Today's Options Market Update

Tech Losses Mount on AI Valuation, Rate Concerns

November 14, 2025 Joe Mazzola

After the worst day in a month, stocks fell again on concerns about AI valuations and diminished hopes of a rate cut. Fed speakers loom, with retail and Nvidia earnings next week.

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Tech shares cratered again early Friday after major indexes suffered their worst day in more than a month amid fresh concerns over missing government data, sliding chances of a rate cut, and tech valuations. Magnificent Seven stocks fell across the board ahead of the open, including 4% for Tesla (TSLA) and 3% for Nvidia (NVDA), while volatility kept climbing and Treasury yields lost ground. Wall Street appears on pace for its second straight losing week barring a last-minute "buy the dip" effort.

"The market continues to aggressively move toward pricing out a December Fed rate cut," said Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy, Schwab Center for Financial Research. Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack said Thursday she's worried about the labor market, but getting inflation back to 2% is critical. And Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he's undecided about the December vote. Three more Fed speakers line up today, including Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, whose remarks might have extra weight since he dissented in the last rate cut vote.

Chances of a rate cut in December now look like a coin flip after starting the week near 66%. Still, odds of a cut in January are now above 70%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. This suggests the Fed pausing for a month until it has more clarity. That said, officials warn that some of October's employment and inflation reports may not get fully reported, and inflation data that has surfaced—including higher prices paid in the October ISM Services report—may be damaging rate cut hopes. All this is driving a "risk-off" move across the markets, including in cryptocurrencies.

Morning Rush

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is higher by 3 bps 4.14%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is up 0.18% at 99.34.

The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) is up 0.25% to 20.05.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is higher by 2.50% to $60.17/barrel.

Bitcoin (BTC) is down by 2.25%, trading at $95,980.

Ethereum (ETH) is up by 0.38% today to $3,179.

Today's Bullish Activity

Shares of Micron Technology Inc. (MU + $14.14 to $251.09) are up over 6.50% after Morgan Stanley raised its price target for Micron's stock to $325 and named it a top pick due to industrywide shortages for DRAM which is driving prices higher, around 15-20% in the first half of next year. These shortages could power Micron's earnings estimates higher. Per Bloomberg, the Morgan Stanley team sees Micron's earnings power increasing as the gap between spot and contract pricing grows, with potential for earnings power north of $10 a share.

This has led the Morgan Stanley team to offer a bull case for Micron's stock to reach $420 a share, with the base-case target of $325 being about 33% above current prices, driven by demand growth that's dramatically higher than supply. Shares of MU have already rallied over 180% year-to-date.

Option trading in MU currently stands at 244,881 contracts, 4x the average daily volume with calls outpacing put 2:1. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

November 14th, 2025, 250.00 call accounted for 16,539 contracts; open interest is 5,229 contracts.
November 14th, 2025, 260.00 call accounted for 10,883 contracts; open interest is 3,389 contracts.
November 14th, 2025, 260.00 call accounted for 10,841 contracts; open interest is 3,054 contracts.

New 52-week highs (73 new highs today): Cidara Therapeutics (CDTX + $111.80 to $217.79), Avadel Pharmaceuticals (AVDL + $3.99 to $23.23), Kura Oncology (KURA + $1.68 to $12.36)

Notable Call Activity

Unusual call activity is noted today in Encore Energy Corp. (EU + $0.13 to $2.69), as call volume currently stands at 31,579 contracts, 70x the average daily volume and 400x the put volume. Activity is greatest in the December 19th, 2025, expiration month, where call buying is prevalent at the 3.00 and 4.00 strikes. Over 28,000 contracts have traded collectively between the 3.00 and 4.00 strike calls with most of the activity on the buy side, including a large block purchase of 6,000 of the 4.00 strike calls for $0.15 when the bid/ask was $0.10 x $0.15. With the open interest at 469 contracts, we know this represents new positioning (suggesting bullish intent).

Another name exhibiting unusual activity today is Cypherpunk Technologies (CYPH + $1.30 to $3.06), as call volume has spiked to 16,643 contracts in morning trading. Most of the volume can be attributed to the November, 21st, 2025, expiration, where the 2.00, 3.00, and 4.00 strikes have traded a collective 10,000 contracts between them. Most of the action has been on the buy side, with over 40% of the contracts trading at the ask. Shares of CYPH are up over 500% in the past two trading days, following the company's latest earnings report.

Today's Bearish Activity

Shares of Red Cat Holdings Inc. (RCAT - $0.46 to $7.28) are down over 5.60% after the drone company's FY25 revenue forecast missed the average analyst estimate. The earnings report was mixed overall, as Q3 quarterly revenue grew a staggering 646% YoY and 200% over the prior quarter to $9.6 million, beating consensus expectations. The 2025 annual revenue guidance was updated to between $34.5 - $37.5 million, with Q4 revenue expected to between $20 -$23 million.

The company also provided an update on one of its military contracts, the U.S. Army's SRR UAS Tranche 2 (T2) Program which is now valued at approximately $35 million, per Bloomberg. Shares could be under pressure due to valuation concerns, as the company currently holds a 863M Market Cap, nearly 30x its 2025 revenue guidance.

Option trading in RCAT currently stands at 27,721 contracts in morning trading, on pace for 3x the daily average, with calls outpacing puts by 2:1. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

January 16th, 2026, 12.00 call accounted for 1,120 contracts; open interest is 7,585 contracts.
January 16th, 2026, 10.00 call accounted for 948 contracts; open interest is 8,974 contracts.
November 14th, 2025, 7.00 put accounted for 989 contracts; open interest is 820 contracts.

New 52-week lows (216 new lows today): Applied Therapeutics Inc. (APLT - $0.02 to $0.25), DeFi Technologies Inc. (DEFT - $0.16 to $1.29), JD.com Inc. (JD - $0.70 to $30.01)

Notable Put Activity

There is unusual put activity today in Vnet Group Inc. (VNET + $0.05 to $8.82). This activity equates to over 7,156 put contracts, 13x average daily put volume. Nearly all the volume can be attributed to multiple block trades in the March 20th, 2026, expiration, specifically at the 9.00 strike. Over 7,000 puts have been sold with prices ranging from $1.70 to $1.80, primarily on the bid. We know this represents new positioning, given the open interest of 216 contracts (suggesting neutral to bullish intent). Shares of VNET have fallen about 25% in the past two weeks.

Unusual activity has also been detected in the Proshares Ultra Bloom Crude ETF (UCO + $0.81 to $21.14), as put volume stands at 4,155 contracts in morning trading, 5x average daily volume. Traders have sold over 4,000 of the November 21st, 2025, expiration 20.50 strike puts through multiple block trades. The credit received for the sale was $0.25 when the bid/ask was $0.25 x $0.30. We know this represents new positioning based on the open interest of 157 contracts (suggesting neutral to bullish intent). Shares of UCO are down over 33% from their 52-week high price of $31.64, set last January.

Gauging Volatility

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX + 0.05 to 20.05) is up 0.25% in morning trading, as equity markets are mixed across the board (DJI - 152, SPX + 21, COMPX + 116). VIX movement has occurred within a wider range today (the intraday range is 19.56 – 23.03). The highest volume contract is currently the December 17th, 18.00 put (volume is 48,904 vs. open interest of 152,463).

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