Looking to the Futures
Soybeans Fall on Building Technical Momentum
Soybean futures eased in Thursday’s trading with the market digesting export news. Soybean futures for March, /ZSH26, settled at 1061.25 cents per bushel, down 5.75 from previous settlement.
China trade remained the key demand focus in market coverage. Reuters reported a purchase of approximately 600,000 metric tons of soybeans by China’s state grain stockpiler for delivery between March and May, bringing China’s total purchases for the 2025/26 marketing year close to 410 million tons, versus the 12 million metric tons Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China committed to buy by the end of February.
USDA export sales for the week ending January 1st were reported at 877,900 metric tons (net sales), down 26% week over week and down 42% versus the prior 4-week average. Of that total, 470,100 metric tons were attributed to China in the weekly country breakdown.
On the cumulative ledger, USDA data showed accumulated exports of 16.347 million metric tons, compared with 29.752 million metric tons at the same point last year. USDA also reported total outstanding sales of 12.229 million metric tons vs 10.429 million last year. Outstanding sales to China were at 5.701 million metric tons vs 2.326 million last year.
China’s recent purchases have been supportive to prices, Traders will look to Monday for the next scheduled release of supply and demand data, the WASDE report, for an update into yield estimates. Analysts anticipate a yield of 52.7 bpa and a production of 4.23 billion bushels.
Technicals
Soybean futures for March, /ZSH26, settled at 1061.25 cents per bushel, down 5.75 from previous settlement. March soybeans opened for trading at 1061.5 cents per bushel.
Soybeans are currently between the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, as it attempts to find direction from its previous bearish trend. The 50-day SMA is at 1112.13 and the 200-day SMA is at 1088.52.
The 14-day RSI indicates a building momentum on the daily chart. RSI is currently at 44.74% and moving upwards after bouncing from the 30% oversold threshold last week.
The directional movement index points to a building bullish trend but is in a transition zone. The ADX is decreasing, which indicates a weakening of the previous trend. The negative directional index is moving lower but still above the positive directional index which is moving upward. Once the positive crosses the negative that could be a sign of a continued bullish trend.
What else to watch today
Major economic reports, trading events, and news items that could potentially impact specific futures markets:
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