Today's Options Market Update

Micron Earnings Ahead, Powell Returns to Podium

June 25, 2025 Joe Mazzola

With the Middle East ceasefire holding and stocks at or near record highs, investors await Micron's earnings later and more remarks from the Fed's Powell. New home sales are next.

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After the Nasdaq-100^® (NDX) carved a new all-time high and the S&P 500 index posted its best close since February, markets have large shoes to fill and major indexes were flat early. The Middle East ceasefire, cheaper oil, and rate optimism that supercharged stocks yesterday remain, but it might take additional catalysts to push things much higher with key budget and tariff deadlines straight ahead.

Possible touchpoints today include a five-year Treasury note auction, new home sales and Nvidia's (NVDA) shareholder meeting. Treasuries and the dollar were little changed early, with the 10-year note yield near recent lows and the greenback down from highs early this week when investors embraced perceived safety. Demand for the $70 billion auction will be monitored, and yields could rise if buyers don't emerge. Analysts expect May new home sales, due at 10 a.m. ET, to reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 700,000, down from 743,000 in April.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell heads to the Senate today for more testimony, keeping rates, inflation, and economic trends in focus. Powell stayed cautious on rates yesterday at the House but signaled flexibility if inflation can remain contained despite tariffs. His flexibility was one reason sectors like tech, communication services, and industrials led the way yesterday as risk appetite improved. Financials got a lift on hopes that improving optimism from markets could seep into consumer and business sentiment, driving more demand for banking and payment services. The tech and industrials sectors posted new record highs yesterday.

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research

Morning Rush

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is higher by one basis point to 4.30%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is unchanged at 97.87.

The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) is down 1.50% to 17.22.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is higher by 2.00% to $65.64/barrel.

Bitcoin (BTC) is marginally higher today, trading at $107,495.

Ethereum (ETH) is lower by 0.35% today to $2,428.

Today's Bullish Activity

Shares of Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR + $8.06 to $32.51) are higher by nearly 34% today, to the highest level since February 2023, jumping and extending gains for a second day. This move comes on the heels of the biotech firm reporting statistically significant results from its Phase 2b REZOLVE-AD trial, hitting every goal in a mid-stage study of its eczema treatment. The trial showed all three dose levels of rezpegaldesleukin meeting the primary endpoint and key secondary endpoints at week 16 in patients with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis (AD) on Tuesday, per Bloomberg. Nektar Therapeutics Chief Executive Howard Robin said the results "clearly demonstrate" the firm has "established a new biology."

HC Wainwright analyst Arthur He said, "the totality of rezpeg's Phase 2b data further solidifies the therapeutic potential of the drug for AD patients," and raised his PT to a "street high" $120 while maintaining his Buy rating. Option trading in NKTR currently stands at 11,324 contracts, 3x the daily average, with call and puts trading even. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

July 18th, 2025, 23.00 put accounted for 1,132 contracts; open interest is 685 contracts.
July 18th, 2025, 41.00 call accounted for 555 contracts; open interest is zero contracts.
July 18th, 2025, 20.00 call accounted for 550 contracts; open interest is 843 contracts.

New 52-week highs (133 new highs today): Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR + $0.05 to $143.28), Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD + $0.36 to $82.37), Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN + $4.59 to $349.41), Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR + $8.06 to $32.51)

Notable Call Activity

Unusual call activity is noted today in Chime Financial Inc. (CHYM + $3.90 to $32.90), as call volume currently stands at 29,413 contracts, 12x the average daily volume and 19x the put volume. Much of the activity can be attributed the July 18th, 2025, expiration month, particularly the 35.00, 40.00, 45.00 and 50.00 strike calls which are generating significant interest. Over 24,000 contracts have traded collectively between them. While the trades have been two-ways, we are seeing more buying, as traders scramble to buy in upside following a 13% intraday price move. Chime Financial went public just two weeks ago, and after trading as high as $44.94 on its IPO day, shares of CHYM had pulled back to a low price of $28.21 just two days ago.

Other call activity of note can be seen today in the Up Fintech Holdings (TIGR + $1.94 to $10.07), as call volume has spiked to 192,022 contracts in morning trading, 80x daily average. Nearly half of that volume comes from the January 16th, 2026, expiration where 94,163 calls have traded at the 9.00 strike. Most of that volume has been on the sell side, as traders have collected between $2.20 - $2.45 per contract, near or at the bid price, through multiple block trades. Open interest was only 1,204 contracts, so we know this represents new positioning (suggesting neutral to bearish intent). Shares of TIGR are up over 24.00% today, so it's possible these trades could be an attempt to fade today's move.

Today's Bearish Activity

Shares of Paychex Inc. (PAYX - $12.70 to $139.54) are down over 8% in morning trading, the most intraday since March 2020, after the payroll and human-resources company reported adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter that matched the average analyst estimate. Paychex posted adjusted EPS of $1.19, in line with estimates. Revenue rose to $1.43 billion from $1.3 billion. Analysts expected $1.44 billion. Going forward, the company forecasts adjusted EPS rising 8.5% to 10.5% and revenue climbing by 16.5% to 18.5%. Paychex did, however, note that changes in the macroeconomic environment could impact its guidance figures.

Option trading in PAYX currently stands at 17,238 contracts in early morning trading, on pace for 5x the daily average, with puts outpacing calls 1.5:1. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

July 18th, 2025, 145.00 call accounted for 2,732 contracts; open interest is 149 contracts.
July 18th, 2025, 135.00 put accounted for 3,880 contracts; open interest is 3,601 contracts.
July 18th, 2025, 130.00 put accounted for 2,860 contracts; open interest is 275 contracts.

New 52-week lows (43 new lows today): General Mills (GIS - $2.27 to $51.14), Sarepta Therapeutics (SPRT - $1.56 to $17.42), Conagra Brands Inc. (CAG - $0.78 to $20.68), The Campbell's Company (CPB - $0.84 to $31.33)

Notable Put Activity

Some unusual put activity is noted today in Brighthouse Financial Inc. (BHK - $0.54 to $53.18). This activity equates to over 16,578 put contracts, 70x average daily put volume. Most of the activity stems from a put calendar trade that occurred between the July 18th, and August 15th, 2025, expiration months, at the 50.00 strike. Traders purchased the 50.00 put calendar, meaning buying the August and selling the July expiration, a total of 8,000 times in a single block transaction for a price of $1.20 when the bid/ask was $0.30 x $1.55. These appear to both represent new positions, given the collective open interest of 410 contracts. Traders may buy calendars if they believe the share price will move toward that short strike around the closer expiration. In this case, with the 50.00 strike below the current share price, one may conclude that this is a slightly bearish trade.

Another example of unusual put activity occurred today in the Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China ETF (ASHR + $0.30 to $30.64), as put volume stands at 26,412 contracts in morning trading, 27x average daily volume. Traders bought the September 19th, 2025, expiration 26.00 strike put 25,000 times in a single block transaction for $0.42, slightly above the mid-price. Open interest was only 12 contracts, so we know this is a new position (suggesting bearish intent). Shares of ASHR are up over 15% since early April but still well off the 52-week high price of $35.72, set back in October 2024.

Gauging Volatility

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX - 0.26 to 17.22) is down 1.50% in morning trading, as equity markets are mixed across the board (DJI - 128, SPX + 1, COMPX + 58). VIX movement has occurred within a narrow range today (the intraday range is 16.93 – 17.49). The highest volume contract is the July 16th, 2025, 17.00 put (volume is 37,505 vs. open interest of 221,731).

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