Is It Time to Reassess Your Risk Tolerance?

Market shocks are an inevitable part of investing—but that doesn't make them any easier to stomach. Whether you're just starting out or you've been saving for decades, watching the value of your hard-earned gains drop overnight can cause you to question the entire enterprise.

"When the market is going up and up, it's easy for investors to think they're more comfortable with risk than they actually are," says Mark Riepe, head of the Schwab Center for Financial Research. "But whenever the S&P 500^® Index drops into bear-market territory, people may be forced to confront their true risk tolerance."

So, how do you go about reassessing your tolerance for risk, come what may? Ask yourself these three questions.

Investing is an act of faith—to say nothing of willpower. The assets that offer the highest potential reward are often the riskiest, but if you can steel yourself against occasional surges in volatility, you're more likely to reach your long-term goals.

The question is, how much risk can you really handle? To help answer that question, consider the downsides and upsides of five hypothetical portfolios:

Although portfolios with larger allocations to stocks have delivered higher returns over time, they have also been more volatile—which may not work for everyone. If you need the money in the next few years, for example, you should choose a more stable investment mix. The same is true if you simply can't bear to see your portfolio plummet in value. "It's perfectly reasonable to say, 'I'm willing to accept lower returns in exchange for more stability,'" Mark says. "But depending on your objective, that may mean you may have to save more—or ratchet back your expectations—to compensate."

Indeed, reducing your exposure to stocks and other relatively higher-risk, potentially higher-reward assets during your peak earning years comes with its own kind of risk: falling short of your goal. "Market turbulence feels risky because it's something you have to face again and again," Mark says. "But if you have long-term goals, the more pernicious risk comes from undercutting your long-term returns because there's often no coming back from that."

To help manage your emotional response to market volatility, consider cutting back on how often you review the performance of your long-term accounts. In fact, research suggests that the less often people check their investments, the more risk they may be willing to take—and the better their returns are likely to be over time.

Additional research also found that receiving price information less frequently led to professional traders (in a highly realistic experimental setting) investing 33% more in risky assets, which resulted in 53% higher profits than traders who relied on constant updates.¹ 

"You can't wish your emotions away," Mark says, "but you can take steps to keep them in check." That said, there may be reasons to review your portfolio more often. "You should check in on your investments and your broader financial plan anytime your situation changes substantially."

While many people think about risk in terms of their ability to endure losses emotionally, there's another component to risk that's equally important: your capacity to recover financially.

"Time is a big factor here," Mark says. "When you've got a decade or more until you need to tap your savings, short-term volatility isn't a big risk. But if you'll need the money in, say, five or fewer years, a market downturn can be devastating."

Be that as it may, your financial capacity for risk may not square with your emotional tolerance for it. An investor in their 40s, for example, probably has 20 or more years until retirement, which should allow them to invest aggressively. But some people simply can't tolerate the ups and downs of holding that much stock, regardless of their age or time frame.

Conversely, even aggressive investors can be waylaid by adverse life events like losing a job. "If you need to tap your long-term savings to help make ends meet, your capacity for risk can shrink overnight," Mark says. "In such situations, downshifting your risk exposure to help preserve capital could absolutely be the right approach."

Of course, in a perfect world your financial plan would have a built-in cushion for such emergencies. "With an emergency fund in place, you're less likely to need to tap your long-term investments to cover short-term expenses," Mark says. 

Non-retirees should maintain at least three (and ideally six) months' worth of essential expenses in a highly liquid account. However, if you're nearing or in retirement, your emergency fund should be large enough to cover at least a year's worth of money that you may need from your savings, with another two to four years' worth saved in relatively liquid investments. "Keeping that much cash or short-term investments on hand will help you avoid having to sell assets during a downturn," Mark says.

"Knowing yourself is the beginning of all wisdom," wrote Aristotle. Unfortunately, human beings are notoriously bad at predicting in advance how they'll actually respond to a given set of conditions.

That's why Mark recommends asking someone close to you to rate your risk tolerance. "You might think you're comfortable with risk, but your spouse or a close friend may be able to identify patterns of behavior—such as your tendency to play it safe in other areas of your life—that you're unable to recognize in yourself."

Financial advisors are ideally suited to this role because their experience with a broad range of clients can lend some perspective on where you fall along the spectrum of risk tolerance. As they get to know you, they can remind you how you felt, or reacted, in prior down markets and may also be able to help you identify whether you're acting with your head—or your heart. "An advisor can help curtail the emotional responses that might otherwise get the best of you," Mark says.

In the end, figuring out how much risk you can really handle is an art as much as it is a science. "Sure, we can give you guidelines based on your age or time frame, but it ultimately comes down to how much you can stand to lose—both emotionally and financially," Mark says. "Once you know that, you can put together a plan that balances your long-term need for growth with your near-term need to sleep at night."