Today's Options Market Update

Wall Street's initial response to weekend events in Venezuela was a collective shrug early Monday. Major indexes tracked mostly higher overnight and crude oil initially slipped before climbing but remains near recent one-year lows. The U.S. dollar rose and Treasury yields flattened.

Over the weekend, President Trump announced that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was captured during a large-scale U.S. strike that began on January 2, and Maduro and his wife were transported to New York. Maduro faces drug trafficking and narco-terrorism charges, with Trump saying the United States would run the country--at least temporarily--and take control of Venezuela's oil reserves.

"The intervention of the U.S. into Venezuela is a more significant geopolitical event than a market event," Schwab experts said. "While the situation in Venezuela remains in flux and will undoubtedly continue to shift moving forward, global markets have thus far taken the news in stride. From here, much will depend on the degree of the U.S. involvement in Venezuela's future path, how larger oil producers outside of both countries will respond, and whether the energy market has a tantrum."

So far, there's no "tantrum" in sight, and the fundamental effect on crude oil could take a long time to play out. Venezuela has large reserves but isn't a big producer, accounting for about 1% of the world's daily oil output at less than one million barrels a day. That's down from three million several decades ago. Venezuela is an OPEC member, and the cartel agreed Sunday to keep current production levels, as analysts had expected before the attack on Venezuela.

Several major energy stocks were early beneficiaries of the news, with Chevron (CVX) up 6% Monday and ConocoPhillips (COP) up 5%. Chevron is the only large U.S. oil company that kept operations in Venezuela over the last decade.

All told, the weekend events aren't necessarily risk-free for investors. Markets might go into "risk-off" mode if the U.S. government considers similar actions against other regimes, and there's history to consider, too. The U.S. has struggled with regime change in the past, as seen with Iraq. However, Trump has criticized the 2003 Iraq invasion, giving investors hope that he'd avoid any sort of long-term U.S. effort to control Venezuela.

As trading continues today and markets absorb the news, remember that it's important not to overreact to geopolitical events—which are always part of investing and typically don't have a long-lasting impact on markets.

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is lower by ~1 basis points to 4.169%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is higher by 0.115 to 98.539.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is higher by 0.44% to $57.57/barrel.

Gold prices have traded in a range of $4,354.60-$4,466.40 and were last seen trading higher by ~3.10% to $4,464.00/oz.

Natural Gas prices have traded in a range of $3.355-3.508 today and were last seen trading lower by 5.53% to $3.418.

Bitcoin (BTC) is higher by ~2.04% to $93,408.13 today.

Shares of United Rentals Inc. (URI + $46.17 to $891.23) are moving higher this morning after UBS upgraded the equipment rental company to “Buy” from “Neutral” while maintaining their $1,025 price target on the stock. Analysts at UBS believe a rebound in U.S. non-residential construction activity in the second half of 2025 will drive an acceleration in the company’s EBITDA growth. Calls are outpacing puts ~4:1 with the February 20^th 910.00 call being the highest volume contract (volume is 202).

Also trading to the upside this morning is Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN + $18.27 to $254.80) after Goldman Sachs upgraded the cryptocurrency exchange to “Buy” from “Neutral” and bumped their price target on the stock to $304.00 from $294.00. Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro cited optimism over the company’s shift from a cyclical trading platform to a more structural growth story, driven by offerings such as custody, stablecoins, staking and prime brokerage services. Calls are outnumbering puts better than 2:1 with the January 16^th 280.00 call leading the way (volume is 9,248).

New 52-week highs (153 new highs today): Alcoa Corp. (AA + $2.69 to $59.23), Bank of America Corp. (BAC + $1.46 to $57.41), GE Aerospace Inc. (GE + $5.32 to $326.07)

Some unusual call activity (~10:1 calls over puts) is being seen in Enovix Corp. (ENVX + $0.55 to $8.43) as option traders primarily target the January 9^th 9.00 call. Volume on this contract is 13,059 versus open interest of 538, so it’s likely that nearly all the volume represents fresh positioning. The bulk of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were bought at various times for between $0.18-0.28 each, which suggests bullish intent.

