Looking to the Futures
Happy Trails 2025
Markets and investors wished 2025 farewell on Wednesday with most major indices dipping lower on the last trading day of the year. E-mini S&P 500 March expiration Futures (/ESH26) settled at 6892.5 on Wednesday down from its previous close of 6944.25. The broad market S&P 500 Index dropped 0.74%, the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.76%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.63%. Despite these indexes posting four-session losing streaks to end the year, many investors celebrated 2025 as a year that defied all odds with the S&P recording a 16.39% gain, the Nasdaq posting a 20.36% advance, and the Dow climbing 12.97% for the year. From sweeping tariff announcements back in April and tense trade negotiations that followed, to an AI frenzy and datacenter buildout, Federal Reserve pressures and rate cuts, global tensions and peace deals, and even a government shutdown, 2025 came with a lot whether we liked it or not. With all of this, came some big winners and losers for the year when looking at the Futures market.
The story and winners of the year for 2025 all fall within the precious metals group with Silver, Platinum, and Palladium having a year to remember. According to Barchart.com, Silver Futures (/SIH26) led the year-to-date gains posting a whopping +128.01%, Platinum (/PLJ26) coming in a close 2nd with a +116.20% YTD rise, and Palladium (/PAH26) rounding out the top 3 with a +75.36% increase for the year. Gold (/GCG26) with an honorable mention at number 5 with a +55.53% gain. With winners, there must also be losers in which Orange Juice (/OJH26), Butter Cash-Settled, and Rough Rice (/ZRH26) Futures posted the biggest declines YTD. These were down -52.24%, -42.55%, and -31.15% respectively.
Some other honorable mentions of 2025:
Bitcoin's rise and all-time high set back in October, which was then shortly proceeded by the flash crash that sent prices well below $100k and Bitcoin ending the year down roughly 6%. This marked the first full-year loss for the largest cryptocurrency since the "crypto winter" of 2022.
Light Sweet Crude Oil (/CLG26) Futures posted a -14.32% YTD decline amidst a volatile year that included heightened middle east tensions earlier in the year and ending the year with persistent geopolitical risks from Venezuela, Nigeria, & Russia.
Feeder Cattle Futures (/GFF26) closed the year with strength with an increase of +23.74% YTD. Declining herd numbers, increased demand for beef, and the USDA's decision to close the southern border due to the New World Screwworm crisis led to a compelling year for cattle prices.
Despite a sputtering "Santa Claus rally" for equity markets to end the year, the S&P 500 is coming off its 3rd consecutive year of solid gains in which it saw a rise of roughly +24% in 2023, +23% in 2024, & +16% in 2025. This extended gain over 3 years is the 2nd best 3-year winning streak since 2000. According to strategists surveyed by CNBC, they expect the S&P 500 could post yet another double-digit advance in 2026 which would be the 1st time since back in 2003-2007 that the index has posted 4 straight years of gains. Time will tell if this optimism stands true as 2026 rolls in and many key economic and geopolitical events await in the coming months ahead. With that said, we wish you all a Happy New Year and look forward to the year ahead!
Technicals
Looking at the daily chart for /ESH26, prices declined on Wednesday settling at 6892.5, right above the 20-day Simple Moving average of 6890.95 and still well above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMAs. The 14-day RSI closed at 52.0709, indicating a rather neutral stance sitting right near the middle between oversold and overbought. Volume has been lighter in the past 2 weeks amidst the holiday trading with volume for the day ending at 910,653 contracts traded, well below the 50-day average of 1,499,237. According to the Daily Hightower Report, /ESH26 may experience support at the 6864.88 and 6846.94 levels and resistance at the 6926.12 and 6969.43 levels.
20-Day SMA 6890.95
50-Day SMA 6831.52
100-Day SMA 6717.87
200-Day SMA 6317.66
14-Day RSI 52.0709
Volume Avg (50-day) 1,499,237
Contract Specifications
Economic Calendar
9:45 AM ET: S&P Final U.S. Manufacturing
New Products
New futures products are available to trade with a futures-approved account on all thinkorswim platforms:
- Ripple (/XRP)
- Micro Ripple (/MXP)
- Micro Corn (/MZC)
- Micro Wheat (/MZW)
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- Micro Soybean Oil Futures (/MZL)
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- 1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
- Solana (/SOL)
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