Pressure Arrives from Crude, War, Tesla, Software
Published as of: May 7, 2026, 9:27 a.m. ET
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| The markets | Last price | Change | % change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500® Index | 7,137.90 | +73.89 | +1.05% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average® | 49,490.03 | +340.65 | +0.69% |
| Nasdaq Composite® | 24,657.57 | +397.60 | +1.64% |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.30% | +0.01 | -- |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 98.74 | +0.16 | +0.16% |
| Cboe Volatility Index® | 19.39 | +0.47 | +2.48% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $92.70 | –0.24 | –0.26% |
| Bitcoin | $77,775 | –$1,160 | –1.62% |
(Thursday market open) Wall Street took an early breather from its rapid, record-breaking mid-week rally. Major indexes flattened and crude slipped more than 5% as the U.S. awaited a response from Iran to its latest proposal ahead of possible talks. In a data appetizer to Friday's main course of nonfarm payrolls, April job cuts climbed sharply, but that apparently didn't stop people from having a bite at McDonald's (MCD), which reported strong quarterly results.
Though the conflict remains central, focus shifts Friday to April nonfarm payrolls, due at 8:30 a.m. ET. The average analyst estimate for new jobs has slipped over the course of the week and the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.3%. "The labor market has been showing some signs of stabilization, so Friday's report will be closely watched to see if last month's strong report was a one off or the start of a trend," said Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR).
On Wednesday, major indexes posted their second straight day of record highs for the S&P 500 Index, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Russell 2000®. The Dow Jones Industrial Average clawed back above 50,000 briefly late in the session. Volatility slid and the dollar fell almost 0.5%, another sign of easing war fears. Strong earnings from chip giant Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) helped lead the way, sending semiconductor stocks up another 4%. In data today, weekly initial jobless claims stayed low at 200,000 while preliminary first quarter productivity of 0.8% fell from 1.6% in the fourth quarter. Unit labor costs rose less than expected at 2.3%. Treasury yields fell on the data and cheaper oil.
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Three things to watch
- Jobs data looms, with revisions in focus: Estimates for April jobs growth in Friday's nonfarm payrolls report are now around 60,000, well below 178,000 in March. Revisions to previous reports may also be worth checking tomorrow morning, as will wage growth, which has generally been solid. Service-providing jobs dominated the ADP employment number yesterday, and these tend to pay less than goods-producing ones. The ADP report doesn't often correlate with the official jobs data from the government. If jobs growth is light or the report contains negative revisions, it should be taken in context. With labor participation slipping and immigration down, the "break-even" rate of jobs—or the gains needed to keep the unemployment rate steady—is low today. The unemployment rate has held between 4% and 4.5% for 21 straight months, but job cuts rose to 83,387 in April from 60,620 in March, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The tech sector announced the most at 33,361.
- Rate hike odds slip, yields still watching Iran: Treasury yields slipped Wednesday as investors began to pull back on ideas of any rate hikes this year. Early today, the CME FedWatch Tool put odds of a rate cut this year at 17%, and chances of a hike fell to 14% from nearly 30% earlier in the week as peace hopes grew. Odds remain about two in three that rates will remain right where they are all year between 3.5% and 3.75%. The Federal Reserve last cut in December. Treasury yields may drift modestly higher this year, assuming the economy stays resilient and inflation expectations stay anchored, Schwab's Howard said. "The situation in Iran will continue to drive the outlook for rates," he said. "So far, the situation in Iran hasn't dramatically altered the outlook for the economy but the longer it lingers, the greater the likelihood that it will."
- Balance beam: With the market up dramatically from late-March lows, participants might want to check their portfolios to be sure they're still comfortable with their equity exposure. This is especially for anyone holding positions in tech, because this can mean a much larger portion now devoted to one part of the market and possibly exposed if there's a pullback. Someone who entered the year wanting 70% of their portfolio in equities might find that that it's now 80% thanks to the rally. Rebalancing doesn't mean leaving the market or selling off big winners but can include paring some positions in hopes of reducing risk. Rebalancing is designed to keep a portfolio's targeted allocation across various asset classes--and intended level of risk--consistent over time. Someone who never rebalances his or her portfolio is letting the market dictate its level of risk rather than being intentional about it.
Crypto currents
A cruel month for crypto security chiefs: April unexpectedly turned into Security Month for the crypto world, with this past weekend's nearly $290 million hack delivering the latest blow to its security reputation. Google AI kicked things off on March 30 with a research paper saying quantum computing could be just years away and would enable hacking of certain bitcoin accounts in about nine minutes. Though analysts say there's plenty of time to shore up security, the paper has prompted institutional investors to ask a lot of questions and has marginally slowed investment allocations, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management. The Google paper also got the attention of blockchain management. On Monday, Ripple published a four-phase plan to make its chain quantum-resistant by 2028. Meanwhile, the bitcoin world is debating how to respond to the quantum threat. But a significant threat is already here: old-fashioned hacking. On April 1, DeFi platform Drift Protocol lost an estimated $285 million to North Korea-backed hackers. And on Saturday, a Kelp DAO-developed "bridge" between DeFi platforms that holds crypto coins lost almost $290 million to hackers. The stolen coins were then used as collateral on the decentralized lending platform Aave, prompting around $9 billion in outflows by Monday after the news broke. The hack highlighted the risk of the structural interconnectedness of the DeFi industry as Wall Street grows ever-more interested in blockchain technology.
