Today's Options Market Update

Wall Street enters midweek on cautious footing, watching every twist and turn in the Iran conflict. Though bears largely remain in control, major indexes edged up this morning amid info tech strength, taking a breather after yesterday's harsh decline. The war showed no signs of calming, however, as NATO forces shot down an Iranian missile headed toward Turkey and Iranian drones hit Saudi oil refining facilities, according to media reports.

"While the hope for everyone is that the conflict is short-lived, financial markets are mainly pricing in the tail risk of significantly higher oil prices and the potential ramifications on the economy, inflation, monetary policy, and by extension, corporate profits," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, or SCFR. In one sign of the conflict starting to hit home, U.S. gasoline prices now average $3.19 per gallon, the highest since September, according to AAA. Crude oil backtracked slightly this morning and briefly fell under $74 per barrel, down from peaks near $78 earlier this week.

On Tuesday, major indexes all fell about 1% but rebounded from early lows as President Trump promised protection for Gulf shipping. Today, investors await earnings from chip behemoth Broadcom (AVGO) later after ADP February jobs data this morning. The ADP reading, which tracks private sector jobs, showed February growth of 63,000. That was above Briefing.com's consensus of 42,000 and a downwardly revised 11,000, in January, but manufacturing jobs still fell. Friday's February nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show growth of 60,000, down from 130,000 in January, with unemployment steady at 4.3%.

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is higher by 2bps to 4.08%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is lower by 0.16% to 98.89.

The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) is down 12.05% to 20.77.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is higher by 0.58% to $75.04/barrel.

Bitcoin (BTC) is up by 7.35% to $73,500.

Ethereum (ETH) is up by 8.57% to $2,154.

Shares of Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN + $27.73 to $210.09) are higher by over 15.00% today, amidst a rise in the crypto sector, after President Trump met privately with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong on Tuesday and later announced his support for the passage of the market structure bill on his Truth Social media outlet. President Trump wrote in the Truth Social post that banks "need to make a good deal with the Crypto Industry" in order to advance digital asset legislation that has stalled on Capitol Hill. He wrote that a recently adopted crypto law is "being threatened and undermined by the Banks, and that is unacceptable"—echoing Coinbase's position, per Bloomberg.

Banks have been lobbying to ban any type of stablecoin yield payments as part of a sweeping crypto regulatory bill that is currently pending in the Senate. Banks are concerned that allowing yield-like payments on stablecoins could lead customers to pull deposits from their accounts and threaten lending, per Bloomberg. A large number of digital asset firms, including Coinbase, have disputed that claim and have fought back, leading to a stalling of the crypto market structure legislation bill earlier this year.

Option trading in COIN currently stands at 295,096 contracts, 3x the average daily volume with calls outpacing puts 2:1. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

• March 6th, 2026, 210.00 call accounted for 21,618 contracts; open interest is 2,676 contracts.
• March 6th, 2026, 220.00 call accounted for 9,069 contracts; open interest is 2,513 contracts.
• March 6th, 2026, 200.00 put accounted for 7,634 contracts; open interest is 169 contracts.

New 52-week highs (150 new highs today): Moderna Inc. (MRNA + $5.93 to $55.76), Ocugen Inc. (OCGN + $0.03 to $1.89), Target Corp. (TGT + $0.88 to $121.68), SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM + $3.07 to $32.00)

Unusual call activity is noted today in Crescent Energy Co. (CRGY - $0.01 to $11.23), as call volume currently stands at 11,522 contracts, 13x the average daily volume and 50x the put volume. Most of the activity can be attributed to multiple block purchases of the 12.50 strike calls in the April 17th, 2026, expiration month. Traders have paid an average price of $0.45 on over 9,400 contracts when the bid/ask was $0.30 x $0.45. There were 2,033 contracts of open interest, so it's likely these are additions to long positions (suggesting bullish intent). Shares of CRGY are up over 45% year-to-date, recently setting a 52-week high price of $12.40, just two days ago. It appears traders believe that level could once again get tested.

Another name exhibiting unusual call activity today is PBF Energy Inc. (PBF - $3.07 to $42.83), as call volume has risen to 11,245 contracts in morning trading, 11x the average volume and 20x the put volume. Most the volume can be attributed to a large call vertical roll in the March 20th, 2026, expiration month. Traders rolled their long positions from the March 42.00 strike up to the 44.00 strike in the same month, via a call ratio spread. By selling their in-the-money 42.00 strike long calls and buying the out-of the-money 44.00 strike calls, this allows the traders to maintain a bullish position while reducing their delta (directional risk). Traders often do that when shares rally through the long strikes, especially if the move happens quickly. Share of PBF just set a 52-week high price of $43.08 during this morning's trade and have rallied over 20% in the past week.

Shares of Gitlab Inc. (GTLB - $2.28 to $24.42) are down over 8.00% today, to a 52-week low, despite the company beating on Q4 revenue and earnings, as the forecast for 2027 showed prospects for slower revenue growth. Gitlab reported total revenue of $260 million in Q4, up 23% year-on-year, topping consensus of $252 million and earnings of $0.30 per share, also above expectations. However, it was the guidance that appears to be disappointing investors. Revenue guidance came in about $15M below consensus of $1.11B while earnings guidance of $0.76 to $0.80 per share also missed the analyst's expected mark of $1.06.

A number of analysts have lowered their price targets following the report, including Piper Sandler ($28 from $55), J.P. Morgan ($28 from $53), and Bernstein ($60 from $70).
 
Option trading in GTLB currently stands at 32,689 contracts, 6x the average daily volume with calls and puts basically even. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

• March 6th, 2026, 25.00 call accounted for 4,395 contracts; open interest is 75 contracts.
• March 20th, 2026, 25.00 call accounted for 2,529 contracts; open interest is 2,558 contracts.
• March 20th, 2026, 25.00 put accounted for 2,528 contracts; open interest is 3,271 contracts.

New 52-week lows (63 new lows today): Gitlab Inc. (GTLB - $2.28 to $24.42), Iqiyi Inc. (IQ - $0.03 to $1.46), Boston Scientific Corp. (BSX - $1.02 to $72.83), Flowers Foods (FLO - $0.09 to $9.14)

There is unusual put activity today in Stubhub Holdings Inc. (STUB + $0.02 to $10.19). This activity equates to over 23,675 put contracts, 68x average daily put volume and 5x the call volume. A large put calendar trade between the March 6th and March 13th, 2026, expiration months is responsible for nearly all the volume. Traders have bought over 11,000 of the 8.50 strike put calendars, paying an average of $0.25 for the spread. Put calendars, below the current trading price, are traditionally bearish. In this instance, the put calendar would be most profitable if STUB shares close at $8.50 during this week's expiration. Stubhub releases earnings after today's close, so these traders appear to believe a pullback is likely.

Unusual activity has also been detected in Iqiyi Inc. (IQ - $0.03 to $1.46), as put volume stands at 6,207 contracts, 6x average volume and 5x call volume, in morning trading. Most of the volume is in the June 18th, 2026, expiration, as traders are active at the 1.50 put strike. Over 4,900 contracts have traded today, most on the buy side. It appears many of these trades are closing orders, given the open interest of 11,207. Traders may be closing out of short put positions, as shares of IQ push toward 52-week lows today.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX - 2.80 to 20.77) is lower by 12.05%, as equity markets are higher in early morning trading (DJI + 284, SPX + 61, COMPX + 330). VIX movement has occurred within a wide range today (the intraday range is 20.40 to 24.87). The highest volume contract is currently July 22nd, 2026, 60.00 call (volume is 80,041 vs. open interest of 2,162).