Looking to the Futures
AI Concerns Shake Equity Markets
Equity markets saw significant selling pressure yesterday after American trade policy shook investor confidence. AI concerns continue to disrupt a variety of different sectors within the US economy. Stocks saw additional selling from increased geopolitical concerns, specifically between the United States and Iran. US economic news came in mixed yesterday. In the bull camp Q4 earnings season is nearing its end with the majority of companies in the S&P 500 beating estimates. Global bond yields were lower to start the week.
Global tariff concerns are back in the headlines after President Trump signed an executive order increasing global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. President Trump increased tariffs from 10% to 15%, after the Supreme Court struck down the global reciprocal tariffs last Friday.
Markets continue to see the effects of AI with delivery, payment, and software stocks retreating during Monday's session. Citrini Research published a report outlining the potential risks artificial intelligence could have on the global economy, amplifying concerns for investors.
Geopolitical concerns spiked last week when President Trump indicated he is considering a limited military strike on Iran to increase pressure on the country to strike a deal over its nuclear program. Nuclear talks are expected to resume on Thursday in Geneva, and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated he saw a "good chance" for a diplomatic solution.
US economic data came in mixed on Monday with the US Jan Chicago Fed National Activity Index increasing +0.39 to 0.18, outpacing the expectations of 0.01. US Dec factory orders dropped -0.7% m/m, in line with expectations. The US Feb Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook level of general business activity survey increased +1.4 to 0.2, beating the expectations of -0.5.
Q4 earnings season is starting to wrap up with 74% of the 429 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations. S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Markets are looking to the Nvidia earnings announcement after the close on Wednesday.
Global bond yields were lower to start the week with the 10-year US Treasury note yield dropping -5.6 bp to 4.027%. The 10-year German bund yield fell -2.7 bp to 2.711% and the 10-year UK gilt yield slipped -0.39 bp to 4.314%.
Technicals
Looking at the daily chart for the E Mini S&P 500 March 2026 (/ESH26) contract we can see the 20-Day and 50-Day Simple Moving Averages have acted as resistance levels over the past week.
The Daily Technical Summary from Hightower Research shows support levels at 6809.25 and 6772.25 with resistance levels at 6906.75 and 6967.25.
According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders report released February 17th asset managers increased their long position by +52,008 contracts and decreased their short position by -161 contracts. Asset managers were net long 976,865 contracts as of the time this report was published.
The 14-Dat Relative Strength Index at 45.28% indicates slightly more sellers than buyers.
20-Day SMA 6,923.94
50-Day SMA 6,930.62
200-Day SMA 6,645.04
14-Day RSI 45.28%
Implied Volatility 17.96%
Contract Specifications
Economic Calendar
Consumer Confidence 10:00 AM ET
FHFA Housing Price Index 9:00 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 9:00 AM ET
Wholesale Inventories 10:00 AM ET
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