Stocks, Yields Muted After Flat PPI Inflation Data
Published as of: August 13, 2026, 9:10 a.m. ET
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| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® Index | 7,748.50 | +20.30 | +0.26% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® | 53,770.27 | -21.58 | -0.04% |
| Nasdaq Composite® | 26,588.49 | +143.04 | +0.54% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.66% | -0.03 | -- |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 99.88 | +0.14 | +0.14% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® | 14.47 | -0.09 | -0.62% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $81.31 | -$1.96 | -2.23% |
| Bitcoin | $63,650 | +$195 | +0.31% |
(Thursday market open) Wholesale inflation slowed in July, the government said today, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) flat monthly and core PPI up 0.2% excluding food and energy. Stocks inched higher after the benign data while Treasury yields eased but remained near recent long-term highs.
Consensus was for 0.1% headline PPI and 0.3% core PPI growth, compared with June's revised-0.1% and 0.4%, respectively. Annual July PPI rose 4.7%, down from a revised 5% in June. Services price gains slowed along with energy. On a less friendly note, several components that affect the Federal Reserve's favored Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index due later this month rose from June, especially on the health side. "PPI components that feed into PCE suggest a somewhat firm print in July," said Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "We'll see what FOMC members say, but on balance, the relief from yesterday's in-line CPI and hotter PCE-related PPI components today probably cancel each other out."
Yesterday, stocks mostly climbed but finished just below last week's all-time highs for the S&P 500 Index as progress on Iran flagged. The SPX experienced an "inside" day on the charts in a narrow range of less than 30 points as summer doldrums slowed Wall Street. Info tech led gains, though defensive sectors followed closely. Several tech stocks fell this morning, including Cisco (CSCO), despite generally solid earnings results.
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Three things to watch
- PPI deeper dive: Though PPI is far from the last inflation reading before the next Fed meeting in mid-September, there's a sense that even higher rates due to rising prices might not be a huge headwind. "As long as oil prices remain below $90, the primary driver remains earnings growth, and the trajectory of earnings growth, which has been trending higher," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at SCFR. "Higher oil could eventually lead the Fed to raise rates, but would that matter to the markets? I'd say as long as it's one or two hikes, then no—why would modestly tighter credit conditions kill the consumer or the AI infrastructure buildout?" Several members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), including hawkish Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, speak today, possibly outlining thoughts after CPI and PPI. The CME FedWatch Tool now bakes in just 32% chances of a hike in September but nearly 70% odds of at least one hike by the end of the year, with inflation still well above the Fed's 2% goal.
- How one company handles rising prices: The tame July CPI suggests the wholesale price surge earlier this year didn't affect what companies charge their customers further down the chain. This could mean some companies are eating higher prices, not passing them along to customers and possibly taking the margin hit. Or they could be trying to drive more customer traffic and build share to make up for rising costs. For instance, Cava Group (CAVA), a Mediterranean restaurant chain that reported strong earnings Wednesday, said sales at restaurants open a year or more rose 9% annually, helped in part by higher prices but also lifted by more than 5% growth in traffic. The company has absorbed much of the inflation in the economy, deliberately underpricing CPI in recent years, its CEO told CNBC Wednesday. Menu prices rose 1.5% early this year versus what was then 3.1% annual CPI.
- Retailers report next week: In the coming days, earnings transition from the AI surge toward a more traditional segment of the economy as retailers like Home Depot (HD), Target (TGT), and Walmart (WMT) report next week. Results could shed more light on the consumer economy following tomorrow's July retail sales report. The report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday, provides the raw number seen up 0.2% from June, but retailers can share subtleties. Many headlines emphasize the "K-shaped" economy where the top 10% drive most purchases, though lately some cracks have formed in that theory, partly due to tax refunds and lower savings rates. Also, Home Depot and Lowe's (LOW) ironically could benefit from a slow housing market. Homeowners might focus on repairs and projects, unwilling to trade low rates for higher ones if they move. High gas prices, however, could spook customers, leading them to discount retailers or store brands. Consumer spending is 70% of the economy even though the AI build-out dominates headlines. On a related note, today's weekly initial jobless claims were slightly higher than expected at 209,000, up 9,000 from the week before but still near historic lows.
