Looking to the Futures
Volatility in the market and the headlines
April Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures (/CLJ26) is trading up 2.70% to $85.70 in the pre-market as market participants await news from the G-7 Energy Ministers on an International Energy Agency (IEA) proposal for a release from strategic reserves. Consumer Price Index (CPI) Figures were also released this morning. CPI came in line with expectations, rising 2.4% year on year and 0.3% month on month. Excluding food and energy prices, CPI rise 0.2% monthly and 2.5% year on year also matches estimates.
Markets finished Tuesday’s session mixed and relatively flat. March E-mini-S&P 500 Index Futures (/ESH26) settled down 0.21% at 6787.25, while March E-mini Nasdaq 100 Index Futures (/NQH26) edged slightly higher, gaining 0.04% and settled to 24,982.50. In energy markets, April Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures (/CLJ26) experienced another volatile session, finishing the day at $83.45 well below Monday’s high of $119.48.
Crude oil prices were pressured in part by confusion surrounding a video clip posted to social media platform X that was later determined to contain incorrect information. The post, attributed to U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, claimed that the U.S. Navy had successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. The message was quickly deleted after officials determined the caption attached to the video was inaccurate. During a press conference later in the day, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt addressed the situation, confirming the post had been removed after it was identified as containing incorrect information. A spokesperson for the Department of Energy later issued a similar clarification, stating the video had been “incorrectly captioned by Department of Energy staff.”
In response to rising tensions, the (IEA) released a statement following a meeting of G7 energy ministers held at IEA headquarters. The statement emphasized that member countries including Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States collectively hold more than 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks. An additional 600 million barrels are held by industry under government obligation. The purpose of the meeting was to evaluate whether emergency supply measures may be necessary to offset potential disruptions stemming from the conflict with Iran. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, officials familiar with the discussions indicated that the proposed release could exceed the 182 million barrels that IEA member nations deployed in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Overnight developments reinforced importance of accessing risk and navigating volatility, as conditions can quickly change. Reports indicated a cargo ship was struck by a projectile while traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. For energy traders, developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain a central driver of near-term pricing. Based on data gathered by the U.S. Energy Information Administration in 2024 and 2025, the strait averaged 20 million barrels per day or roughly 20% of global petroleum consumption moves through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Hightower Report’s Daily Energies Technical Summary shows the next downside target is now 70.41. The next area of resistance is around 93.58 and 99.90, while 1st support hits today at 78.84 and below there at 70.41. With the rapid jump in the price of oil. Current trend is strong, but currently trying to find a support level amongst the higher volatility. Volatility is closer to the 52-week IV high at 171.77%.
Futures on the move
Heating Oil Futures (/HO) are leading the charge higher this morning up 8.24%. Natural Gas futures (/NG) and RBOB Gasoline Futures (/RB) are higher overall in early trade 3.11% and 3.34% from rising LNG demand.
Soybean Oil Futures (/ZL) increased 4.22%, likely correlating with rising energy costs and the ongoing conflict in Iran.
What else to watch today
Major economic reports, trading events, and news items that could potentially impact specific futures markets:
- MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 AM ET
- CPI 8:30 AM ET
- Fed’s Bowman Speaks 8:30 AM ET
- Oil Inventories 10:30 AM ET
- 10-Year Note Auction 1:00 PM ET
New Products
New futures products are available to trade with a futures-approved account on all thinkorswim platforms:
- Ripple (/XRP)
- Micro Ripple (/MXP)
- 100 OZ Silver (/SIC)
- 1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
- Solana (/SOL)
- Micro Solana (/MSL)
Visit the Schwab.com Futures Markets page to explore the wide variety of futures contracts available for trading through Charles Schwab Futures and Forex LLC.