Looking to the Futures

Crude oil futures (/CLJ26) finished the week on a high note with prices touching their highest levels since early August amid reports that U.S.-Iranian nuclear talks have been disappointing. 

In addition, in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude oil stockpiles rose by 16-million barrels during the week ending February 20. This was well above expectations for a 1.8-million barrel storage build.

Oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, stood at 435.8 million barrels, 3% below the five-year average.

U.S. oil production declined by 33,000 barrels per day last week and averaged 13.702 million barrels per day. This was 200,000 barrels per day higher than one year ago.

On the oil product side, distillate inventories increased by 300,000 barrels, which was below expectations for a 1.5-million barrel build. Distillate inventories are now 5% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Gasoline inventories declined by 1-million barrels, which was above expectations for a 700,000 barrel draw. These stockpiles are now 3% above the five-year average.

EIA said gasoline production decreased from the previous week and averaged 9.2-million barrels per day. Distillate production also decreased last week, averaging 4.8-million barrels per day.

The agency also reported that U.S. ethanol production fell last week, averaging 1.113 million barrels per day. Expectations were for an increase to 1.12 million barrels per day.

U.S. ethanol inventories remained unchanged at 25.6 million barrels last week. Traders were expecting inventories of 25.8 million barrels.

Digging further into the EIA report, refinery utilization declined by 2.4 percentage points to 88.6% last week. Expectations were for a decline to 90%. U.S. gasoline demand fell by 15,000 barrels per day to 8.733 million barrels per day. Distillate demand also fell last week, declining by 857,000 barrels per day to 3.895 million barrels per day.

Oil storage in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the WTI Crude Oil futures (/CL) contract, rose by 900,000 barrels last week to 24.9-million barrels.

The U.S. crude oil rig count remained unchanged at 409 rigs during the reporting period ending February 20. That is down 16.2% from a year ago according to energy services firm Baker Hughes’ North American Rotary Rig Count report.

This morning, U.S. stock index futures moved lower in the early hours with the S&P 500® (–0.95%), the Nasdaq-100® (–1.21%), the Russell 2000® (–1.20%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average® (–1.01%) all in the red. 

In Asia, major indexes closed mixed, with the Shanghai (+0.47%) higher, but the Nikkei (–1.35%) and Hang Seng (–2.14%) posting losses. 

European trading saw the DAX (–1.93%), the CAC (–1.71%), and the FTSE (–1.00%) markets move lower by midday.

Natural gas futures (/NGJ26) ended Friday’s trading session in the green (+1.13%) as multi-month highs in crude oil and gasoline sparked short covering in natural gas to end the week.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported U.S. natural gas inventories saw a 52 billion cubic foot (Bcf) draw during the week ending February 20. This was above expectations for a 36 Bcf draw.  U.S. gas inventories are currently –0.3% below the 5-year average but 7.5% above last year. 

In addition, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above normal temperatures from March 5^th to March 11^th for all of the lower 48 states with well above normal temperatures seen in the Southeast during this time period. 

Soybean oil futures (/ZLK26) closed higher on Friday (+0.15%), with the lead month futures trading at levels last seen in September 2023. The Environment Protection Agency (EPA) will be moving Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) to the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. This is a required final regulatory step before this year’s RVOs are finalized. Expectations are for 2026-27 RVOs to favor U.S. soybean oil over imported feedstock, potentially leading to a large increase in demand for U.S. produced soybean oil in the coming months.

Wheat futures (/ZWK26) saw prices move to over eight-month highs on Friday (+2.96%), tied to dry conditions in the winter wheat growing states of Kansas and Oklahoma. In addition, the USDA has forecasted U.S. 2025-26 winter wheat plantings at 32.99 million acres, which is the lowest planted acreage since 2020. 

Major economic reports, trading events, and news items that could potentially impact specific futures markets:

S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ Finalfor February (interest rate and stock index futures)

ISM Manufacturing PMI for February (interest rates and stock indices)

First Notice Day: March Orange Juice

3-and 6-month T-bills

New futures products are available to trade with a futures-approved account on all thinkorswim platforms: 

• Ripple (/XRP)
• Micro Ripple (/MXP)
• 100 OZ Silver (/SIC)
• 1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
• Solana (/SOL)
• Micro Solana (/MSL)

Visit the Schwab.com Futures Markets page to explore the wide variety of futures contracts available for trading through Charles Schwab Futures and Forex LLC.