Today's Options Market Update

U.S. jobs growth turned negative in February, plunging 92,000 as unemployment ticked up to 4.4%, the government said. The decline took investors by surprise after a revised gain of 126,000 in January. This follows a historically poor year for the jobs market in 2025, and may raise concerns about economic growth, especially combined with the recent war-fueled surge in crude oil.

Today's data paints a far more unsettled jobs picture, considering consensus was for 60,000 new jobs, with unemployment unchanged at 4.3%. The January report had raised hopes that things were improving. Stocks, already down before the data, extended losses immediately after, and the 10-year Treasury note yield quickly rolled back overnight gains. "This is a weak report, and combined with the war in Iran, it puts the Fed in a tough spot," said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "The report could be complicated by weather and strikes in the health care sector, but it's still weak."

On Thursday, major indexes fell but finished well off lows. "The market isn't trading war as much as trading oil," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at SCFR. "If crude remains stable, equities likely remain stable; if it spikes toward $100, the macro story changes quickly." Friday's data puts a spotlight on rates as former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan celebrates his 100th birthday today. Approaching the weekend, stocks seem far from "irrationally exuberant." Crude spiked 6% to new two-year highs near $86 per barrel Friday after Qatar said Gulf oil countries could halt shipments within days, and maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is completely stopped, Bloomberg reported. Also, there are reports that Kuwait has cut oil production. U.S. gasoline prices are up nearly 11% over the last four days, the sharpest surge since 2005, but the S&P 500 Index entered the day down less than 1% from last Friday's close.

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is unchanged at 4.14%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is lower by 0.37% to 98.94.

The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) is up 8.90% to 25.85.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is higher by 10.00% to $89.10/barrel.

Bitcoin (BTC) is down by 3.80% to $68,820.

Ethereum (ETH) is down by 5.60% to $1,984.

Shares of Marvell Technology (MRVL + $11.80 to $87.48) are higher by over 15.00% today, after the chipmaker reported Q4 adjusted EPS and revenues that beat analyst estimates and said its year-over-year revenue growth rate will accelerate each quarter throughout fiscal 2027. For Q4, Marvell earned $0.80 per share and revenue of $2.22 billion, a 22% year-over-year increase. Date center revenue was $1.65 billion, up 21% year-over-year.

Going forward, the company guided Q1 revenue to $2.52 billion, significantly exceeding analyst estimates of $2.28 billion and Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.79. For fiscal year 2027, Marvell forecasts total revenue to grow more than 30% to nearly $11 billion while data center revenue is expected to grow by 40%.

MRVL shares received multiple price target hikes from analysts at Rosenblatt Securities ($140 from $115), Goldman Sachs ($100 from $90), and Stifel ($120 from $114).

Option trading in MRVL currently stands at 143,796 contracts, 16x the average daily volume with calls outpacing puts 2.5:1. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

• March 6th, 2026, 90.00 call accounted for 9,750 contracts; open interest is 5,229 contracts.
• March 20th, 2026, 90.00 call accounted for 6,600 contracts; open interest is 10,612 contracts.
• March 20th, 2026, 85.00 call accounted for 4,861 contracts; open interest is 19,738 contracts.

New 52-week highs (103 new highs today): Day One Biopharmaceuticals Inc. (DAWN + $8.38 to $21.16), Red Cat Holdings Inc. (RCAT + $1.74 to $16.82), Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras (PBR + $1.00 to $17.73), Amprius Technologies Inc. (AMPX + $1.47 to $16.36)

Unusual call activity is noted today in Mitek System Inc. (MITK - $0.01 to $15.19), as call volume currently stands at 4,109 contracts, 20x the average daily volume and 1000x the put volume. Most of the activity can be attributed to multiple block purchases of the 17.50 strike calls in the July 17th, 2026, expiration month. Traders paid an average price of $1.88 on over 3,900 contracts when the bid/ask was $1.80 x $1.90. There were 54 contracts of open interest, so these are likely new positions (suggesting bullish intent). Shares of MITK are up over 45% year-to-date, recently setting a 52-week high price of $15.61 yesterday. It appears traders who purchased these calls believe that level could get breached in the next few months.

