Today's Options Market Update

Stocks Stabilize Following Lower Open on Iran Attack

March 2, 2026 Nathan Peterson

Stocks have mostly moved above the unchanged line around midday as markets attempt to assess the ramifications of the U.S. attack on Iran. The VIX remains above 20.00 and oil prices are up 5%.

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Crude oil and volatility surged this morning and major indexes fell about 1% after war erupted in the Middle East. In cooperation with Israeli forces, the U.S. began an attack on Iran Saturday that resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and other casualties. The violence has investors scurrying for perceived "safety," though no investment is truly safe. This shift could lead to near-term strength in "defensive" sectors like staples, small caps, and utilities with less exposure to geopolitical currents. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield briefly fell below 3.94% over the weekend for the first time since October 2024 as investors flocked to where they saw lower risk.

The war could hurt airline, shipping, and delivery firms that might face disruptions and higher costs, and give defense contractors and energy companies a lift. Risk-sensitive assets like cryptocurrencies could also see pressure. Though turbulence could continue depending on how long the conflict lasts and its effect on oil shipping, investors should keep in mind that geopolitical conflict often has a short-lived impact on markets, which, so far, are holding together relatively well, without signs of panic. While the initial move is relatively contained overall, "second order" effects on the economy will matter, too. Higher energy prices can tighten financial conditions, which could pressure consumer spending, not to mention margin issues in energy-intensive sectors. There could also be a quick upward adjustment in inflation expectations and a resulting adjustment to expectations around the Federal Reserve's rate path.

On Friday, before violence flared, major indexes wrapped up a tough February that featured slight descents for both the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq-100® (NDX). Defensive areas including health care, staples, and utilities rose, with eight of 11 sectors ending the day higher. Financials and tech were well in the red, keeping the S&P 500 down but above technical support near the 100-day moving average of 6,830. South of that is the 6,750-6,775 area, which was tested several times in recent months. A break below this level could trigger short selling activity.

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research

Morning Rush

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is higher by ~7 basis points to 4.038%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is higher by 0.88 to 98.49.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is higher by 6.61% to $71.55/barrel.

Gold prices have traded in a range of $5,315.30-5,434.10 and were last seen trading higher by ~1.90% to $5,347.60/oz.

Natural Gas prices for March futures have traded in a range of $2.867-3.07 today and were last seen trading higher by 3.39% to $2.956.

Bitcoin (BTC) is higher by ~4.45% over the last 24 hours to $68,681.56 today.

Today's Bullish Activity

Shares of AAON Inc. (AAON + $5.32 to $106.52) are moving higher this morning after the maker of air conditioning and heating equipment reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.39 ($0.06 miss) on revenue that increased 42% year-over-year to $424.2M (above the $372.4M expected). Concurrent with the earnings release, the company announced a $100M share-repurchase program. Looking ahead, the company guided full-year 2026 (FY26) revenue is expected to come in a range of $1.702-1.73B versus the $1.562B consensus estimate. Option volume is relatively light with the March 20^th 95.00 call being the highest volume contract (volume is 35).

Also trading to the upside this morning is CrowdStrike Inc. (CRWD + $9.42 to $381.40) after Piper Sandler upgraded the cybersecurity firm to “Overweight” from “Neutral” while maintaining their $520.00 price target on the stock. Analysts at Piper Sandler believe the 18% year-to-date drop in the stock, driven by AI-related concerns, is overdone in what the firm calls a best-in-class security platform. Calls are outnumbering puts ~3:2 with the March 20^th 385.00 call being the highest volume contract (volume is 1,097).

New 52-week highs (165 new highs today): Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI + $10.50 to $94.73), Chevron Corp. (CVX + $1.75 to $188.51), Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT + $15.08 to $673.16)

Notable Call Activity

Some unusual call activity (~13:1 calls over puts) is being seen in Energy Transfer L.P. (ET + $0.26 to $19.11) as option traders primarily target the March 6^th 19.50 call. Volume on this contract is 7,065 versus open interest of 725, so we know that the volume primarily represents fresh positioning. The bulk of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were bought at various times at the ask prices of $0.07 & $0.08 each, which suggests bullish intent.

