Looking to the Futures

Equity markets rallied back on Monday, led by software stocks and following a contentious weekend in geopolitical events. US economic events were bearish for stocks. Financial stocks will kick off Q1 earnings announcements this week with one major tech stock mixed in. Global bond yields were higher to start the week.

WTI crude oil prices surged on Sunday night after President Trump announced the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This weekend peace talks between the US and Iran broke down and President Trump responded by ordering a naval blockade of all ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz going to or coming from Iran. With nearly 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas shipments passing through the strait, markets are concerned this could exacerbate global oil and fuel shortages. Iran has continued to export crude oil during the war, with roughly 1.7 million bpd exported in March. 

US economic news released yesterday was bearish for equity markets. Mar existing home sales dropped -3.6% m/m to 3.98 million, missing the expected 4.05 million figure. Existing home sales fell to the lowest level in 9 months.

Q1 earnings season has begun with financial stocks releasing earnings this week. Goldman Sachs announced Monday morning and reported Q1 FICC sales and trading revenue of $4.01 billion, missing the consensus of $4.87 billion. Despite the miss in trading revenue, GS was able to recoup some of the early losses and close -1.5% lower. Netflix will be the only Mag 7 security to announce this week on Thursday after the close. 

Global bond yields were higher to start the week with the US 10-year Treasury note up +0.4 bp to 4.321%. The 10-year German bund yield rose +2.4 bp to 3.082% and the 10-year UK gilt yield is +2.5 bp higher to 4.861%.

Looking at the daily chart for the E Mini S&P 500 June 2026 (/ESM26) contract we can see the significant rally off yesterday’s lows on fairly mild volume. The contract bounced off the 50-Day Simple Moving Average, rising above Friday’s high. 

The Daily Technical Summary from Hightower Research has support levels at 6836.63 and 6820.57 with resistance levels at 6878.38 and 6904.06. During yesterday’s session both support levels were tested, and the contract was able to rally to close above both resistance levels. 

According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders report released April 7^th, asset managers have increased their long position by +19,491 contracts and decreased their short position by -5,226 contracts. Asset managers were net long 940,435 contracts as of the time this report was published. 

The 14-Day Relative Strength Index at 62.16% indicates more buyers than sellers but the contract has not moved into overbought territory. 

20-Day SMA                    6,652.75

50-Day SMA                    6,809.73

200-Day SMA                  6,795.20

14-Day RSI                       62.16%

Implied Volatility              15.84%

Core PPI 8:30 AM ET

NFIB Small Business Optimism 6:00 AM ET

PPI 8:30 AM ET

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