Tech Up Early Despite Apple's Drop on Election Day

Published as of: November 3, 2026, 9:16 a.m. ET

(Tuesday market open) After months of campaigning, it's U.S. election day and results could change congressional leadership. Stocks mostly rose early with tech rebounding from heavy losses, and participants might stay on edge during the vote count. At the same time, tech remains front and center after Apple's (AAPL) margin guidance disappointed. More tech earnings arrive later.

"The U.S. midterm elections likely will return the House to Democratic control while late momentum has moved Democrats to a slight favorite to capture the majority in the Senate as well," said Michael Townsend, Schwab's managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs. Volatility rose today, possibly on the election but also as crude initially ticked up on reports of what the U.S. called a "defensive" attack on Iran's Qeshm Island. Crude then dropped on hopes for diplomatic progress.

A promising early rally Monday got hijacked by fresh chip and AI selling at midday that sank the S&P 500 Index and the tech-packed Nasdaq. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW), which weighs all components equally, rose again and outpaced the S&P 500 as rotation from tech continued. Consumer stocks gained, oil fell and yields backtracked to eight-week lows. Small caps also suffered less damage.

1. Apple tops expectations, gets sold anyway: At first glance, Apple seemed to offer bulls plenty of nutrition. Still, shares retreated 4% in a tech market where "sell first" seems dominant. Participants are worried about margin, which Apple said could narrow to 45% to 46% in the current quarter due to high memory chip prices. Analysts had expected 46.5%. Even beyond that, Apple had a high bar considering its historically lofty valuation. Results beat consensus across the board, with iPhone and services revenue of $57.6 billion and $31.6 billion surpassing estimates of $56.6 billion and $31.5 billion, respectively. Quarterly iPhone sales climbed 15% annually. Earnings per share of $2.10 beat consensus of $1.99. Revenue of $114.5 billion topped the $113.4 billion consensus from FactSet. More tech reports arrive later including Arm Holdings (ARM) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Both are chip barometers, with AMD's results possibly providing clarity for competitor Nvidia (NVDA) before its earnings later this month. Arm competes with Intel (INTC), shares of which tumbled 29% Friday and another 9% Monday as guidance disappointed. Intel cited issues in the PC market, also served by Arm.
    
2. Jobs week underway: Besides tech earnings, this week is packed with jobs data. It starts at 10 a.m. ET today with the September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), expected to show 7.13 million openings, barely changed from August. The quit rate, also closely watched, is expected to be near 3.05 million, also near August's level. A drop in openings or quits might be seen as a sign of tightening labor conditions, possibly bearish for the economy. Tomorrow morning brings the ADP employment change report for October after September's strong 90,000 gain. Friday's October nonfarm payrolls consensus is moderate at 65,000, though it's the sort of number that might be in the "Goldilocks" range as far as the Federal Reserve is concerned, not showing jobs growth drying up but also not indicating potential wage-propelled inflation. September growth was lackluster at 29,000. The Fed gets October inflation data next week and another jobs report early next month before its December rate decision and several policymakers sounded hawkish recently. Odds of a December hike are 77% according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
    
3. Seasonals, post-election moves seen as tailwinds: Emerging from last week's sell-off, there are some positive signals for Wall Street assuming election results don't set off new fireworks. First, this is historically a solid time of year for stocks, and October's sell-off could fuel some buy-the-dip sentiment. "Seasonality is in the bulls' favor, as November and December are two of the most bullish months, historically," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "After we get past the midterm elections, there could be a 'buy on the news' response, regardless of the outcome." Also, it's hard to argue that corporate fundamentals aren't generally healthy with S&P 500 earnings per share growth above 29% year-over-year with around two-thirds of S&P firms reporting. And though personal spending remains a concern considering inflation outpacing wage growth in some recent months, the recent drop in borrowing costs might be a tailwind as consumers start their holiday shopping. It is hard to say how long it might take, however, for lower yields to be reflected in mortgages and costs for other big items like cars.

• Palantir (PLTR) dropped 6.6% early despite beating estimates on both earnings and revenue. Revenue guidance topped consensus. However, CNBC reported, Palantir reported a slowdown in U.S. commercial total contract value bookings growth. Additionally, commercial revenue topped government revenue for the first time, helped by AI tools.
   
• Even as Apple and Palantir struggled after results, many chip and AI-related stocks showed early strength despite overnight weakness in South Korea's influential market. Yesterday's early tech rally didn't last. Stocks climbing 3% or more included Sandisk (SNDK), Micron (MU), Intel, Applied Materials (AMAT), AMD, and Arm.
   
• Bloom Energy (BE) rose 6% ahead of the open after getting an upgrade to overweight from equal weight by Barclays. The firm says Bloom's accelerating capacity build, rising customer deposits and new supply commitments indicate demand ramping faster than expected.
   
• Fiserv (FISV) catapulted almost 10% early after quarterly results for the financial technology firm beat consensus and the company announced a $500 million share repurchase.
   
• Cloudflare (NET) rose 2% on a JPMorgan Chase upgrade to overweight from neutral based on valuation.
   
• Shopify (SHOP) plunged 15% early even though earnings outpaced expectations. Revenue came in just short of consensus, up 32% year over year.
   
• IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX) climbed 21% Monday on earnings that surpassed consensus for the veterinary diagnostics company.
   
• Eight of 11 S&P sectors rose Monday, pushing breadth wider. About 61% of S&P 500 components now trade above their 50-day moving averages, up from 20% a month ago. Only tech and energy suffered major losses Monday, and by midday advancing shares outnumbered decliners by a three-to-one margin.
   
• In a sign of how devastating the tech sell-off has been, 51% of Nasdaq-100^® (NDX) stocks are in a bear market, down 20% or more from recent highs. The index is officially in correction, off 10% from its October 6 peak and hovering just above its 200-day moving average.

Technical update: Check Schwab's Technical Analysis Weekly for a look at all the charts, indicators, and support and resistance affecting major indexes. Highlights include defensive and late-cycle leadership, notable improvements in market breadth, and a sharp increase in implied volatility.

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The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX—candlesticks), seen on this two-year chart, has certainly suffered some dramatic slides over this stretch. That said, the recent 15% drop since late September took it to its lowest point since late April and below its 200-day moving average (green line) for the first time since the middle of last year, a technically bearish development that could be hastening selling.

November 4: ADP October employment change, October ISM Services PMI^®, and expected earnings from McDonald's (MCD), Uber (UBER), Novo Nordisk (NVO), CVS Health (CVS), Datadog (DDOG), Arm Holdings (ARM), Qualcomm (QCOM), McKesson (MCK), AppLovin (APP), Motorola (MSI), DoorDash (DASH), and Allstate (ALL).
November 5: Third quarter productivity-preliminary, Challenger job cuts, and expected earnings from ConocoPhillips (COP), Sony Group (SONY), Southern (SO), Duke Energy (DUK), Cloudflare (NET), Airbnb (ABNB), Monster Beverage (MNST), and Lumentum (LITE).
November 6: October nonfarm payrolls, October unemployment, preliminary November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and expected earnings from Enbridge (ENB), Moderna (MRNA), Humana (HUM), and Vistra (VST).
November 9: Expected earnings from Constellation Energy (CEG) and Barrick Mining (B).
November 10: October CPI and core CPI and expected earnings from CoreWeave (CRWV) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI).