Today's Options Market Update

Stocks Trying to Hold Gains on Rate Hopes Following Yesterday's Reversal

November 21, 2025 Joe Mazzola

Thursday's dramatic turnaround from an early Nvidia-fueled rally took stocks to two-month lows, but surging rate-cut hopes today awoke the market. Consumer sentiment data is ahead.

#--bcn-image--5773{display: none !important;}

After yesterday's ugly reversal, a percentage swing we haven't seen since the April 8th low, spoiled a tech rally fueled by Nvidia's (NVDA) solid results, investors return licking their wounds with crypto lower again but major indexes rising on renewed rate-cut hopes. Consumer sentiment is due after the open but other data and earnings are scarce, putting focus squarely on whether significant dip-buying emerges at current two-month lows. Several Magnificent Seven names edged higher in pre-market trading, but this week is still on pace to be the worst since April.

Cryptocurrencies and tech capsized yesterday as traders fled from risk amid falling rate cut odds, but optimism around a December rate cut surged this morning when New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), said he sees room for further policy easing. Chances of a cut soared to 71% from 39%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, and Treasury yields fell.

It's hard to poke holes in Nvidia's results or guidance, but investors increasingly see its fundamentals as divorced from those of "hyperscalers" taking on debt to buy Nvidia's chips. "Demand for Nvidia chips was not the problem—it was and is about over-investment in AI infrastructure and debt issuance," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). Lack of AI enthusiasm and fluttering crypto aren't the entire story behind yesterday's dramatic losses. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW)—which weighs all components equally—also fell sharply Thursday, indicating broader weakness beyond tech.

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research

Morning Rush

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is lower by 3 bps 4.07%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is up 0.10% at 100.25.

The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) is down 5.68% to 24.92.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is lower by 2.00% to $57.80/barrel.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues its descent down by 2.30%, trading at $84,440.

Ethereum (ETH) is down by 2.28% today to $2,768.

Today's Bullish Activity

Shares of Ross Stores Inc. (ROST + $12.08 to $172.58) are up over 7.00% in morning trading, after the discount retailer posted a strong Q3 earnings beat and raised its forecast for the full year. Ross Stores reported earnings of $1.58 per share, handily beating consensus estimates of $1.42 per share, with same-store sales growth of 7%, much higher analyst expectations of 4.5%. Going forward, the company raised its earnings outlook for 2025 to $6.38-$6.46 per share, from their prior projection of $6.08-$6.21 per share.

Analysts appear to favor the report with Barclays and Berstein both raising their price targets to $183 and $159, respectively.

Option trading in ROST currently stands at 14,380 contracts, 3x the average daily volume with calls outpacing puts 3:1. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

November 28th, 2025, 180.00 call accounted for 2,852 contracts; open interest is 847 contracts.
November 21st, 2025, 175.00 call accounted for 1,571 contracts; open interest is 1,091 contracts.
November 21st, 2025, 165.00 call accounted for 1,361 contracts; open interest is 4,664 contracts.

New 52-week highs (78 new highs today): Enviri Corp. (NVRI + $3.74 to $17.31), TJX Companies (TJX + $3.50 to $151.57), Ross Stores Inc. (ROST + $12.08 to $172.58), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ + $3.59 to $206.66)

Notable Call Activity

Unusual call activity is noted today in Cullinan Therapeutics (CGEM + $0.45 to $9.17), as call volume currently stands at 10,594 contracts, 90x the average daily volume and 70x the put volume. Activity is greatest in the December 19th, 2025, expiration month, due to the purchase of a large 5,000 call vertical spread (10,000 contracts total). Traders paid $1.20 for the December 19th 9.00/15.00 call vertical through a single block order. The collective open interest at the two strike totaled 322 contracts, so we know this represents new positioning (suggesting bullish intent). Shares of CGEM are up over 60% since hitting a 52-week-low price of $5.68 back in early October. Traders may believe the rally has room to run.

Another name exhibiting unusual activity today is the iShares US Home Construction (ITB + $4.07 to $97.85), as call volume has spiked to 5,108 contracts in morning trading, 25x the average volume. Nearly all the volume can be attributed to a large call vertical spread in the December 19th, 2025, expiration month where 2,000 spreads were purchased (4,000 contracts total) through two block trades. Traders paid $1.35 for the December 19th 102.00/110.00 call vertical spread when the bid/ask spread was $0.10 x $1.55. There was only a collective 213 contracts of open interest between the two strikes, so we know this spread represents new positioning (suggesting bullish intent). Shares of ITB are up over 4.00% today, trying to turnaround what had been an 18% pullback since early September.

