| Scenario | Likelihood | Description | Oil Price (Brent | Macro & Policy | Global Equity Market Impacts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upside: Imminent end (<4 weeks) | Low | Military operations end; Middle East security structurally better | Price retreats below $70 | No lasting impacts to global growth; inflation proves transient; no major policy changes | Risk appetite recovers quickly; the most impacted markets (Europe & Asia) rebound the most; financial conditions return to pre-war |
| Moderate: Gradual end to conflict | Medium | Major military operations wind down; but limited strikes may continue; energy flows gradually normalize | Stays in $75-90 range | Moderate impact to global growth & inflation, monetary policy easing; slight impact to U.S. growth & inflation | Markets recover but financial conditions remain tighter vs pre-war; international markets may not resume outperformance (Asia and EU most sensitive) |
| Downside: Prolonged Conflict (>3 months) | Low-to-medium | Military operations continue; Iranian regime proves resilient; energy supplies remain impaired | $100-$150 range | EU and Asia recession; U.S. economy weakens sharply on tighter financial conditions; broad fiscal + monetary policy toolkits utilized | Flight to safety; global equities enter bear market, including U.S., Energy and Defensives outperform |
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Disclosure
Source: Charles Schwab, as of 3/12/2026. For illustrative purposes only.