Today's Options Market Update

Stocks Lower, VIX Higher, as AI Disruption Weighs on Markets

February 12, 2026 Nathan Peterson

Stocks are lower across the board as persistent AI disruption fears dampen investor sentiment.

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With the jobs market on slightly firmer footing after January's solid growth, the second aspect of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate, inflation, arrives tomorrow. January's Consumer Price Index (CPI), due before Friday's open, is likely to show annual inflation well above the Fed's 2% target, reinforcing ideas that rate cuts might have to wait. Major indexes edged up early Thursday but may lack direction before CPI, while Treasury yields dipped from Wednesday's highs.

Today features some data palate cleansers between Wednesday and Friday's entrees. Initial jobless claims last week slipped by 5,000 to 227,000, below Briefing.com's consensus of 230,000. January existing home sales hit the tape soon after the open and are expected to fall slightly from December. Meanwhile, investors digest results from Cisco (CSCO), McDonald's (MCD), and AppLovin (APP), all of which received unenthusiastic receptions in early trading.

On Wednesday, stocks ended flat to lower on sliding rate cut hopes following the jobs report. Small caps—which tend to be more exposed to debt—fared the worst. Earnings continue this afternoon with Applied Materials (AMAT) and Arista Networks (ANET). The first, a semiconductor equipment manufacturer, beat analysts' expectations last time out but saw shares fall on cautious guidance. Arista is part of the AI infrastructure build-out and could be a decent barometer of demand. Chip and AI-related stocks generally rose early today, possibly a sign of risk-on sentiment.

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research

Morning Rush

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is lower by ~5 basis point to 4.143%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is lower by 0.04 to 96.79.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is lower by 1.64% to $63.57/barrel.

Gold prices have traded in a range of $5,061.30-5,122.80 and were last seen trading lower by ~0.02% to $5,097.30/oz.

Natural Gas prices for March futures have traded in a range of $3.18-3.316 today and were last seen trading higher by 2.91% to $3.251.

Bitcoin (BTC) is higher by ~0.54% over the last 24 hours to $67,388.57 today.

Today's Bullish Activity

Gapping up to all-time highs this morning is Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM + $21.36 to $252.21) after the provider of advanced engineered solutions to the aerospace and transportation industries reported Q4 adjusted earnings of $1.05 per share ($0.08 beat) on Q4 revenue that increased 18.4% year-over-year (YoY) to $2.168B (above the $2.125B expected). The company also issued upside guidance as Q1 adjusted EPS is expected to come in a range of $1.09-1.11 with Q1 revenue expected to come in a range of $2.225-2.245B, above the respective $1.02 & $2.162B consensus estimates. Puts are outnumbering calls ~2:1 with the February 20^th 190.00 put seeing the most action from traders (volume is 3,536).

Also trading to the upside this morning is Exelon Corp. (EXC + $2.86 to $47.31) after the utility reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.59 ($0.04 beat) on Q4 sales of $5.412B (above the $5.384B expected). Looking ahead, the company expected full-year 2026 (FY26) adjusted EPS to come in a range of $2.81-2.91 (vs. the $2.84 consensus estimate), with adjusted EPS compounded annual growth to come in at the top end of +5.0-7.0% from 2025-2029. Calls are outnumbering puts ~4:1 with the March 20^th 50.00 call being the highest volume contract (volume is 365).

New 52-week highs (363 new highs today): Casey’s General Store Inc. (CASY + $20.93 to $669.72), Deere & Company (DE + $8.74 to $621.43), Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC + $11.36 to $226.35)

Notable Call Activity

Some unusual call activity (~14:1 calls over puts) is being seen in PG&E Corp. (PCG + $0.34 to $17.44) as option traders primarily target the February 20^th 18.00 call. Volume on this contract is 11,377 versus open interest of 931, so we know that the volume primarily represents new positioning. The majority of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were bought at various times for between $0.13-0.18 each, which suggests bullish intent.

