Looking to the Futures

Crude oil futures (/CLG26) ended the week lower as U.S. gasoline inventories move into a surplus. 

In addition, in its Weekly Petroleum Status Report, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude oil stockpiles declined by 1.9-million barrels during the week ending December 26. This was above expectations for a 900,000 barrel draw.

Oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, stood at 422.9 million barrels, 3% below the five-year average.

U.S. oil production increased by 2,000 barrels per day last week and averaged 13.827 million barrels per day. This was 254,000 barrels per day higher than one year ago.

On the oil product side, distillate inventories increased by 5-million barrels, which was above expectations for a 2.2-million barrel build. Distillate inventories are now 4% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Gasoline inventories increased by 5.8 million barrels, which was above expectations for a 1.9-million barrel build. These stockpiles are now 2% above the five-year average.

EIA said gasoline production decreased from the previous week and averaged 9.5-million barrels per day. Distillate production fell last week, averaging 5.2-million barrels per day.

The agency also reported that U.S. ethanol production increased last week, averaging 1.120 million barrels per day. Expectations were for an increase to 1.18 million barrels per day.

U.S. ethanol inventories increased to 22.9 million barrels last week. Traders were expecting inventories of 22.3 million barrels.

Digging further into the EIA report, refinery utilization increased by 0.1 percentage point to 94.7% last week. Expectations were for an increase to 95%. U.S. gasoline demand decreased by 379,000 barrels per day to 8.563 million barrels per day. Distillate demand also declined last week, falling by 777,000 barrels per day to 3.379 million barrels per day.

Oil storage in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the WTI Crude Oil futures (/CL) contract, increased by 500,000 barrels last week at 22.1 million barrels.

The U.S. crude oil rig count rose by three and now total 412 rigs during the reporting period ending December 30. That is down 14.5% from a year ago according to energy services firm Baker Hughes’ North American Rotary Rig Count report.

This morning, U.S. stock index futures moved higher in the early hours with the S&P 500® (+0.28%), the Nasdaq-100® (+0.65%), the Russell 2000® (+0.01%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average® (+0.03%) all positive. 

In Asia, major indexes closed higher, with the Hang Seng (+0.03%), the Nikkei (+2.97%), and the Shanghai (+1.38%).  

European trading saw the DAX (+0.61%) and the FTSE (+0.06%) move higher but the CAC (–0.08%) lower by midday. 

Natural gas futures (/NGH26) ended Friday’s trading session in the red (–2.78%) as above average temperatures are expected for a majority of the U.S. during the first half of January, which could cause lower than anticipated draws of natural gas from storage over the next few weeks.

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center is forecasting near normal to above normal temperatures from January 9^th to January 15^th for all but the Southwest portions of the lower 48 states, where below normal temperatures are expected. 

In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported U.S. natural gas inventories declined by 38 billion cubic feet (Bcf) during the week ending December 26. This was below market expectations for a 53 Bcf draw. U.S. gas inventories are currently 1.7% above the 5-year average and –1.6% below last year. 

Sugar futures (/SBH26) closed lower on Friday (–2.73%) with the lead month March contract trading near two-week lows. Sugar prices have come under pressure from expectations of large sugar production out of India, which is the world’s second largest producing nation. India’s 2025/26 sugar production is expected to total 31 million metric tons, up nearly 19% year-over-year. 

Wheat futures (/ZWH26) closed lower on Friday (–0.10%), with the lead month futures trading at levels last seen in late October. U.S. wheat exports during the week ending December 18 totaled 147,834 metric tons, down 36% from the previous week and nearly 76% below the same week last year. 
 

Major economic reports, trading events, and news items that could potentially impact specific futures markets:

ISM Manufacturing PMI for December (interest rates)

3-and 6-month T-bills 

New futures products are available to trade with a futures-approved account on all thinkorswim platforms: 

• Ripple (/XRP)
• Micro Ripple (/MXP)
• Micro Corn (/MZC)
• Micro Wheat (/MZW)
• Micro Soybean (/MZS)
• Micro Soybean Oil Futures (/MZL)
• Micro Soybean Meal Futures (/MZM)
• 1 OZ Gold (/1OZ)
• Solana (/SOL)
• Micro Solana (/MSL)

Visit the Schwab.com Futures Markets page to explore the wide variety of futures contracts available for trading through Charles Schwab Futures and Forex LLC.