Looking to the Futures

Live Cattle Futures

January 22, 2026 Randy Todd

Since the beginning of December, cattle futures have been showing signs of strength.

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Live cattle futures (/LEG26) are currently trading around 233 points, up about 14 percent from the pullback which started at a high of 248.3 on October 16. Then dropping to a low of 204.55 on November 25^th.

Slight gains were seen on Wednesday morning in the front month with the February contracts trading up .55 points. Open interest rose on Tuesday by 1,604 contracts, with February contracts down 2,993. The CME's Feeder Cattle index was down just .27 to 367.41 on Tuesday, while the boxed beef index was up by 1.44 to 361.51.

Production forecasts have slightly changed from last month per the USDA Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook released on January 16^th. Based on preliminary December slaughter data, fourth-quarter 2025 beef production is raised, bringing the annual total to 26.000 billion pounds. The 2026 production forecast is raised fractionally from last month to 25.735 billion pounds. Import forecasts are raised for 2026 based on greater than previously expected global beef supplies and strong domestic demand. The export forecast for 2026, however, has been lowered based on greater than previously expected competition in Asia.

The USDA Outlook Report also notes developments in the global beef trade over the past month. As of January 1st, the United States tariff-rate-quota for countries without a specific quota or free trade agreement has decreased to 52,005 metric tons while a new quota has been established for the United Kingdom at 13,000 metric tons.

Mexico also announced a new 70,000 metric ton quota for beef imports from countries without a free trade agreement. Historically, Mexico had an anti-inflation decree that allowed beef to enter duty-free even if Mexico did not have a free-trade agreement with that country. This could be limiting to Brazil's beef shipments to Mexico, which could help support the United States beef exports to Mexico.

All eyes are on the upcoming weather this weekend, a powerful winter storm is poised to sweep across the Plains and Midwest, bringing a mix of snow, ice, and dangerously cold temperatures. Significant snowfall is expected as the winter system brings Arctic air into Nebraska, Iowa, and the Dakotas. Areas further south including Kansas, Missouri, and parts of Oklahoma are expected to see a mix of freezing rain and sleet, which can cause difficulties working cattle and treacherous travel conditions.

Technicals

Looking at the February live cattle futures (/LEG26) on a one year one day chart, we can see the strength live cattle had in 2025 until October 16^th but then pulling back to a low on November 25^th. /LE has since recovered about 60 percent of the losses. However, more recently, we can see the dip below the 20-day simple moving average which occurred last Friday on January 16^th. RSI holds tight in the middle at 52.6364 and implied volatility has pulled back to 14.5% after spiking last Friday.

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Contract Specifications

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Economic Calendar

GDP – Final Q3 - Delayed 8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
Personal Income & Outlays - Delayed 10:00 AM ET
Natural Gas Inventories 10:30 AM ET
Oil Inventories 12:00 PM ET

New Products

New futures products are available to trade with a futures-approved account on all thinkorswim platforms:

Ripple (/XRP)
Micro Ripple (/MXP)
Micro Corn (/MZC)
Micro Wheat (/MZW)
Micro Soybean (/MZS)
Micro Soybean Oil Futures (/MZL)
Micro Soybean Meal Futures (/MZM)
1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
Solana (/SOL)
Micro Solana (/MSL)

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