Looking to the Futures

Silver December Futures (/SIZ25) settled Thursday at $50.30, a -1.09% decrease from the previous close during a day where equity markets experienced a rather drastic midday reversal coinciding with a spike in volatility. Renewed AI speculation fears and interest rate decision uncertainty appeared to overwhelm the upbeat Nvidia earnings optimism that began the trading day. At market close, the Dow Jones saw a -0.84% drop, the S&P 500 a -1.6% decline, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite shed nearly -2.2%. Bitcoin fell to its lowest level since April 21st of this year and the VIX soared +11.67% seeing highs last seen a little more than 1 month ago. Despite this flood of uncertainty within the market on Thursday, Silver and Gold prices slightly fell to end the trading session, with Gold December Futures falling -0.56%.

Despite being commonly referred to as "poor man's Gold", it is not the yellow precious metal boasting the top year-to-date performance return for 2025 within commodities as of Thursday evening. With a little more than a month left in the year, Silver is leading the charge with a roughly +64.00% gain YTD. Silver Futures posted a new high for the year on November 13th with /SIZ25 reaching $54.415. Over the past week, the price has corrected slightly, dropping below $50 but has continued to hover and close above this level over the past few days. Heightened economic and tariff uncertainty, increased industrial demand, and an interesting relationship between the silver-gold ratio may have some traders believing that the bull run has not seen its end just yet.

Dating back to ancient Egypt where it was first declared that two and one-half parts silver is equal to one part gold, began what is known today as the silver-gold ratio or value proposition. In modern times, this ratio has developed into a much larger spread between these two metals compared to where it first started. According to Barchart.com, the long-term chart of this silver/gold ratio analyzing /GCZ25-/SIZ25, shows that during the past 60 years, this ratio has been as high as 1:142 and as low as 1:14.24. Where it currently stands today, we are roughly in the middle sitting at a ratio of 1:80.39. Another interesting point regarding these metals' relationship to one another, is that according to Dow Jones Market Data, Gold earlier this year surpassed its inflation-adjusted record high from the 1980s whereas silver still has a long way to go. Despite its impressive run up, Silver would need to attain a price of $209.71 per troy ounce to top its own inflation-adjusted record high from 1980. 

Silver historically, has been more widely viewed as a means of currency due to its smaller denominations compared with Gold, which has functioned more as a store of value. One reason for Silver's recent surge can be attributed to its increased industrial demand for its use with renewable energy applications production. On November 6th, the U.S. Department of the Interior went on to add silver to the nation's critical minerals list, further strengthening that demand. This increase relative to supply, which according to the Silver Institute CEO, Michael DiRienzo, stated that supply production has declined by around 800 million ounces behind the global demand, offers some explanations as to why Silver has performed so well this year. With inflation still elevated and long-term confidence in fiat currencies waning, traders will be intently watching if these precious metals can continue this run into the new year. 
 

/SIZ25 settled Thursday right above the 20-day Simple Moving Average and continued its trend above the 50,100, and 200 days as well. The 14-day RSI sat at 54.1719 on Thursday signaling a slightly above neutral stance with no strong momentum in either direction. According to the Daily Hightower Report, momentum studies trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken. This report indicates that /SIZ25 may find support at the 49.527 and 48.903 price levels and resistance at the 51.172 and 52.193 price levels.
 

New York Fed President John Williams Speaks 7:30 AM ET

Boston Fed President Susan Collins TV appearance 8:00 AM ET

Fed Governor Stephen Miran TV Appearance 8:30 AM ET

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