Nvidia, Fed Minutes on Marquee as Stocks Up Early
Published as of: May 20, 2026, 9:13 a.m. ET
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| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® Index | 7,353.61 | -49.44 | -0.67% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® | 49,363.88 | -322.24 | -0.65% |
| Nasdaq Composite® | 25,870.71 | -220.02 | -0.84% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.65% | -0.02 | -- |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 99.35 | +0.03 | +0.03% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® | 17.94 | -0.12 | -0.66% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $101.20 | -$2.90 | -2.78% |
| Bitcoin | $77,655 | +$820 | +1.07% |
(Wednesday market open) There's a double feature playing on Wall Street this afternoon starting with Federal Reserve meeting minutes at 2 p.m. ET and continuing with Nvidia (NVDA) earnings after the close. Stocks climbed the ladder early as crude oil retreated on hopes for progress on the Iran conflict, though today feels like a waiting game for the main events.
Major indexes dropped a third straight session Tuesday thanks to rising Treasury yields despite a midday turn-around in the chip sector. Heavier-than-normal volume characterized a session that featured declining stocks outpacing advancing ones. Despite weakness in the S&P 500 Index, five of 11 S&P 500 sectors rose Tuesday, led by energy. Most of the stronger sectors were defensive ones, including healthcare, utilities, and staples. Info tech fell about 0.8%.
"Bond yields globally are on the rise, which hurts the outlook for stocks," noted Michelle Gibley, director of international equity research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, or SCFR. "The longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed, inflation risks are rising and waking up bond yields. Inflation may be here to stay—either from the potential second order impacts from higher energy prices or hotter economic growth."
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Three things to watch
- What to look for with Nvidia: Analysts expect Nvidia to report earnings per share of $1.76 on revenue of $78.9 billion, up 117% and 79%, respectively, from a year ago. The rub is that merely matching expectations likely won't be enough to get bulls excited and might actually hurt shares. The stock recently hit all-time highs and could be vulnerable to a pullback if either earnings or guidance disappoint, with the options market predicting a 6.5% move in either direction. Nvidia tends to fall after reporting, though shares rose 1.5% this morning. One question this quarter is what Nvidia might do with all the cash pouring in from "hyperscaler" spending, other than invest in deals or infrastructure. One possibility is raising share buybacks. Another metric to watch is timing and progress for the Vera Rubin platform, which Nvidia says opens "the next AI frontier to scale the world's largest AI factories." Gross margin might be one of the bigger elements of the report from a stock market perspective, with consensus estimates at around 74.5%—below the company's own 75%. Anything below 73% could signal pricing pressure as more advanced chips come on the market, while anything at or above 75% would help confirm Nvidia's pricing power remains intact.
- Yields in new territory: Taylor Swift was 17 and television series Mad Men debuted in July 2007, the last time the U.S. 30-year bond yield reached levels posted Tuesday near 5.19%. "Higher yields reflect not just higher oil prices and a longer expected timeframe for the Iran conflict, but also hotter inflation data, global yields moving higher, and the new incoming Fed chair," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the SCFR. "Bond vigilantes" might be the culprit for this selloff in Treasuries, which move opposite of yields. Treasuries can weaken when holders fear unrestrained inflation. This can sometimes bring hawkish Fed policy to soothe the bond market, and futures trading now bakes in about 55% chances of at least one hike this year, according to the CME Fedwatch Tool. Higher yields also might reflect less interest in U.S. assets among international investors now finding improved yields in their own markets. Foreign residents decreased their holdings of U.S. Treasury bills by $16.8 billion in March, the U.S. Treasury Department said Monday. Recent Treasury auctions saw tepid demand, and the Treasury auctions off $16 billion in 20-year bonds early this afternoon.
- Fed minutes could shed light on dissents: Minutes from the Fed's April meeting today outline behind-the-scenes discussion at the last gathering chaired by Jerome Powell. It appeared contentious, as four Fed policymakers dissented from the committee's decision to pause—the biggest set of dissenters at any meeting since 1992. Three dissenters protested what they see as the Fed's "easing bias," meaning they feel more hawkish about where rates should go. Minutes could give investors more insight into where policymakers see rates headed this year, though like everyone else they have no special insight into the oil market that's mainly behind this yield rally. The next set of Fed rate projections are due in mid-June. That will be the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, and some analysts suggest he might want to take a hawkish tone to talk down Treasury yields.
