Looking to the Futures
Soybeans Rise on Crude Oil Supply Uncertainty
Soybeans traded higher on Thursday as traders anticipated higher demand for biofuels in the shadow of crude oil increases and geopolitical uncertainty. Soybean futures for May delivery, /ZSK26, settled at 1227.25 cents per bushel, up 13.25 cents from previous settlement.
Uncertainty in the crude oil markets has turned traders to look for possible supply disruptions derived from military actions by the US in Iran. The leadership of Iran has found that the White House will react to drastic price fluctuations in the oil market and has stated their intention to send oil to $200/barrel.
With the climb of crude oil prices, biofuel demand may drive some trader interests. Higher energy prices increase the economic incentive for renewable diesel production, which relies heavily on soybean oil as a feedstock. This relationship has made soybeans particularly sensitive to movements in crude oil.
The market may be pointing to revised mandates in renewable diesel through the price moves seen in both soybeans and soybean oil. In 2025, the EPA released proposed volume requirements for biomass-based diesel to 5.61 billion gallons in 2026 and 5.86 billion gallons in 2027. With recent crude oil volatility there is speculation that the administration may decide to implement these rules faster or become more aggressive to gain more control of oil prices. Even US fuel retailers have been calling for the reimplementation of the biodiesel blending tax credit, which is $1/gallon, to help ease the stress felt by retail and commercial consumers at the pump. This could
Other disruptions in the soybean market, Cargill, an American supply chain conglomerate, paused soybean shipments from Brazil to China after sanitary inspection rules delayed the approval of export certificates. The company also temporarily stopped buying soybeans from some Brazilian farmers while due to the Chinese concerns.
This disruption could shift some Chinese demand back to the US to affect some short-term buying.
Technicals
Soybean futures for May delivery, /ZSK26, settled at 1227.25 cents per bushel, up 13.25 cents from previous settlement. Friday’s trading opened at 1229 cents per bushel.
Soybeans are much higher than their simple moving averages, indicating a bullish trend. The 50-day SMA is at1108.84 and the 200-day SMA is at 1065.77.
The 14-day RSI is well in overbought territory, sitting at 83.63% after crossing the 70% threshold 2 weeks ago. Resistance could be seen in this territory as a means to cool down the price. In bullish and bearish trends, the overbought/sold values may move to fit that trend which might be the case in its current trend.
The directional movement index indicates a strong bullish trend with the average directional index at the extremely elevated level of 55. The positive directional index is elevated well above the negative index as well, which gives even more support to the current trend.
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