Looking to the Futures

The 10-year treasury yield (TNX:CGI) dipped to around 4.11% on Tuesday. This is likely because the market took Powells comments as signs of further Fed easing. The CME's Fedwatch tool current prices in a 94.1% chance of lowering rates to 3.75-4.00 basis points at the next FOMC meeting on October 29, 2025. 

Jerome Powell spoke on September 23, 2025, at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce in Luncheon, Warwick, Rhode Island delivering remarks on the "Economic Outlook" for the United States. Last week, the Fed announced an interest rate cut of twenty-five basis points and set the target range to 4.00-4.25 basis points. 

The key takeaways from Tuesday's speech are that it is becoming apparent that economic growth has slowed. GDP rose at a pace of around one and a half percent in the first half of the year, compared to 2.5 percent growth in 2025. There has been a notable decrease in consumer spending, the housing sector remains weak, and business investment in equipment has picked up from last year's pace. 

The labor market has shown job openings and demand for workers has slowed, which Powell noted as an unusual and challenging development. Unemployment came in at 4.3 percent in August and although this was a slight increase unemployment has remained stable over the past year. The problem seems to arise when we look to the "breakeven" rate needed to hold unemployment at a constant rate. Recent Job gains have averaged only 29,000 per month – below what is needed to hold a steady unemployment rate. 

Inflation data came down from its peak in 2022, however remains elevated. Powell cited personal consumption expenditures or PCE inflation rose 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending in August, up from 2.3 percent in August 2024. 

The S&P 500 futures (/ESZ25) pulled back slightly as a reaction to the speech. The futures were trading at about 6726 points just before Powell spoke and pulled back to a low of around 6715 and quickly rebounded to the previous level. 

Gold futures (/GCZ25) have also pulled back since hitting an all-time high Tuesday morning of 3824.6, currently trading at 3784 this Wednesday morning at about 11:30 AM EST. 

All eyes will be on the economic data that is set to release tomorrow at 8:30 AM EST. Potential market movers consist of Durable Goods Orders, which will measure the value of new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for long-lasting goods such as appliances or vehicles. GDP is also set to release and could have a significant impact on the markets if not in line with expectations. Current month over month consensus range is between 3.3% and 3.5%. PCE previously came in at 1.6%. International Trade in Goods – which will measure the exchange of tangible products like raw materials and machinery between countries is set to come in between $-96 billion to $-93 billion. Jobless Claims are also set to release between 226k-240k. 
 

The 10-year Treasury Note Futures (/ZNZ25) are trading just under the 20-day simple moving average at 112'215. Still there is some distance between the current price and the 50-day simple moving average, which is currently 112'040, and even more distance to the 200-day which is coming in at 110'235. RSI is in the middle of the ground at 49.3511. 

Durable Goods Orders: 8:30 AM ET

GDP: 8:30 ET

International Trade in Goods: 8:30 ET

Jobless Claims: 8:30 ET

Existing Home Sales: 10:00 ET

EIA Natural Gas Report: 10:30 ET

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