Major Indexes Muted Early, Retail Sales Solid

Published as of: June 17, 2026, 9:13 a.m. ET

(Wednesday market open) Retail sales surged in May despite the war, up 0.9% from April versus expectations for 0.5% and April's 0.4% rise. Major indexes tracked flat to higher early today as chips began recovering from Tuesday's slide, though yields stayed slightly up and held gains after the robust data reinforced impressions of a solid economy.

New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh steps into the spotlight later today at a Fed meeting where rates aren't expected to change but the overall atmosphere could evolve appreciably. Barring geopolitical rumblings, major indexes may trade in a tight range ahead of the Warsh press conference expected after the Fed's 2 p.m. ET decision.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied within a hair's breadth of 52,000, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite pared recent gains. Seven of 11 S&P 500 sectors closed higher. The Fed meeting is the last major item on this week's schedule excepting a few minor earnings reports, and U.S. markets are closed Friday for Juneteenth. This could potentially mean choppy trading, especially tomorrow, as investors react to the Fed and options expire on what's traditionally called the quarterly "triple witching" day.

1. Retail sales deeper dive: It might be interesting to hear if Warsh addresses recent strong economic reports like retail sales. "The report was better than expected and suggests that higher gas prices aren't pinching the consumer yet," said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). Retail sales data doesn't adjust for inflation, so higher prices did affect the headline number, as did heavy spending at gas stations. That said, the control group, which excludes sales from auto dealers, building materials stores, and gas stations, rose 0.7% from April, topping expectations. The control group feeds directly into gross domestic product (GDP) and suggests "we may see another period of positive economic growth despite higher oil prices and the war in Iran," Howard said. The report looked solid across the board, he added. Sales were strong at furniture stores, general merchandise stores, and "nonstore" retailers, which include e-commerce. Recent jobs and manufacturing data also looked solid, though consumer sentiment remains historically low, inflation is elevated, and job openings have fallen significantly.
    
2. Fed seen unlikely to project rate hike in 2026: Today's Fed meeting brings new central bank economic and rate projections, including its "dot plot" of where policymakers expect rates to move over the next few years. The last dot plot, in March, showed a rate cut expected sometime this year. That's likely to be discarded, but a hike is also seen as unlikely in 2026. "The previous dot plot projected one cut, with seven officials projecting no change," said Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at SCFR. "It wouldn’t take many upward revisions for the median dot to shift to 'no change,' and we know from comments from various officials that there is very little appetite for a cut in the near-term." Futures trading pegs chances of at least one hike this year at 60%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Today's meeting isn't expected to feature a shift in rate policy, with nearly 100% chance of a pause. 
    
3. Fed's economic forecast in focus: Another thing investors might want to focus on after today's Fed meeting is the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which in March pegged 2026 core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation at 2.7%, up from the prior 2.4%. While core prices extract volatile oil and food, it's possible this number could rise slightly considering recent inflation reports showing little cooling in prices. In March, the Fed saw core PCE at 2.2% next year and reaching the central bank's 2% goal in 2028. Today could reveal if that might require a longer wait. Also worth watching is whether the Fed's statement removes "easing" language that three dissenters decried at the April meeting. Then there's Warsh himself. This is his first public speaking appearance since taking charge last month, and investors will likely try to glean almost every word he says about where the economy and rates might be headed. That was true with Powell, as well, but Warsh is expected to take a more dovish view. He's likely to be asked about his stated preference for "trimmed" inflation gauges—specifically, the Dallas Fed's trimmed mean PCE and the Cleveland Fed's median PCE—which eliminate extreme price moves up or down. Many policymakers seem skeptical about basing policy on those indicators. 

• CarMax (KMX) inched up almost 1%, after the vehicle retailer reported earnings that surpassed Wall Street's expectations. Combined resale and wholesale unit sales during the quarter rose 3.3%. But gross profit margin per retail used unit declined from a year ago as the company took "pricing actions" to drive improved sales.
   
• Micron (MU) rebounded 3% in early trading after yesterday's 6% decline. Shares are up more than 800% over the last year and hit a record close on Monday, with some analysts raising their price targets earlier this week. The company is expected to report next Wednesday, and gross margins could be in focus.
   
• Other chip firms also rebounded early from Tuesday's losses. The comeback included shares of Lumentum (LITE), up 1.7% today after yesterday's 8% drop. Intel (INTC) climbed 3.6% after CNBC reported the company has begun production of its most advanced chip node, part of an effort to produce chips for other companies.
   
• SpaceX (SPCX) zoomed above $200 per share on Tuesday and clinched the No. 6 spot on the list of the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S. In pre-market trading, shares rose another 4.8%.
   
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) jumped nearly 5% in early trading after SpaceX said it had put three ASTS satellites into orbit, though operational status has yet to be determined. SpaceX provides launch services for ASTS but also wants to compete with it in providing broadband-quality connections from space for mobile phones, Barron's said.
   
• Moderna (MRNA) rallied 6% yesterday and another 1% this morning on news that its mRNA-based seasonal flu shot demonstrated an immune response, per the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
   
• La-Z-Boy (LZB) surged nearly 17% in the early going after the furniture maker topped earnings consensus. Quarterly sales appeared in line with expectations, while guidance for the current quarter slightly exceeds consensus.
   
• Lionsgate Studios (LION) dropped 6% this morning after yesterday's surge that followed reports it might be acquired by Netflix (NFLX). However, Netflix later denied those reports, CNBC said.
   
• CME (CME) shares dropped 4% in early trading after the company announced CEO Terry Duffy will step down from that position early next year. He's led the CME Group for more than 25 years.
   
• Yesterday's slight rotation out of tech put pressure on the tech-weighted S&P 500 Index, which fell 0.57%. Even so, a majority of New York Stock Exchange components advanced and new 52-week highs outpaced new 52-week lows, both signs of strength under the surface and beyond the tech sector.

Two minutes on bonds: What can fixed-income watchers expect during the back half of 2026? Schwab's short video shares some insights.

Tracking CME crude oil futures now (/CL—red line) versus a month ago (yellow line) illustrates that market participants currently expect a mild drop over the coming seven months to around $72 per barrel by next February. The compares with a month ago, when the curve fell much more sharply but to $80 per barrel by the same point.

Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week. 

June 18: Expected earnings from Accenture (ACN) and Kroger (KR).
June 19: U.S. markets closed for Juneteenth holiday.
June 22: No major earnings or data expected.
June 23: Expected earnings from Carnival (CCL) and FedEx (FDX).
June 24: May new home sales, Fed bank stress test results, and expected earnings from Micron (MU), Paychex (PAYX), and Jefferies Financial (JEF).