Today's Bearish Activity

Shares of AppLovin Corp. (APP - $81.20 to $375.61) after the advertising platform operator beat quarterly estimates last night after the bell. The company reported Q4 net income from continuing operations of $3.24 ($0.29 beat) on Q4 revenue that increased 66% YoY to $1.66B (above the $1.61B FactSet consensus estimate). Looking ahead, the company said that Q1 revenue is expected to come in a range of $1.75-1.78B, which is above the $1.70B FactSet consensus estimate. Puts are outnumbering calls ~3:2 with the February 13^th 400.00 put being the highest volume contract (volume is 1,395).

Also trading to the downside today is Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO - $8.88 to $76.64) after the networking equipment maker beat quarterly estimates but on lower margins due to higher memory costs. The company reported fiscal Q2 adjusted earnings of $1.04 per share ($0.02 beat) on Q2 revenue of $15.35B (above the $15.11B expected), with Q2 adjusted gross margins coming in at 67.5% (below the 68.14% expected). Looking ahead, Cisco guided Q3 adjusted EPS to a range of $1.02-1.04 (vs. the $1.03 expected) and Q3 revenue to a range of $15.40-15.60B (above the $15.184B FactSet consensus estimate). Calls and puts are trading roughly even with the April 20^th 41.00 call seeing the most action from traders (volume is 823).

New 52-week lows (170 new lows today): Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP - $8.27 to $209.30), FactSet Research systems Inc. (FDS - $0.82 to $192.94), Netflix Inc. (NFLX - $4.15 to $75.47)

Notable Put Activity

Some unusual put activity (~11:1 puts over calls) is being seen in Cognizant Technology Inc. (CTSH - $5.00 to $65.91) as option traders primarily target the April 17^th 65.00 put. Volume on this contract is 1,793 versus open interest of 212, so we know that the volume primarily represents new positioning. The majority of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were bought around the same time at the ask price of $2.10 each, which suggests bearish intent.

Volume Signals

Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (KPTI + $1.66 to $9.03): Option volume is running at ~11x the daily average on this commercial-stage pharmaceutical company which is primarily driven by a couple of large blocks that traded at different times on the March 20^th 10.00 call – a 1,000 contract block was bought at the ask price of $2.50 and a 1,000 contract block was bought for $3.25 when the bid/ask spread was $0.35 x $4.00 (open interest is 1,209). Assuming both of these blocks are new positioning, we can assume that the intent is bullish in nature given where the trades took place within their respective spreads.

Fiverr International Ltd. (FVRR - $0.90 to $13.54): Option volume is running at ~10x the daily average on this online marketplace which is primarily being driven by a couple of large blocks that simultaneously traded on the January 2027 expiration earlier this morning:

23.00 call (open interest is 2,953): A 5,000 contract block was bought for $1.19 when the bid/ask spread was $0.80 x $1.35.
13.00 put (open interest is 718): A 5,000 contract block was sold for $2.44 when the bid/ask spread was $2.30 x $2.85.

We know that these blocks are new positions based on the respective open interest figures, and it appears that a (bullish) risk reversal was established for a net credit of $1.25 (x 5,000 contracts x 100 multiplier, excluding commissions). The positioning suggests that the block trader believes that FVRR has the potential to get above the $23.00 price level by the 2027 expiration date. It also suggests the block trader is comfortable getting long 500,000 shares of FVRR at an effective purchase price of $11.75 if FVRR closes below $13.00 at expiration.

SailPoint Inc. (SAIL - $0.41 to $14.85): Option volume is running at ~6x the daily average on this provider of identity security software which is primarily driven by a 1,460 contract block that was bought on the March 20^th 17.50 call for $0.62 when the bid/ask spread was $0.50 x $0.70 (open interest is 323). We know that this block is a new position based on the open interest figure, and we can assume that the intent is bullish in nature since the trade took place above the midpoint of the bid/ask spread.

Gauging Volatility

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX + 2.17 to 19.82) has been on both sides of the unchanged line today (the intraday range is 17.08-20.60), as equity markets are lower across the board around the midday mark (DJI - 509, SPX - 70, $COMP - 355). VIX option volume is above average today at 774,686 contracts, and calls are outnumbering puts roughly 2:1 so far today.

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