Today's Options Market Update

Stocks climbed approaching the weekend as crude prices eased and January inflation data met expectations. The January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a report the Fed eyes closely, rose 0.3% from December. Core PCE excluding food and energy, climbed 0.4%, matching December's 10-month high. On an annual basis, core PCE rose 3.1%, still far above the Federal Reserve's 2% goal. "Inflation remains elevated," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "Add in recent softness in labor market data, heightened uncertainty around the Iran conflict, and higher oil prices, and it leaves the Fed in a difficult position."

Soon after the open, investors brace for January job openings and preliminary March consumer sentiment, though primary focus remains on crude oil and the war. Crude gave stocks a slight tailwind, losing steam after the Wall Street Journal reported that India is in negotiations with Iran to allow some tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, possibly as soon as this weekend. Looking ahead, Monday kicks off Nvidia's (NVDA) GPU Tech Conference (GTC), with a speech by CEO Jensen Huang scheduled for 2 p.m. ET that day. Next week is packed with central bank meetings as policymakers struggle to decide on rates amid crosscurrents from the war.

On Thursday, major indexes fell sharply across the board and ended near their lows after Iran's supreme leader said the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed, though that was contradicted this morning by the U.S. secretary of defense, who told the media "we have been dealing with it" and not to worry about it, CNBC reported. Wall Street's finish Thursday looked soft technically, and so did the S&P 500's drop below 6,700 in what's on track to be its third straight losing week—the longest in a year. The S&P 500 Index is now down 2.5% year to date, and Thursday's settlement was the lowest since late November.

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is higher by 2 bps to 4.29%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is higher by 0.60% to 100.33.

The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) is up by 0.20% to 27.34.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is higher by 1.27% to $96.95/barrel.

Bitcoin (BTC) is up by 2.08% to $72,115.

Ethereum (ETH) is up by 3.189% to $2,142.

Shares of El Pollo Loco (LOCO + $2.00 to $12.88) are higher by 18.00% today, the largest percent increase since April 2020, setting a 52-week high, after the casual dining company reported quarterly earnings of $0.25, topping analyst consensus estimates for $0.20. The company also announced quarterly sales of $123.51 million, up 8.1% year over year, which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $122.78 million. Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $16.9 million, beating estimates of $14.4 million.

Going forward, El Pollo Loco forecasts 2026 adjusted EBITDA between $66.0 million and $68.0 million, toppings estimates for $63.55 million, and comparable restaurant sales growth of 1.0% to 3.0%.  The company is looking to open an additional 18-20 new restaurants in 2026.

LOCO shares received upgrades from analysts at Benchmark and Truist, taking their price target to $14 and $13, respectively.

Option trading in LOCO currently stands at 314 contracts, 14x the average daily volume with calls outpacing puts 2:1. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

• March 20th, 2026, 12.00 call accounted for 92 contracts; open interest is 168 contracts.
• March 13th, 2026, 13.00 put accounted for 70 contracts; open interest is zero contracts.
• April 17th, 2026, 12.00 put accounted for 30 contracts; open interest is zero contracts.

New 52-week highs (67 new highs today): Eon Resources Inc. (EONR + $0.06 to $1.41), Ocugen Inc. (OCGN + $0.12 to $2.46), Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ + $0.80 to $51.43), BP (BP + $0.37 to $42.52)

Unusual call activity is noted today in Chemours Co. (CC - $0.40 to $17.30), as call volume currently stands at 10,968 contracts, 33x the average daily volume and 50x the put volume. Activity is strongest in the July 17h, 2026, expiration month where over 10,000 contracts have already traded, specifically at the 22.00 strike. Traders have sold over the 22.00 strike calls through multiple block orders at prices ranging from $1.70 to $1.90, with most of these at the bid price. There were only 46 contracts of open interest, so we know this represents new positioning (suggesting neutral to bearish intent). Shares of CC have recently retreated nearly 20% since posting a 52-week high price of $21.85 back in mid-February. The sale of the 22.00 strike calls could suggest traders see that the recent 52-week high as an intermediate-term high tick in the stock's price level.