Crypto currents
Bitcoin goes from quiet to sleepy: With bitcoin drifting sideways in a narrowing range since early June, trading volume in the spot market has hit the lowest level since October 2023, according to data from Glassnode. On the plus side, net inflows into spot exchange-traded products last week hit the highest level since April, though they remained well below the averages during the runup to new highs in October 2025. As of Wednesday, bitcoin had spent 87 straight days beneath the break-even point for recent buyers ($68,700), yet selling by that cohort has steadily lost steam since the sharp price drop that ended in early June. A sustained move above that breakeven level, which now sits near the 200-day moving average, would likely spark a test of higher resistance levels. Volatility is so compressed that any catalyst—bullish or bearish—is likely to spark a test of its recent range.
On the move
- Cisco slid 7% early despite quarterly results that slightly surpassed analysts' revenue and earnings per share estimates. Guidance for the current quarter topped expectations, too, thanks to significant momentum for AI infrastructure. With shares up 60% year-to-date heading in, profit taking might explain today's losses.
- Coherent (COHR) fell 5% despite earnings and revenue that topped Wall Street's expectations. Shares had soared into the earnings report for the photonics firm, possibly triggering profit taking.
- Cerebras (CBRS) plunged 16% after the AI chip maker's quarterly loss, revenue, and adjusted gross margin came in worse than analysts had expected.
- Tapestry (TPR) slid 7% early despite better-than-expected quarterly results for the parent company of Coach and Kate Spade. Guidance appeared to disappoint.
- Yeti (YETI) dropped 5% despite results from the outdoor recreation product company that beat analysts' estimates.
- Birkenstock (BIRK) soared 10% early on strong earnings and guidance for the footwear firm.
- StubHub (STUB) plunged 19% early after earnings per share and gross margin missed estimates. It got downgraded to underperform from neutral by Bank of America, which said the firm faces pressure on volumes and regulatory uncertainty.
- Wendy's (WEN) soared 14% Wednesday after the Financial Times reported investor Nelson Peltz is preparing to bid for the company.
- Weakness in Nike (NKE), Travelers (TRV), Microsoft (MSFT), and Home Depot (HD) hurt the Dow Jones Industrial Average Wednesday. Struggles for Nike and Gap (GAP) might still reflect Tuesday's weak results from the Swiss running shoemaker On Holding (ONON).
- Gold added 0.63% Wednesday to its highest close since June 4, helped by flagging U.S. rate hike expectations.
- Crude slid this morning partly because U.S. oil inventories climbed more than expected last week, according to Wednesday's Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Also, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it expects global oil demand to fall more than previously expected this year.
More insights from Schwab
Rate hike risk intact: The Fed remains on hold, but risk of a rate hike is still present based on recent inflation data, resilient economic growth, and more hawkish Fed commentary, wrote Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at SCFR. Learn what that might mean for Treasury yields and bond portfolio positioning.
Large trader rule primer: Traders and organizations whose transactions meet or exceed the SEC's daily or monthly large trader reporting thresholds must self-identify and register with the regulator. Most traders won't be affected, but for those who meet or exceed transaction thresholds, it's important to understand the registration and ongoing compliance requirements.
Seven car-buying pitfalls to avoid: Anyone shopping for a car might want to review a list of seven buying mistakes that can cost money, including buying on emotion and focusing only on the monthly payment.
Chart of the day
Data source: S&P Global. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
The S&P Energy Select Sector Daily Capped 35/20 Index ($SPSDEUP—candlesticks) appears poised to test its late-March highs. The index, which limits the weights of the largest companies, broke out of its range in early January after more than three years of sideways consolidation. It pulled back to near its 200-day moving average (green line) in late June and early July.
The week ahead
Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
August 14: University of Michigan preliminary August consumer sentiment and July retail sales.
August 17: No major earnings or data expected.
August 18: July housing starts and building permits, July industrial production, and expected earnings from Home Depot (HD), Baidu (BIDU), and Toll Brothers (TOL).
August 19: FOMC minutes and expected earnings from Analog Devices (ADI), TJX Companies (TJX), Lowe's (LOW), Target (TGT), and Estee Lauder (EL).
August 20: Conference Board Leading Indicators for July and expected earnings from Walmart (WMT), Alibaba (BABA), Deere (DE), NetEase (NTES), and Ross Stores (ROST).