Looking to the Futures

Markets reacted positively to reports that the United States sent Iran a 15-point proposal aimed at ending the war. The prospect of de-escalation has helped ease risk premiums, particularly in energy, while supporting broader stabilization across asset classes heading into Wednesday’s session.

Energy prices pulled back sharply on the news, reflecting reduced concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. May, Brent Crude Oil Futures (/BZK26) fell roughly 5.31% to $98.94 per barrel, while May, Light Sweet Crude Oil (/CLK26) Futures declined approximately 5.20% to $87.61 per barrel. The move lower underscores how sensitive crude markets remain to geopolitical developments and headline risk, especially after recent volatility that had priced in heightened risk. 

Among the biggest movers overnight, the metals complex saw a strong rebound. May Silver Futures (/SIK26) surged 5.00% to 73.065, while April Gold Futures (/GCJ26) gained 3.55% to 4557.7. The move comes after gold had declined for 10 consecutive sessions, briefly touching a year-to-date low of 4100 earlier this week. This bounce could suggest renewed buying interest at lower levels, as traders step back into precious metals amid heightened volatility.

Treasury futures also firmed as yields edged lower, with June 10-year Treasury Note Futures (ZNM26) up 0.41% to 110’280. The move indicates a modest bid for duration, suggesting that even with improving geopolitical sentiment, investors continue to position cautiously amid mixed economic signals. Lower yields may also reflect expectations that central banks could maintain a more measured approach if global uncertainty persists.

The United Kingdom released its latest inflation data. According to the Office for National Statistics, inflation stood at 3% in February. This was the last reading before the start of the Iran war. The U.K. is anticipating inflation to increase due to the war and its impact on energy prices. 

Looking ahead, traders will be closely monitoring developments surrounding the proposed peace plan and any confirmation of meaningful negotiations. Markets remain highly reactive to headlines, and any shifts in tone that could drive volatility. In the near term, volatility is likely to remain elevated, reinforcing the importance of risk management and staying nimble as geopolitical drivers continue to evolve.

The 9-day SMA (white dots) shows that May, Light Sweet Crude Oil (/CLK26) Futures dropped below this level on Monday and found support where the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA, green line) and the 20-day SMA (yellow dots) converge. The 50-day SMA continues (Orange line) to diverge from the 200-day moving average (Red line), indicating a strengthening trend. This thesis is further supported by the formation of higher lows. Volatility remains elevated at 93.39%, though it is down from the March 23 high of 276.71%. The Relative Strength Index has retreated from overbought levels into neutral territory at 54.3472.

The Hightower Report for May Crude Oil says a negative signal for a short-term trend was given on a close under the 9-day simple moving average (SMA). The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next downside target is now at 85.23. The next area of resistance is around 91.68 and 94.95, while 1st support hits today at 86.82 and below there at 85.23.

9-Day SMA                        93.89

20-Day SMA                      86.55

21-DAY EMA                     86.15

50-Day SMA                      72.48

100-Day SMA                    65.53

200-Day SMA                    64.93

14-Day RSI                        54.3472%

Implied Volatility               93.3%.

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