Looking to the Futures
Metals push to record highs after FOMC rate decision
Yesterday the Federal Reserve issued a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement with a decision to maintain the target range at 3.50-3.75 percent. The vote went ten to two with Stephen Miran and Christoper Waller dissenting. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell kept his press conference on the topic at hand in terms of their progress towards their dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. Powell wanted to stress flexibility in their capability to alter their path based on economic data releases.
This morning’s jobless claims data showed a 209k posting versus a forecast of 205k and the trade deficit posted 56.8 billion versus a forecast of 44 billion. These announcements saw the U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) rally off the weakest print in well over 3 years.
US President Donald Trump recently made headlines stating he was not concerned with the currency’s recent weakness. This recent drop was the worst three-day stint since the April 2025 tariff rollout. As a reminder, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index measures the strength against a basket of foreign currencies (Euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, and Swiss franc). Fed Chair Powell declined to comment on the dollar citing it not being appropriate to comment on its recent volatility.
There has historically been an inverse correlation between the U.S. Dollar Index and precious metals such as gold and silver. With most of the world transacting precious metals through U.S. dollars as a reserve currency instead of their country’s base currency, it creates greater expense if the dollar is strong and vice versa if it is weak. We’ve seen other BRICS countries such as Russia and China accumulating precious metals at an increasing rate. Since 2000, Russia has accumulated 1,900 tonnes (1 tonne equals roughly 32,151 troy ounces). China published gold reserves at 2303.50 tonnes as of the third quarter of 2025.
Technicals
Looking at a daily chart for Gold Futures (/GC) we’ve seen an increase in trade volume into an extreme bullish run. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) over a 14-period timeframe sits above 90. Year to date Gold has posted a 27.3% return on the future based on a 4361.55 opening price. According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders Report, managed money remains overwhelmingly long at 163,668 contracts versus 26,224 short. Swap dealers are overwhelmingly short at 276,922 contracts and Producers/merchants are net short 61,020 contracts. With higher average volume in recent days the open interest on the contract has only increased by 549.
Specifications
Major economic reports, trading events, and news items that could potentially impact specific futures markets:
Initial jobless claims - 8:30 AM ET
U.S. trade deficit - 8:30 AM ET
U.S. productivity - 8:30 AM ET
Wholesale inventories - 10:00 AM ET
Factory orders - 10:00 AM ET
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