said it expects second quarter earnings per share of $2.93 on revenue of $17.2 billion, both below Wall Street's consensus views. Lower-than-expected growth in the company's software and infrastructure business led to the shortfall, the company said in a letter to investors. Customers shifted their spending to memory chips. IBM's struggles hurt the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
   
• Software stocks, which climbed yesterday as chips descended, reversed course early today with large drops for Workday (WDAY), Salesforce (CRM) and Adobe (ADBE) of 9%, 6% and 5%, respectively, after IBM reported softness in that part of its business.
   
• Chip stocks reversed Monday's losses early to power the Nasdaq higher. Leading the way was South Korean memory chip maker SK Hynix (SKHY), which posted a nearly 7% rise ahead of the open following yesterday's double-digit losses.
   
• Memory names Sandisk (SNDK) and Western Digital (WDC) rose 3% to 4%. This followed a turnaround in the chip-heavy South Korean stock market from early losses to an appreciable late-day gain. Separately, Bloomberg reported that South Korea's Samsung is exploring a potential U.S. stock listing.
   
• SpaceX (SPXC) inched higher this morning after a 4% decline yesterday that took shares below their opening trade price of $150 per share. The IPO price was $135, meaning anyone who obtained shares at the IPO level has yet to suffer any losses. One source of pressure on the stock has been potential competition from China in the launch business, Barron's reported.

What to watch as banks report: This morning's results from the big banks came after bullish forecasts from analysts who follow the sector. Learn some of the metrics Wall Street is watching, including IPO trends, net-interest income, and trading volume, in Schwab's look at the bank earnings season.

Retail sales loom: For clues about economic growth, investors might want to check June retail sales this Thursday, notes Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at SCFR, in his new Week Ahead video. He notes that control group retail sales, which strip out more volatile elements, have remained resilient and feed directly into gross domestic product.

Got stock? Plan for it: Equity compensation should fit within your broader financial goals. Schwab's analysis looks at concepts like whether to hold or sell it, tax planning, risk, and more.

Navigating the global earnings boom: Corporate earnings have surged in recent quarters, but have also been unusually concentrated. Schwab's article examines how investors might traverse the opportunities and risks.

Schwab's money-saving travel tips: For anyone planning a dream overseas trip, there are plenty of ways to save money by doing things like avoiding transaction fees and finding the best exchange rate. Schwab's article lists six how-to tips.

Gold is not glittering. Gold futures (/GC—candlestick) hovered just above $4,000 an ounce by late Monday, well below the 50-day moving average (blue line), as the 10-year Treasury yield (TNX:CGI—purple line) ticked above 4.6% to its highest level in almost two months. Treasury yields climbed as oil prices surged and inflation concerns intensified, leading to growing market expectations of a possible July Fed rate hike. Higher U.S. interest rates are typically bearish for gold.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.

July 15: June PPI and core PPI, Fed Beige Book, and expected earnings from ASML (ASML), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Morgan Stanley (MS), BlackRock (BLK), Progressive (PGR), Bank of New York Mellon (BNY), PNC Financial Services (PNC), Kinder Morgan (KMI), United Airlines (UAL), and J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT).
July 16: Expected earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), GE Aerospace (GE), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), US Bancorp (USB), Netflix (NFLX), and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG).
July 17: June housing starts, June building permits, June industrial production, July preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and expected earnings from Travelers (TRV), Truist Financial (TFC), and Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB).
July 20: No major earnings or data expected.
July 21: Expected earnings from Novartis AG (NVS), Danaher (DHR), Marsh & McLennan (MRSH), 3M (MMM), Northrop Grumman (NOC), General Motors (GM), MSCI (MSCI), D.R. Horton (DHI), Halliburton (HAL), Chubb (CB), and Capital One (COF).