Crude in Control: Stocks Stumble as Diplomacy Eyed
Published as of: September 23, 2026, 9:11 a.m. ET
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| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® Index | 7,764.64 | -0.06 | Unch |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® | 51,863.69 | -185.14 | -0.36% |
| Nasdaq Composite® | 27,244.28 | +122.18 | +0.45% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.99% | +0.02 | -- |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 100.96 | +0.36 | +0.36% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® | 14.31 | +0.10 | +0.70% |
| Gold | $4,339.90 | -$36 | -0.83% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $90.76 | +$0.24 | +0.27% |
| Bitcoin | $85,445 | -$845 | -0.98% |
(Wednesday market open) Crude directed traffic on Wall Street this morning as investors tracked diplomatic progress at the United Nations and awaited weekly U.S. supply data. Oil futures ticked up overnight after initially falling, hurting U.S. stock indexes and Treasuries early. Competing news remained thin.
Iran's president addressed the United Nations today after President Trump again threatened Iran in a UN speech yesterday but also noted lower-level talks. Trump meets Chinese President Xi tomorrow with trade a likely topic. Staying on the speaker circuit, Fed Gov. Michael S. Barr addresses a conference today and topics include the economic outlook. "We expect the Fed to hike one more time this year and again either later this year or early next year, depending on the pace and breadth of inflation," said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR).
On Tuesday, major indexes finished mixed, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq forging record highs again but the S&P 500 Index flat. Just five of 11 S&P 500 sectors rose, and more stocks made new lows than highs. There's light data today, notably September's S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI soon after the open. Consensus is 53.6. Anything above 50 marks expansion, and 53.9 was last month's tally.
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Three things to watch
- China trade, oil buying in focus: Geopolitics—especially oil prices and their impact on Treasury yields—dominate the scene this week, with market leadership alternating back and forth between energy and tech names. The highlight is tomorrow when President Trump is scheduled to meet China's President Xi-Jin Ping at a bilateral summit in Washington, D.C. Xi might want to address Iran when he talks to Trump. "The Trump-Xi meeting will focus on trade, AI safety, and Iranian crude," said Michelle Gibley, director of international equity research and strategy at SCFR. "One positive outcome could be reciprocal tariff relief for U.S. agricultural products and Chinese low-tech consumer goods." China has resumed oil imports after cutting back earlier in the Iran war, Gibley added. In the longer run, this could mean tighter supplies if Chinese buying accelerates before the Middle East supply situation steadies. The market got some cheer this week from Saudi Arabia restarting the East-West pipeline, but it's a low rate, according to Reuters.
- Spooky spending season underway: Retail earnings ended a while ago. That doesn't mean it's a dead season in the sector. It's just a month until Halloween, traditionally a healthy barometer of consumer enthusiasm before holiday shopping season. Last year saw record U.S. Halloween spending of $13.1 billion, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF), as costumes, candy, and decorations stayed popular. Generally, Halloween shopping begins earlier these days, with store displays appearing soon after the end of back-to-school shopping season. Nearly half of shoppers begin stocking up for Halloween before October, the NRF said. What's unclear is whether shoppers facing inflation for everyday goods will be motivated to spend extra this year, whether that means an additional bag of candy or a costume for their pets, not just the kids. The NRF's latest survey showed 43% of consumers more focused on "needs" than "wants." Companies to watch in the lead-up to Halloween include Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Amazon (AMZN). Amazon's "Prime Big Deal Days" event in early October might be a harbinger.
- Auctions tracker: Treasury auctions often float below investors' radar, but with Treasury yields near three-year highs and corporate debt increasingly competing for investor funds, the auctions can affect markets. Yesterday's $69 billion 2-year Treasury note auction drew the highest yield in more than two years at 4.787% but also saw solid demand. Treasury yields inched up afterward. Today brings a 5-year note auction followed by a 7-year tomorrow. Results generally become available around midday. "Buyers appear to be stepping in around 5%, which coincides with the prior high in 2023," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at SCFR, referring to the 10-year Treasury note yield. The question is whether investors spring for current yields when the Treasury offers more debt for auction, or wait, hoping the recent rate hike and expectations for additional Fed moves send yields up again. Treasury yields hold a strong premium to the Fed funds rate, meaning they've arguably priced in a few more hikes. Also, yields are well above many other income sources, maybe keeping auction demand firm.
On the move
- IonQ (IONQ) surged 11% early today as the company announced "a major milestone." Researchers successfully tested first real-time quantum error correction decoder that runs on a single standard off-the-shelf central processing unit. This removes a major bottleneck, IonQ said in a press release. Rigetti Computing (RGTI) and several other quantum stocks also rose on the news.
- Graphic Packaging Holding (GPK) rose 3.5% early on an upgrade to overweight from neutral by JPMorgan Chase. The firm cited valuation, with shares down 19% since its second quarter earnings report.
- Worthington Enterprises (WOR) soared almost 16% after the industrial manufacturing firm beat analysts' earnings estimates, helped by demand for data center cooling products.
- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) jumped 8% on earnings that surpassed analysts' consensus.
- KB Home (KBH) dropped 3% early after reporting third quarter results. Earnings beat consensus but the home builder delivered a cautious outlook due to high mortgage rates and other uncertainties.
- Memory chip stocks led the tech sector Tuesday after President Trump reiterated support for AI in his UN speech. Software went the opposite way, for the most part. Technology stock traders are likely to watch Trump's talks with Xi for any outcomes linked to U.S. chip exports, a hot button issue for years.
- Some energy refiner stocks fell Tuesday after President Trump said he's considering a temporary ban on diesel exports. This comes as Republicans in close election fights called for the administration to ease energy prices.
- Financial stocks suffered Tuesday and have struggled the past week thanks in part to a yield curve that's flattened after the Fed's rate hike. Long-term yields are slightly down and shorter-term yields are up since then, a trend that tends to hurt profitability for banks.
- On Holding (ONON) jumped 7.6% Tuesday after the Swiss footwear company said it expects revenue growth to reach the high teens, targeting sales of around $7 billion by 2029, Barron's reported. Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) rose 8% Tuesday on the coattails of On Holding's forecast, which looked positive for athletic footwear.
- Allstate (ALL) fell 5.5% Tuesday on worries AI could pull demand from traditional insurers.
More insights from Schwab
What is factor-based investing? When markets trade near their record highs or indexes become overly concentrated, some investors begin to look for ways to manage risk and diversify their holdings. One popular tool is factor-based investing—selecting individual stocks or rules-based funds that track securities with specific traits. However, it carries risks.
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Chart of the day
Data source: CME Group. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
Copper (/HG—candlesticks) made a new record high yesterday and has been rising over the last week as crude oil (/CL—purple line) fell. While hopes for improved demand triggered by weaker oil are an element of the copper rally, so are tighter supplies, mainly in China. Copper is one commodity that generally seems less reflective of oil prices lately. Its prior highs earlier this month came even as oil soared.
The week ahead
September 24: August new home sales and expected earnings from Darden Restaurants (DRI) and Costco (COST).
September 25: August durable goods orders and final September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
September 28: Expected earnings from Jefferies Financial Group (JEF).
September 29: August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and consumer confidence for September.
September 30: ADP September employment change, August PCE prices, second quarter GDP-third estimate, and expected earnings from Micron (MU), Conagra (CAG), and Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI).