| Scenario | Likelihood | Description | Oil Price (Brent) | Macro & Policy | Financial Market Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upside: Imminent end with no impact to growth | Low | Military operations end; Middle East security stable | Price retreats below $75 | No lasting impacts to global growth; inflation proves transient; no major policy changes | Risk assets rebound led by the most impacted markets (Europe & Asia); bond yields drop on easing bias |
| Moderate:Gradual end to conflict, Contained impact | Medium | Military operations wind down; limited strikes may continue; energy flows gradually normalize | Eases to $75-100 range through 2Q | Differing local impacts to growth & inflation; slight impact to U.S. growth & inflation | Financial conditions remain tighter vs pre-war but no major corrections to broad markets; yields elevated but range-bound |
| Adverse:Gradual end but material macro & market impacts | Medium | Major military operations fade but strikes continue; energy supplies remain impaired | Stays in the $100-125 range into 2H | EU & Asia economic stagnation; U.S. weakens slightly via financial conditions; monetary tightening bias; limited fiscal response | Broad financial condition tightening; equities correct further; credit spreads widen modestly; bond yields rise further on inflation and rate hike concerns |
| Severe:Prolonged Conflict (>6 months) | Low | Military operations continue; global commodity shock propagates | Exceeds $125; volatility into 4Q | Global recession likely; severe financial condition tightening; broad fiscal + monetary policy toolkits utilized | Global equity bear market; credit stress propagates; classic flight to safety; bond yields could rise if stagflation takes hold |
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Disclosure
Source: Charles Schwab, as of 4/8/2026. For illustrative purposes only.