" id="body_disclosure--media_disclosure--603306" >A cruel month for crypto security chiefs: April unexpectedly turned into Security Month for the crypto world, with this past weekend's nearly $290 million hack delivering the latest blow to its security reputation. Google AI kicked things off on March 30 with a research paper saying quantum computing could be just years away and would enable hacking of certain bitcoin accounts in about nine minutes. Though analysts say there's plenty of time to shore up security, the paper has prompted institutional investors to ask a lot of questions and has marginally slowed investment allocations, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management. The Google paper also got the attention of blockchain management. On Monday, Ripple published a four-phase plan to make its chain quantum-resistant by 2028. Meanwhile, the bitcoin world is debating how to respond to the quantum threat. But a significant threat is already here: old-fashioned hacking. On April 1, DeFi platform Drift Protocol lost an estimated $285 million to North Korea-backed hackers. And on Saturday, a Kelp DAO-developed "bridge" between DeFi platforms that holds crypto coins lost almost $290 million to hackers. The stolen coins were then used as collateral on the decentralized lending platform Aave, prompting around $9 billion in outflows by Monday after the news broke. The hack highlighted the risk of the structural interconnectedness of the DeFi industry as Wall Street grows ever-more interested in blockchain technology.
On the move
- Advanced Micro Devices popped 15% after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance late yesterday. Revenue rose nearly 38% year over year, led by a 57% jump in data center segment revenue.
- Walt Disney posted 5% early gains after quarterly earnings topped analysts' estimates and revenue rose 7% to above $25 billion. Also, domestic theme park attendance fell 1% last quarter, though international theme parks and cruise ship revenue climbed 2%.
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI) soared 13% in the early going. Earnings for the data center infrastructure provider topped expectations, though revenues missed. Guidance was stronger than expected.
- Nvidia (NVDA) climbed 2% early and Corning (GLW) soared 18% as Nvidia announced the two companies are in a long-term partnership to strengthen U.S. manufacturing for AI infrastructure. The deal includes three new manufacturing plants that will create 3,000 U.S. jobs. These plants will focus on advanced optical connectivity manufacturing.
- Intel (INTC) climbed nearly 13% Tuesday and extended gains another 4% this morning on a Bloomberg report that Apple (AAPL) held talks with Intel about possibly producing some of the chips for Apple's devices. Apple has been relying on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), shares of which fell nearly 2% Tuesday. Apple rallied 2.6% and is approaching the all-time highs it posted last fall. Intel has soared from $40 to $108 per share in just over a month.
- Uber Technologies (UBER) popped 8% in early action even though its 14% annual revenue climb to $13.2 billion slightly missed consensus. Earnings per share topped analysts' estimates, while gross bookings, trip volume, and active users kept growing during the quarter. Guidance for the current quarter was toward the low end of the consensus range.
- CVS Health (CVS) added 5% this morning after easily beating analysts' earnings and revenue estimates and seeing better-than-expected growth in every business segment. CVS also raised guidance for the full year.
- Arm Holdings (ARM) popped 12% ahead of earnings later today. Shares surged over the last month with the rest of the chip sector. Investors might want to check for any updates on the Chinese market amid recent trade tension. At its investor day in March, ARM shared a strategic pivot in which it plans to go from being a chip licensor to a direct silicon provider. It also issued strong guidance.
- Airline and cruise shares racked up gains early today on falling oil prices and hopes for an end to the war. United Airlines (UAL) rose 8%, Delta Air Lines (DAL) rose 7.4%, and Royal Caribbean (RCL) recently traded 7.6% higher. Meanwhile, the dollar fell to pre-war levels and metals prices rose. Energy-related shares mostly fell.
- Arista Networks (ANET) tumbled 8% despite earnings and revenue that topped consensus views. The company also shared guidance above Wall Street's expectations. The company's slightly lower-than-expected forecast for second quarter adjusted operating margin may have disappointed investors, Barron's reported.
More insights from Schwab
Relief picture: The market's recent rally comes despite elevated fuel costs and continued geopolitical uncertainty. So, is this buying strength really sustainable? The latest episode of Washington Wise explores the concept of relief rallies through the lens of the current market.
Munis and oil—what's the link? How could higher oil prices affect the municipal bond market? There are possible positive and negative impacts, so investors might want to learn about them in our latest article and evaluate their concentration risk.
Optimize strategy for options trading during earnings: Check out our video on how to optimize your strategy selection for earnings reports. Trading options around earnings may sound like a good strategy, but it's also a challenge.
Chart of the day
Data source: CME Group. Chart source: thinkorswim® platform.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
For illustrative purposes only.
Bitcoin futures (/BTC—candlesticks) have worked their way just above $80,000 to the highest level since January. But the area around the average cost basis for spot exchange-traded products (about $83,700) could act as resistance if investors look to cut their losses or take profits after the months-long downturn. Further overhead is the 200-day moving average (green line).
The week ahead
Check out the investors' calendar for a summary of the top economic events and earnings reports on tap this week.
April 24: Final April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
April 27: Expected earnings from Verizon (VZ), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), Public Storage (PSA), and Nucor (NUE).
April 28: April consumer confidence and expected earnings from Coca-Cola (KO), Novartis AG (NVS), Corning (GLW), BP PLC (BP), Spotify (SPOT), UPS (UPS), American Tower (AMT), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Visa (V), T-Mobile (TMUS), Seagate (STX), Starbucks (SBUX), Waste Management (WM), and Mondelez (MDLZ).
April 29: February housing starts and building permits, March durable orders, February new home sales, FOMC interest rate decision, and expected earnings from Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), AbbVie (ABBV), and Qualcomm (QCOM).
April 30: ECB rate decision, Q1 GDP first estimate, March PCE and core PCE prices, and expected earnings from Apple (AAPL), Eli Lilly (LLY), Mastercard (MA), Caterpillar (CAT), Merck (MRK), ConocoPhillips (COP), Amgen (AMGN), Altria (MO), SanDisk (SNDK), and Western Digital (WDC).