Looking to the Futures

Soybean Futures continued its rally in the absence of trade and crop data which is expected to be updated tomorrow. Soybean futures for January delivery, /ZSF26, settled at 1147, up 13.25 from previous settlement. 
 

The US government shutdown ended November 12th at 10:24 PM ET which will fund the government through January 30th, 2026. With the shutdown ending, US investors will start receiving future economic reports, but past reports may not be released according to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. 
 

As for the Agriculture market, the WASDE, USDA weekly export sales, and CFTC’s Commitment of Traders are expected to be released and updated on November 14th, while the crop progress report is expected to be released for Monday November 17th at 12 PM ET. The soybean crop progress report is expected to show a majority of the harvest as complete, with local news stations across the US reporting as such. 
 

Bullish drivers in the soybean market can only be speculated on with the lack of government data to ascertain probable causes. This hasn’t stopped traders from speculating on market participation from short covering and technical buying, anticipation of lower-than-expected crop yields, or a setup by Chinese controlled firms taking part in the futures market to plan future purchases. 
 

Analysts are expecting a reduction in soybean yields by 0.4 bushels/acre to 53 bushels/acre. If this estimate materialized as fact, it would explain the bullish movement currently seen in the market. 
 

There is also speculation that Chinese firms are participating in the futures market and driving the bullish price action. There is no way to prove this even if the commitment of trader’s reports was up to date. However, considering the US-China trade environment and stated expectations of the US trade delegation on China, this thesis has merit. 
 

Reuters reported on November 12th China had a large surplus of soybeans at 10.3 million tons, up 3.6 million tons year over year (YoY). This supply glut may be the reason there has not been any Chinese declared purchases of US soybeans since the prior trade delegation meeting last month. "State firms may be waiting for margins to recover before making large-scale purchases," said Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting.
 

Last month, President Trump met with Chinese president Xi Jinping in a continued effort to resolve trade disputes. During this meeting, the US delegation announced that China had agreed to buy 12 million tons of US soybeans by year end, although this has not been confirmed publicly by China. Assuming the agreement is honored, Chinese firms may be using futures to facilitate this requirement, through future delivery, before reducing their current inventory but locking in the current price. 
 

Soybean futures reached a YoY high, 1150.5, in Thursday’s trading. Soybeans are trading well above the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages and closed above historical support of 1080 and 1140. The 50-day SMA is at 1047.81 and the 200-day SMA is at 1037.15. 
 

The 14-day RSI closed at 72.211% after crossing above the 70% overbought threshold. Trading resistance above the overbought threshold may show itself as the market attempts to cool off. 
 

The directional movement index indicates a strong bullish trend with ADX at 47.5. The positive directional index is moving up at 37 and the negative directional index being low at 7. 
 

PPI – 8:30 AM ET

Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET

Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Inventories 10:30 AM ET

WASDE report 12:00 PM ET

Daily/Weekly USDA Export Sales Reports – 12:00 PM ET

CFTC COT – 3:30 PM ET
 

New futures products are available to trade with a futures-approved account on all thinkorswim platforms: 

• Ripple (/XRP)
• Micro Ripple (/MXP)
• Micro Corn (/MZC)
• Micro Wheat (/MZW)
• Micro Soybean (/MZS)
• Micro Soybean Oil Futures (/MZL)
• Micro Soybean Meal Futures (/MZM)
• 1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
• Solana (/SOL)
• Micro Solana (/MSL)

Visit the Schwab.com Futures Markets page to explore the wide variety of futures contracts available for trading through Charles Schwab Futures and Forex LLC.