On the move
- Lowe's (LOW) dropped 2% after the retailer reported earnings that surpassed Wall Street's expectations. Sales at stores open a year or more (same-store sales) rose 0.6%. The weakness in shares suggests participants might have hoped for better.
- Target (TGT) climbed 1.4% as investors digested what looked like a solid quarter for the big box retailer. Earnings rose more than expected and Target raised guidance for revenue. Same-store sales rose 5.6%, and the company said in a press release that quarterly performance suggests its turnaround plan is working.
- Toll Brothers (TOL) jumped 3% after the builder known for its luxury houses reported earnings and revenue that beat estimates despite an annual drop in delivered homes. The company raised the low end of its delivery guidance.
- Cava Group (CAVA) surged 7.5% in the early going, lifted by stronger year-over-year earnings and revenue along with same restaurant sales growth of almost 10% for the fast-casual dining firm. The company lifted its fiscal 2026 same restaurant growth estimate and raised its projection for net new restaurant openings.
- Micron (MU) edged up 3% as rival Samsung (SSNLF) continues having trouble with a planned strike by its workers. Talks broke down today, Barron's reported, and the strike is expected to start tomorrow and last through June 7. This would have an impact on about 3% of global memory chip production.
- Other chip stocks, including Intel (INTC), rose early today in follow-through from yesterday's late comeback. One headwind for the sector could be Alibaba (BABA) saying earlier today it's added a new AI chip that's three times faster than its previous generation chip. This would potentially mean another chip option for companies in China, where advanced U.S. chips are unavailable.
- Shake Shack (SHAK) climbed 6% Tuesday after announcing share purchases by insiders.
- Warby Parker (WRBY) fell almost 11% yesterday after it introduced its AI glasses, built in partnership with Alphabet (GOOGL) and Samsung.
- Many inflation-sensitive names in airlines, cruise lines, resorts, and home building fell Tuesday as yields rose.
- Bitcoin futures (/BTC) edged up 1% this morning but the crypto rally hit strong resistance at $82,000, according to Jim Ferraioli, director of crypto research and strategy at SCFR. That level is near the cost basis of the average bitcoin ETF investors, he added.
- Mining stocks got clipped Tuesday by falling metals prices as yields rose, though crude finished flat. Metals edged up this morning after President Trump said he hopes the war will end soon.
More insights from Schwab
Four horsemen of labor: Relying solely on metrics like nonfarm payrolls or jobless claims to assess labor market health may not provide the full picture. Instead, some focus on what Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee calls "the four horsemen" of the labor market: the unemployment rate, hiring rate, layoff rate, and vacancy rate. Learn why these matter in our new look at markets and the economy.
" id="body_disclosure--media_disclosure--542896" >Four horsemen of labor: Relying solely on metrics like nonfarm payrolls or jobless claims to assess labor market health may not provide the full picture. Instead, some focus on what Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee calls "the four horsemen" of the labor market: the unemployment rate, hiring rate, layoff rate, and vacancy rate. Learn why these matter in our new look at markets and the economy.
Chart of the day
Data sources: FTSE Russell, S&P Dow Jones Indices. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
The Russell 2000® (RUT—candlesticks) index of small caps is often seen as an early signal of movements in its larger brethren, and that appeared to be the case over the last month. The RUT peaked on May 6, more than a week before the S&P 500 Index (SPX—purple line). Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI—lower chart) of the RUT hit its high May 6 and drifted lower much of the week that followed, a sign that momentum might be fading. While the RUT and its RSI aren't perfect signals, they can bear watching for possible insight into where the market might be headed.
The week ahead
Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
May 21: Expected earnings from Walmart (WMT), Deere (DE), Ralph Lauren (RL), Ross Stores (ROST), Zoom (ZM), and Decker's Outdoor (DECK).
May 22: Final May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
May 25: U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day holiday.
May 26: May consumer confidence and expected earnings from AutoZone (AZO) and Zscaler (ZS).
May 27: April new home sales and expected earnings from Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Salesforce (CRM), Synopsys (SNPS), and Snowflake (SNOW).