Shares of Domino’s Pizza Inc. (DPZ - $14.64 to $410.65) are moving lower this morning after TD Cowen downgraded the pizza delivery chain to “Hold” from “Buy” and lowered their price target on the stock to $460.00 from $500.00. Analysts at TD Cowen cited concerns about the U.S. pizza delivery market and the company’s ability to achieve its long-term goal of over 3% U.S. same-store sales growth. Puts are outnumbering calls ~4:1 with the February 20^th 380.00 put seeing the most action from traders (volume is 969).

Also trading to the downside today is AutoZone Inc. (AZO - $46.14 to $3,257.68) after Mizuho downgraded the auto parts retailer to “Neutral” from “Overweight” and cut their price target on the stock to $3,550.00 from $3,850.00, citing concerns around overly optimistic Q1 consensus estimates. Puts are outnumbering calls nearly 2:1 with the January 16^th 3250.00 put being the highest volume contract (volume is 156).

New 52-week lows (22 new lows today): Campbell’s Company (CPB - $0.66 to $27.05), General Mills Inc. (GIS - $0.81 to $44.91), Net Lease Properties Inc. (NLOP - $0.56 to $20.27)

Some unusual put activity (~50:1 puts over calls) is being seen in Bank OZK Inc. (OZK + $0.50 to $47.54) which is primarily being driven by a couple of large blocks that simultaneously traded on the February 20^th expiration earlier this morning:

• 45.00 put (open interest is 379): A 2,250 contract block was bought for $1.40 when the bid/ask spread was $1.15 x $1.45.
• 40.00 put (open interest is 371): A 2,250 contract block was sold for $0.54 when the bid/ask spread was $0.35 x $0.95.

We know that these blocks are new positions based on the respective open interest figures, and it appears that a $5.00-wide bear put spread was established for a net debit of $0.86 (x 2,250 contracts x 100 multiplier, excluding commissions). The positioning suggests that the block trader believes that OZK will close below the break-even price of $44.14 at expiration.

Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc. (BBW + $3.48 to $64.48): Option volume is running at ~87x the daily average on this plush animal retailer which is primarily being driven by a couple of large blocks that simultaneously traded on the June 2026 expiration earlier this morning:

• 50.00 put (open interest is 13): A 2,100 contract block was bought for $3.67 when the bid/ask spread was $3.10 x $3.90.
• 40.00 put (open interest is 251): A 2,100 contract block was sold for $1.43 when the bid/ask spread was $1.25 x $2.00.

We know that these blocks are new positions based on the respective open interest figures, and it appears that a $10.00-wide bear put spread was established for a net debit of $2.24 (x 2,100 contracts x 100 multiplier, excluding commissions). The positioning suggests that the block trader believes that BBW will close below the break-even price of $47.76 at expiration.

Calumet Inc. (CLMT + $0.61 to $20.16): Option volume is running at ~20x the daily average on this diversified energy company as option traders primarily target the May 15^th 27.00 call. Volume on this contract is 4,149 versus open interest of 80, so we know that the volume primarily represents new positioning. The majority of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were bought around the same time at the ask price of $0.50 each, which suggests bullish intent.

Arbor Realty Trust Inc. (ABR + $0.13 to $8.09): Option volume is running at ~20x the daily average on this mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) as option traders primarily target the January 9^th 8.50 call. Volume on this contract is 15,745 versus open interest of 448, so we know that the volume primarily represents new positioning. The majority of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were bought at various times for between $0.07-0.09 each, which suggests bullish intent. 

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX + 0.04 to 14.24) has been in positive territory all day today (the intraday range is 14.65-15.14), as equity markets are modestly higher across the board around the midday mark (DJI + 747, SPX + 57, $COMP + 203). VIX option volume is average today at 328,926 contracts, and calls are outpacing puts ~3:1 so far today.