Today's Options Market Update

More inflation and earnings loom heading toward the weekend amid worries that the war—and its impact on global oil prices—could persist. Crude flirted with $100 per barrel this morning and major indexes declined despite the International Energy Agency agreeing to release 400 million barrels of oil. The U.S. announced a major release, too.

Following today's weekly initial jobless claims report that came in low at 213,000, more labor data looms at 10 a.m. ET tomorrow with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The JOLTS reading is from January, so a bit long in the tooth, but still could be closely watched for clues about hiring after February's nonfarm payrolls report of 92,000 jobs lost. Tomorrow morning also brings January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, a report the Fed eyes closely for inflation. Analysts expect monthly 0.3% growth for the headline reading and 0.4% for core, compared with 0.4% for both in December.

Major indexes barely budged Wednesday before settling mixed, with chip names lending the Nasdaq a slight boost. Still, crude remains in control. Bearish market sentiment is up dramatically this week, but data this morning had positive vibes, including jobless claims and better-than-expected January housing starts and building permits.

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is higher by ~4 basis points to 4.247%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is higher by 0.41 to 99.64.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is higher by 9.99% to $95.97/barrel.

Gold prices have traded in a range of $5,130.00-5,197.80 and were last seen trading lower by ~0.61% to $5,147.60/oz.

Natural Gas prices for March futures have traded in a range of $3.162-3.292 today and were last seen trading lower by 0.56% to $3.227.

Bitcoin (BTC) is lower by ~0.84% over the last 24 hours to $69,613.03 today.

Shares of Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. (OLLI + $6.64 to $110.01) are moving higher this morning after the discount retailer reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.39 (in-line with estimates) on Q4 revenue that increased 16.8% year-over-year to $779.3M (slightly below the $783.5M FactSet consensus estimate). Looking ahead, the company guided fiscal 2026 (FY26) adjusted net income to a range of $4.40-4.50 on FY26 net sales of $2.99-3.01B versus the respective $4.48 & $3.0B FactSet consensus estimates. Calls are outnumbering puts ~2:1 with the April 17^th 125.00 call being the highest volume contract (volume is 144).

Also trading to the upside this morning is Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY + $1.97 to $57.55) after Wells Fargo “double upgraded” the oil & gas producer to “Overweight” from “Underweight” and hiked their price target on the stock to $69.00 from $47.00. Wells Fargo analyst Sam Margolin acknowledged that OXY’s peer-leading oil sensitivity is both an opportunity and a risk but cited the company’s Permian capital efficiency trends as the reason for the rating change. Calls are outpacing puts ~6:1 with the April 17^th 65.00 call seeing the most action from traders (volume is 12,533).

New 52-week highs (64 new highs today): CF Industries Holdings (CF + $14.72 to $134.85), Chevron Corp. (CVX + $4.36 to $196.15), HCA Holdings Inc. (HCA + $9.88 to $547.16)

Some unusual call activity (~14:1 calls over puts) is being seen in Duke Energy Corp. (DUK + $2.57 to $132.60) which is primarily being driven by a 2,000 contract block that was bought on the April 17^th 120.00 call for $12.40 when the bid/ask spread was $9.90 x $12.60 (open interest is 404). We know that this block is a new position based on the open interest figure and we can assume that the intent is bullish in nature since the trade took place above the midpoint of the bid/ask spread.

Shares of Morgan Stanley (MS - $6.07 to $154.82) are under pressure this morning after the asset manager said that it is capping withdrawals from one of its private credit funds following a wave of redemption requests. Morgan Stanley’s North Haven Private Income Fund received investor requests to buy back roughly 10.5% of outstanding shares in its quarterly tender offer. The fund, with about $7.6B in total investments, capped has a previously disclosed repurchase cap of 5%. Calls are outnumbering puts nearly 2:1 with the March 20^th 190.00 call seeing the most action from traders (volume is 8,166).

Also trading to the downside today is G-III Apparel Group Inc. (GIII - $4.19 to $25.38) after the apparel maker reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.30 ($0.29 miss) on Q1 revenue of $771.488M (below the $791.985M consensus estimate). Looking ahead, GIII guided FY27 adjusted EPS to a range of $2.00-2.10 (below the $2.75 FactSet consensus estimate) on FY27 revenue that is expected to be $2.71B (vs. the $2.707B consensus estimate). Puts are outnumbering calls ~10:1 with the March 20^th 25.00 put being the highest volume contract (volume is 528).

New 52-week lows (131 new lows today): Ares Management LP (ARES - $3.13 to $100.33), Builders FirstSource Inc. (BLDR - $0.64 to $90.47), Humana Inc. (HUM - $3.20 to $167.75)

Some unusual put activity (~15:1 puts over calls) is being seen in TE connectivity PLC (TEL - $5.74 to $199.40) which is primarily being driven by a 1,670 contract block that was bought on the April 17^th 190.00 put for $6.00 when the bid/ask spread was $4.00 x $6.20 (open interest is 35). We know that this block is a new position based on the open interest figure and we can assume that the intent is bearish in nature since the trade took place above the midpoint of the bid/ask spread.

Lightwave Logic Inc. (LWLG + $2.09 to $7.11): Option volume is running at ~16x the daily average on this maker of photonic devices and electro-optical polymer materials which is primarily driven by activity on the March 20^th 7.00 call. Volume on this contract is 4,863 versus open interest of 1,358, so we know that the activity primarily represents fresh positioning. The majority of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were bought at various times for between $0.60-0.90 each, which suggests bullish intent.

Jabil Inc. (JBL - $3.89 to $251.57): Option volume is running at ~10x the daily average on this provider of engineering, manufacturing and supply chain solutions which is primarily being driven by a couple of large blocks that simultaneously traded on the March 20^th expiration earlier this morning:

• 232.50 put (open interest is 0): A 3,800 contract block was bought for $6.57 when the bid/ask spread was $4.90 x $7.90.
• 220.00 put (open interest is 5,339): A 3,800 contract block was sold for $3.87 when the bid/ask spread was $2.55 x $5.50.

Based on the respective open interest figures, it appears that previously held long 3,800 contract put position was rolled up from the 220.00 to the 232.50 strike, which would suggest that the block trader is still bearish on this stock. JBL is slated to report fiscal Q2 earnings on Wednesday (March 18th) before the bell, so this positioning captures the potential impact of that event.

Pinterest Inc. (PINS - $1.15 to $18.24): Option volume is running at ~6x the daily average on this visual search and discovery platform operator which is primarily being driven by a couple of large blocks that simultaneously traded on the April 17^th expiration earlier this morning:

• 21.00 call (open interest is 5,588): A 32,000 contract block traded for $0.48 when the bid/ask spread was $0.42 x $0.67.
• 22.00 call (open interest is 398): A 32,000 contract block was sold at the bid price of $0.26.

We know that these blocks are new positions based on the respective open interest figures, and it appears (since the block trade on the 22.00 call took place at the bid price) that a $1.00-wide bull call spread was established for a net debit of $0.22 (x 32K contracts x 100 multiplier, excluding commissions). The positioning suggests that the block trader believes that PINS will close above the break-even price of $21.22 at expiration.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX + 2.02 to 26.25) has been in positive territory all day today (the intraday range is 24.60-27.22), as equity markets are higher across the board around the midday mark (DJI - 540, SPX - 75, $COMP - 305). VIX option volume is above average today at 810,557 contracts, and calls are outnumbering puts roughly 2:1.