Another name exhibiting unusual call activity today is CF Industry Holdings (CF + $9.25 to $120.03), as call volume has risen to 14,600 contracts in morning trading, 11x the average volume and 15x the put volume. Over half of the volume is in the March 20th, 2026, expiration month, particularly at the 115.00 and 120.00 strike, where over 8,000 contracts have traded. While trading has been two-ways, we did see a large 3,400 contract block trade sold at the 115.00 call strike for $8.10 when the bid/ask was $7.90 x $8.90. This may have been a closing trade, as the open interest was 3,690 coming into the day. Shares of CF are up over 7.50% today, up over 50% year-to-date, and set a new 52-week high price of $120.49 earlier this morning.

Shares of Gap Inc. (GAP - $3.56 to $23.64) are down over 13.00% today, the most intraday since last May, after the retailer reported Q4 profit that came in slightly below expectations, as two of its apparel chains underperformed expectations. Gap's EPS of $0.45 was below expectations for $0.54, as were gross margins of 38.1% versus 38.2% expected. Net sales, however, were in line at $4.24 billion. Old Navy, the company's biggest brand, missed comparable-sales estimates with 3% growth versus 4.35% expected while Athleta, the smallest brand, posted a 10% decline in same-store sales and missed estimates, per Bloomberg.

Going forward, Gap forecasts fiscal 2026 net sales growth of 2% to 3% and adjusted EPS of $2.20-$2.35.  Q1 gross margins are expected to be weaker than initial estimates, as tariffs present a 2 percentage-point headwind, per the report. Gap did, however, announce a $1 billion share repurchase authorization.

Analysts have mixed reactions to the report with JP Morgan lowering its price target ($33 from $36), while Citi and BoA raised their price targets ($27 from $25) and ($29 from $27).

Option trading in GAP currently stands at 29,481 contracts, 8x the average daily volume with calls and puts basically even. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

• June 18th, 2026, 27.00 call accounted for 5,048 contracts; open interest is 703 contracts.
• June 18th, 2026, 30.00 call accounted for 5,025 contracts; open interest is 928 contracts.
• April 17th, 2026, 23.00 put accounted for 2,026 contracts; open interest is 188 contracts.

New 52-week lows (117 new lows today): Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL - $0.45 to $9.97), ADT Inc. (ADT - $0.17 to $6.57), Rumble Inc. (RUM - $0.87 to $4.74), Evgo Inc. (EVGO - $0.05 to $5.00)

There is unusual put activity today in Avantor Inc. (AVTR - $0.37 to $8.15). This activity equates to over 94,774 put contracts, 1690x average daily put volume. A large put calendar trade between the March 20th and May 15th, 2026, expiration months is responsible for nearly all the volume. Traders appear to be rolling a massive 47,344 contract long put position in the March expiration at the 8.00 strike to the 7.00 strike in May. Basically, they are extending their long put positions for an additional two months, but moving down a strike, potentially anticipating additional downside for the shares (suggesting bearish intent). Traders paid $0.13 per contract (excluding commissions) for the roll. Shares of AVTR set a 52-week low of $8.14 earlier this morning and are down 30% year-to-date.

Unusual activity has also been detected in Plains Group Holdings (PAGP + $0.13 to $23.83), as put volume stands at 4,524 contracts, 7x average volume and 10x call volume, in morning trading. Most of the volume is in the March 20th, 2026, expiration, as traders are active at the 24.00 put strike. Over 3,107 contracts have traded today, mostly on the sell side. These appear to be opening trades, given the open interest of 1 contract (suggesting neutral to bullish sentiment). Shares of PAGP set a new 52-week high price of $24.00 in morning trading, so traders may be betting on continued upside.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX + 2.10 to 25.85) is higher by 8.90%, as equity markets are lower in early morning trading (DJI - 553, SPX - 76, COMPX - 221). VIX movement has occurred within a wide range today (the intraday range is 22.92 to 28.57). The highest volume contract is currently March 18th, 2026, 20.00 put (volume is 53,814 vs. open interest of 257,070).