Another name exhibiting unusual call activity today is Global-E Online Ltd. (GLBE - $0.01 to $34.52), as call volume has risen to 4,059 contracts in morning trading, 300x the average volume and 1000x the put volume. Basically, all the volume can be attributed to multiple block purchases in the March 20th, 2026, expiration month. Traders bought a total of 4,058 of the 35.00 strike calls for $1.05 when the bid/ask was $0.50 x $1.05. There were 1,798 contracts of open interest, so this likely represents either new positioning or additions to current longs (suggesting bullish intent). Shares of GLBE would have to rally around $1.50 from their current level for these calls to break-even if held through next Friday's expiration.

Shares of Adobe Inc. (ADBE - $18.07 to $251.70) are down over 6.50% today, even after an earnings and revenue beat, as the company announced the retirement of its long-time CEO Shantanu Naraye.  Adobe reported Q1 adjusted EPS of $6.06, beating estimates of $5.88, with revenue of $6.40 billion versus $6.28 billion expected. The company also provided Q2 revenue guidance of $6.43-6.48 billion and adjusted EPS of $5.80-5.85 and affirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance with EPS of $23.30-23.50 and revenue of $25.9 billion.

It was likely, however, the resignation of 18-year veteran CEO Shantanu Narayen that investors keyed on amid the stock's weakness. Adobe announced that Narayen will remain in the position until a successor has been appointed and will stay on as board chairman. Per Bloomberg, "the CEO change adds questions around strategic continuity, capital allocation priorities and pace of innovation, and investors will likely focus on whether incoming leadership maintains a balance between disciplined execution and aggressive AI investment."

Multiple analysts have cut their price targets on ADBE shares including D.A. Davidson (to $300 from $500), Morgan Stanley (to $365 from $425), and KeyBanc (to $235 from $310).

Option trading in ADBE currently stands at 101,690 contracts, 13x the average daily volume with calls and puts basically even. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

• March 13th, 2026, 260.00 call accounted for 5,293 contracts; open interest is 346 contracts.
• March 13th, 2026, 250.00 put accounted for 4,796 contracts; open interest is 3,073 contracts.
• March 13th, 2026, 255.00 call accounted for 3,717 contracts; open interest is 165 contracts.

New 52-week lows (88 new lows today): Immutep Ltd. (IMMP - $2.23 to $0.53), Snap Inc. (SNAP - $0.07 to $4.58), Stellantis N.V. (STLA - $0.28 to $6.58), Par Technology Corp. (PAR - $2.10 to $13.75)

There is unusual put activity today in LyondellBasell Industries (LYB - $0.83 to $73.50). This activity equates to over 20,581 put contracts, 22x average daily put volume and 9x the call volume. Most of the activity has occurred in the April 17th, 2026, expiration, as traders are targeting the 70.00, 65.00, and 55.00 strike puts. Volume at these strikes has totaled over 19,000 contracts. Traders purchased over 13,600 of the 70.00 puts through a couple large block trades an average price of $3.70. In addition, traders also purchased 2,500 65.00/55.00 put vertical spreads in a separate transaction. Both of these transactions appear to represent new positions based upon open interest (suggesting bearish intent).  Shares of LYB have been strong this year, up nearly 70% year-to-date. These trades could represent hedges against long stock positions.

Unusual activity has also been detected in the iShares Canada ETF (EWC - $0.63 to $55.22), as put volume stands at 15,085 contracts, 50x average volume and 90x call volume, in morning trading. A 1x2 ratio put calendar between the March 20th and April 17th, 2026 expiration months is driving today's volume. It appears that traders are closing a long position of 10,000 March 52.00 puts and opening a long position of 5,000 April 52.00 puts. Because the trade is a 1x2 ratio, the cost of the calendar spread has been reduced to a $0.35 debit (suggesting bearish intent). Shares of EWC appear to be breaking below a recent descending triangle and are now trading below the 50-day SMA.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX + 0.05 to 27.34) is basically unchanged as equity markets are lower in early morning trading (DJI - 57, SPX - 26, COMPX - 176). VIX movement has occurred within a wider range today (the intraday range is 24.67 to 28.47). The highest volume contract is currently March 18th, 2026, 28.00 call (volume is 48,654 vs. open interest of 125,058).