Today's Bearish Activity

Shares of Oracle Corp. (ORCL - $12.96 to $197.73) are down another 6% today, the worst performer in the S&P 500, and on pace for their worst month since August 2021. Last September, shares hit a high price of $345.72 after Oracle reported it had a backlog of $455 billion in contracted revenue, driven primarily by a $300 billion deal with OpenAI. Oracle also announced it was raising billions in debt to fund multiple data center buildouts, leading to investor concerns around margins, financing costs, and the overall potential for an AI bubble.

Bloomberg is reporting that the price to protect against the company defaulting on its debt for five years has tripled in recent months to as high as 1.11 percentage points a year, or around $111,000 for every $10 million of principal protected. Traders have piled into the company's credit-default swaps as a way to hedge the AI boom, with trading volume on the company's CDS ballooning to about $5 billion over seven weeks.

Option trading in ORCL currently stands at 483,381 contracts in morning trading, on pace for 3x the daily average, with calls and puts basically even. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

November 28th, 2025, 200.00 put accounted for 27,204 contracts; open interest is 24,752 contracts.
November 21st, 2025, 200.00 call accounted for 21,777 contracts; open interest is 1,572 contracts.
November 21st, 2025 200.00 put accounted for 16,887 contracts; open interest is 8,103 contracts.

New 52-week lows (189 new lows today): Strategy Inc. (MSTR - $1.33 to $175.80), Bath & Body Works Inc. (BBWI - $0.47 to $15.15), Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS - $0.12 to $1.19), Copart Inc. (LI - $0.91 to $40.11)

Notable Put Activity

There is unusual put activity today in Williams Cos Inc. (WMB + $0.11 to $59.02). This activity equates to over 14,940 put contracts, 45x average daily put volume and 30x today's call volume. Most of the volume can be attributed to the January 2nd, 2026, expiration, specifically at the 54.00 strike. Two large block trades, totaling 11,625 contracts, were sold at an average price of $0.53 when the bid/ask spread was $0.25 x $1.10, under the midpoint. We know this represents new positioning, given there was zero open interest (suggesting neutral to bullish intent). Shares of WMB are sitting right at their 200-day SMA and have been trending higher following an earnings beat back on November 3rd.

Unusual activity has also been detected in Confluent Inc. (CFLT - $0.78 to $20.74), as put volume stands at 13,750 contracts in morning trading, 57x average daily volume and 3x the call volume. Nearly half the volume come from the December 19th, 2025, expiration month, specifically at the 19.00 strike where over 6,624 contracts have already traded. Most of the action has been on the sell side with prices ranging from $0.75 to $0.85. These trades represent new positioning, based on the open interest of six contracts (suggesting neutral to bullish intent). Shares of CFLT may be approaching oversold levels based upon today's RSI reading of 35.00.

Gauging Volatility

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX - 1.50 to 24.92) is down this morning by 5.68%, as equity markets are higher across the board (DJI + 438, SPX + 48, COMPX + 116). VIX movement has occurred within a wider range today (the intraday range is 24.82 – 27.84). The highest volume contract is currently the December 17th, 2025 put (volume is 28,385 vs. open interest of 233,577).

Investors should consider carefully information contained in the prospectus, or if available, the summary prospectus, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. You can request a prospectus by calling 800-435-4000. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

Options carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Certain requirements must be met to trade options through Schwab. Please read the Options Disclosure Document titled "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options." before considering any option transaction. Call Schwab at 1-800-435-4000 for a current copy. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.

Futures and futures options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Please read the Risk Disclosure Statement for Futures and Options prior to trading futures products.

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

All references to subjects (securities, indexes, futures contracts, and options contracts) were derived based on screens conducted by the writer for certain anomalous activity such as volumes, volatility and other related market data. As needed for brevity, the writer may have applied discretion when choosing among screen outputs for inclusion. Such discretion may have been based on news reports or other considerations of public interest. The views or opinions are those of the writer, and are subject to change without notice. All referenced subjects were chosen for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered recommendations, offers to sell, or solicitations of offers to purchase.

All corporate names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This information provided here is for general informational purposes only, and is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax, legal, or investment planning advice. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, you should consult with a qualified tax advisor, CPA, Financial Planner, or Investment Manager.

Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.

The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

1125-DJ6D