Stocks Up on Oil, Yields, Tracking for Weekly Rise

Published as of: September 25, 2026, 9:13 a.m. ET

(Friday market open) Stocks edged up early, keeping the S&P 500 Index on pace for a positive week despite the dramatic rally in yields. Hopes for Middle East progress sent oil down while meetings between U.S. and Chinese leaders failed to forge any trade breakthroughs. Consumer sentiment data arrives after the open and the earnings calendar is empty, potentially keeping geopolitics front and center.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield gave back its steepest overnight gains, aiding stocks, but remains near 19-year highs. Still, major indexes have been resilient, possibly because the yield climb has been relatively orderly, inflation is just slightly high, and economic conditions haven't deteriorated. A host of data next week—including a fresh monthly jobs report—puts the economy center stage and could help set the tone, while earnings from Micron (MU) and Nike (NKE) also might stir interest.  

On Thursday, major indexes finished mostly down but off their intraday lows. U.S. crude added another 3% despite a Reuters report that the U.S. and Iran had discussed a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to the U.S. blockade of Iran. Separately, NBC News reported that Iran's president said he's willing to make a deal before the U.S. mid-term election. These developments continued to intrigue Wall Street early today, though no solid progress was reported.

1. Data gauntlet next week has yield, rate implications: Robust U.S. data the last few weeks helped set the stage for the yield rally. It also arguably raised the profile of several key data points on next week's calendar, notably Wednesday's August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and Thursday's September ISM Manufacturing PMI^®. It's arguably back to a "good is bad" scenario, at least concerning the bond environment, as each new robust data point could send yields up while raising certainty about a Fed rate hike next month. Early today, odds of an October rate increase were 66%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Next Tuesday's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report and next Friday's nonfarm payrolls report also have rate implications. "If the labor market remains stable, it just takes pressure away from that side of the mandate and allows the Fed to focus more on inflation and raise if necessary," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR).
    
2. Yield rise reflects positives, too: Though fast-rising yields this year likely shocked investors and certainly reversed hopes for rate cuts many harbored, it's not as if 5% yields are necessarily kryptonite for the stock market. In many ways, they could be seen as good news because they partly reflect resilient growth despite the rise in oil that's kept inflation simmering. Also, the term premium, or the extra compensation investors receive for investing in longer-term Treasuries, hasn't risen too much, suggesting U.S. fiscal concerns aren't a key driver. Besides recent manufacturing and services economy strength, there's been good news on retail sales and jobs growth recently. As of Thursday, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool for third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth stood at 5.1%. That's a running estimate that should be checked again after next week's data. Also, earnings growth has been more than solid, keeping the stock market near record highs. "Treasury yields can rise for good or bad reasons, and I don't necessarily think they're rising for bad reasons," my colleague Martin said in a podcast Thursday.
    
3. Bond market's impact on stocks tracked: From an investor's perspective, Fed rate hikes could pull up the yields on short-term investments. When the yields on Treasury bills, short-term certificates of deposit, and money market funds rise, they compete more with the stock market for investor cash, another potential challenge for Wall Street. Certain sectors, notably utilities and staples that tend to offer dividends, tend to lose ground. Small-cap stocks also backtracked this week, along with growth areas like tech. Stocks with heavy borrowing needs or with earnings growth that's expected to take longer can be more sensitive to rising long-term yields, which may clip profits or even delay or prevent planned projects. That's possibly why Bloomberg's report yesterday on Oracle (ORCL) declaring "force majeure" on a data center under construction raised Wall Street's hackles. It reinforces ideas that borrowing could be a problem for the tech sector if yields keep climbing. Oracle borrowed heavily to finance expansion of its AI footprint, and it's far from alone among big tech.

• Costco (COST) slipped ahead of the open despite earnings late Thursday that topped estimates. Investors seemed to focus on the membership revenue growth rate, which slowed again.
   
• Akamai Technologies (AKAM) popped almost 17% early today, lifted by a seven-year, $12 billion deal it signed with Anthropic for its cloud infrastructure services, Barron's said.
   
• Nike (NKE) fell 2% early after getting downgraded by Bank of America to underperform from neutral. The analyst sees downside risk to earnings estimates and valuation, saying the company's turnaround is taking longer than expected.
   
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) climbed 2% in early trading after Bank of America raised its price target on the stock, citing support from CPU importance in the agentic era.
   
• Other chip and AI infrastructure stocks moved mostly higher this morning, led by Arm Holdings (ARM) up 5%. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) remains above its 50-day moving average, a constructive sign.
   
• MGM Resorts (MGM) fell 11% Thursday after a takeover offer was rescinded.
   
• Nebius Group (NBIS) rose 7.4% Thursday when Bank of America lifted its forecast for revenue from the company over the 2026-2028 period.
   
• Meta Platforms (META) rose another 4% Thursday as two Wall Street firms raised price targets on the company, citing momentum from Meta's Muse AI agent.
   
• Yesterday's 7-year Treasury note auction wrapped up the week's slate with a thud as demand looked soft, Briefing.com reported. Foreign demand was particularly disappointing.  That followed soft demand for a 5-year note auction Wednesday that also pushed yields higher.
   
• In data today, August durable goods orders were flat from July but up 0.3% excluding transportation.

The recent jump in the 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX:CGI—purple line) hasn't had much impact on the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX—candlesticks). That's in contrast to a few months ago when the two moved more in sync, though correlation isn't causation. It suggests that investors may be comfortable with the current level of stocks near all-time highs, looking past the yield rally and focusing on strong earnings growth. 

September 28: Expected earnings from Jefferies Financial Group (JEF).
September 29: August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and consumer confidence for September.
September 30: ADP September employment change, August PCE prices, second quarter GDP-third estimate, and expected earnings from Micron (MU), Conagra (CAG), and Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI).
October 1: August construction spending, September ISM Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global final September U.S. Manufacturing PMI, and expected earnings from Accenture (ACN), McCormick & Company (MKC), and Nike (NKE).
October 2: September nonfarm payrolls, September unemployment, and August factory orders.