Today's Bearish Activity

Shares of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH - $3.01 to $21.78) are moving lower this morning after the cruise line operator reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.28 ($0.02 beat) on Q4 revenue of $2.244B (below the $2.347B expected). Regarding guidance, the company said that Q1 adjusted EPS is expected to be about $0.16 ($0.02 above the $0.14 expected) and FY26 adjusted EPS to be approximately $2.38 (below the $2.57 FactSet consensus estimate). Calls and puts are trading roughly even with the March 6^th 24.00 call seeing the most action from traders (volume is 7,750).

Also trading to the downside today is AZZ Inc. (AZZ - $2.42 to $133.56) after Wells Fargo downgraded the provider of hot-dip galvanizing and coil coating solutions to “Equal Weight” from “Overweight” while bumping their price target on the stock to $132.00 from $127.00. Wella Fargo analyst said the downgrade reflects the company’s lackluster 2027 guidance, which implies muted margin growth, and increased paint competition from North America steel mills. Option volume is tepid at the time of this writing with the April 17^th 130.00 call being the only contract with any volume (volume is 1).

New 52-week lows (144 new lows today): Group 1 Automotive Inc. (GPI - $4.39 to $320.80), MGP Ingredients Inc. (MGPI - $0.23 to $18.77), Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO - $0.47 to $36.98)

Notable Put Activity

Some unusual put activity (~9:1 puts over calls) is being seen in Bloomin’ Brands Inc. (BLMN - $0.06 to $6.06) as option traders primarily target the July 17^th 5.00 put. Volume on this contract is 2,742 versus open interest of 992, so we know that the volume primarily represents fresh positioning. The bulk of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were bought around the same time at the ask price of $0.50 each, which suggests bearish intent.

Volume Signals

Celcuity Inc. (CELC - $1.29 to $110.42): Option volume is running at ~46x the daily average on this biotech firm which is primarily being driven by a couple of large blocks that simultaneously traded on the May 15^th expiration earlier this morning:

110.00 call (open interest is 16): A 1,000 contract block was bought for $18.51 when the bid/ask spread was $16.00 x $19.00.
140.00 call (open interest is 0): A 1,500 contract block was sold for $6.76 when the bid/ask spread was $6.40 x $8.60.

We know that these blocks are new positions based on the respective open interest figures, and it appears that a $30.00-wide (1:1.5 ratio) bull call spread was established for a net debit of $8.37 (x 1,000 contracts x 100 multiplier, excluding commissions). The positioning suggests that the block trader believes that CELC will close above the break-even price of $118.37 at expiration.

Leonardo DRS Inc. (DRS + $2.07 to $45.46): Option volume is running at ~13x the daily average on this provider of defense electronics products and systems as option traders primarily target the March 20^th 50.00 call. Volume on this contract is 1,880 versus open interest of 126, so we know that the volume primarily represents fresh positioning. The bulk of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were bought at various times for between $0.65-1.05 each, which suggests bullish intent.

Venture Global Inc. (VG + $1.61 to $11.30): Option volume is running at ~11x the daily average on this developer of natural gas liquefaction and export projects as option traders primarily target the March 6^th 12.00 call. Volume on this contract is 2,725 versus open interest of 690, so we know that the volume primarily represents fresh positioning. The bulk of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were bought at various times for between $0.30-0.40 each, which suggests bullish intent. Shares of VG are trading ~16% this morning after reporting upbeat earnings.

Gauging Volatility

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX + 0.94 to 20.80) has been in positive territory all day today (the intraday range is 20.75-25.24), as equity markets are higher across the board around the midday mark (DJI + 2, SPX + 6, $COMP + 108). VIX option volume is above average today at 579,186 contracts, and calls are outnumbering puts better than 2:1 so far today.

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