Looking to the Futures
Crude Rallies Following OPEC+ Meeting
Crude oil futures (/CLF26) were trading higher to start Monday’s session, after OPEC+ announced on Sunday that its members would keep oil production unchanged for the first quarter of 2026.
In addition, in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude oil stockpiles increased by 2.8-million barrels during the week ending November 21. This was contrary to expectations for a 500,000-barrel draw.
Oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, stood at 426.9 million barrels, 4% below the five-year average.
U.S. oil production decreased by 20,000 barrels per day last week and averaged 13.814 million barrels per day. This was 321,000 barrels per day higher than one year ago.
On the oil product side, distillate inventories increased by 1.1-million barrels, which was above expectations for a 600,000-barrel build. Distillate inventories are now 5% below the five-year average for this time of year.
Gasoline inventories increased by 2.5 million barrels, which was above expectations for a 700,000-barrel build. These stockpiles are now 3% below the five-year average.
EIA said gasoline production increased from the previous week and averaged 9.6-million barrels per day. Distillate production also rose last week, averaging 5 million barrels per day.
The agency also reported that U.S. ethanol production rose last week, averaging 1.113 million barrels per day. Expectations were for 1.115 million barrels per day.
U.S. ethanol inventories fell slightly to 22 million barrels last week. Traders were expecting inventories of 22.2 million barrels.
Digging further into the EIA report, refinery utilization increased by 2.3 percentage point to 92.3% last week. Expectations were for an increase to 91.8%. U.S. gasoline demand rose by 199,000 barrels per day to 8,726 million barrels per day. Distillate demand declined last week, falling by 520,000 barrels per day to 3.362 million barrels per day.
Oil storage in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the WTI Crude Oil futures (/CL) contract, remained unchanged last week at 21.8 million barrels.
The U.S. crude oil rig count rose by two and now total 419 rigs during the week ending November 14. That is down 12.5% from a year ago according to energy services firm Baker Hughes’ North American Rotary Rig Count report.
This morning, U.S. stock index futures moved lower in the early hours with the S&P 500® (–0.52%), the Nasdaq-100® (–0.62%), the Russell 2000® (–0.79%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average® (–0.43%) all negative.
In Asia, major indexes closed mixed, with the Shanghai (+0.65%) and the Hang Seng (+0.67%) higher but the Nikkei (–1.89%) lower.
European trading saw the DAX (–1.65%), the CAC (–0.90%), and the FTSE (–0.01%) markets move lower by midday.
Futures on the move
Natural gas futures (/NGF26) ended Friday’s trading session in the green (+6.41%) as a winter storm headed through the central and eastern portions of the U.S. this past weekend.
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center is forecasting below normal temperatures from December 3rd to December 9th for most of the upper Midwest to New England. Above normal temperatures are expected the Southeast and South-central portions of the U.S. during this period.
In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported U.S. natural gas inventories declined by 11 billion cubic feet (Bcf) during the week ending November 21. This was above market expectations of a 1 Bcf draw. U.S. gas inventories are currently 4.2% above the 5-year average and –0.8% below last year.
Canadian dollar futures (/6CZ25) closed higher on Friday (+0.46%) with the lead month December contract trading at one-month highs. Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 0.6% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 vs. a revised -0.5% contraction in Q2.
Platinum futures (/PLF26) closed higher on Friday (+6.23%), with the lead month January contract trading at two-week highs. The World Platinum Investment Council is forecasting a 692,000-ounce deficit for 2025. If accurate, this would be the third consecutive annual deficit.
What else to watch today
Major economic reports, trading events, and news items that could potentially impact specific futures markets:
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI™ Finalfor November (interest rate and stock index futures)
ISM Manufacturing PMI for November (interest rates and stock indices)
Construction Spending for October (interest rates)
Treasury auctions
3-and 6-month T-bills
Federal Reserve speakers
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak today
New Products
New futures products are available to trade with a futures-approved account on all thinkorswim platforms:
- Ripple (/XRP)
- Micro Ripple (/MXP)
- Micro Corn (/MZC)
- Micro Wheat (/MZW)
- Micro Soybean (/MZS)
- Micro Soybean Oil Futures (/MZL)
- Micro Soybean Meal Futures (/MZM)
- 1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
- Solana (/SOL)
- Micro Solana (/MSL)
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