Today's Options Market Update

Though war remains front and center, today's February Consumer Price Index (CPI) provided what might be a welcome distraction and came in right down the middle. Headline monthly CPI of 0.3% and core of 0.2%, excluding food and energy, matched Wall Street's expectations, while annual CPI rose 2.4%, also as expected. Major indexes lost ground early, with a wary eye on climbing crude prices.

Crude tracked higher after three carrier ships were hit by projectiles near the Strait of Hormuz, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed the largest release of strategic oil stockpiles in history. The IEA crude release would be around 300 million to 400 million barrels and likely add about one million barrels a day to oil supplies, Bloomberg reported. That said, around 15 million barrels of oil a day normally flow through the Strait of Hormuz and remain stuck.

Major indexes mostly fell Tuesday but the Nasdaq rose, lifted partly by a resilient chip sector led by memory chip names like Micron (MU) and Western Digital (WDC). The Nasdaq got another boost this morning as Oracle (ORCL) soared on its constructive earnings report late yesterday. Crude's dramatic rally to $120 per barrel early Monday followed by a drop to near $85 Tuesday—coupled with a sharp reversal in the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX)—led to ideas that perhaps a bottom is in for major indexes. Given the elevated uncertainty, it's "probably too early to make that call," said Nathan Peterson, director of derivatives research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, or SCFR.

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is higher by 7 bps to 4.21%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is higher by 0.41% to 99.23.

The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) is unchanged at 24.93.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is higher by 4.43% to $87.12/barrel.

Bitcoin (BTC) is up by 0.85% to $70,790.

Ethereum (ETH) is up by 1.54% to $2,075.

Shares of Oracle Corp. (ORCL + $19.52 to $168.92) are higher by 13.00% today, after the software and cloud services company reported strong Q3 sales and issued an outlook that suggests continued demand for AI computing. Revenue in Oracle's infrastructure business jumped 84% to $4.9 billion in the three months ended Feb. 28, surpassing analysts' expectations for 79% growth and up from 68% the previous quarter. Total revenue increased 22% to $17.2 billion. Oracle's cloud applications business expanded 13% to $4 billion, in line with estimates. Earnings, excluding some items, were $1.79 per share. Analysts, on average, estimated profit of $1.70 a share on sales of $16.9 billion, per Bloomberg.

Oracle's capital expenditures and debt financing had drawn the ire of equity and debt investors. Shares had plummeted 53% since hitting a high on September 10, making it the worst performer in the S&P 500 over that span. Oracle's five-year credit default swaps surged past 160 basis points this year, their highest reading since the 2008 financial crisis. In the most recent earnings report, Oracle's capital expenditures were about $18.6 billion in Q3, higher than the $14 billion anticipated by analysts. However, Oracle maintained its outlook for $50 billion in capital costs in the current fiscal year, which "could address concerns about overspending that have plagued Oracle and other cloud infrastructure providers," wrote Anurag Rana, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

Option trading in ORCL currently stands at 293,385 contracts, 15x the average daily volume with calls outpacing puts 2:1. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

• March 13th, 2026, 170.00 call accounted for 24,326 contracts; open interest is 14,804 contracts.
• March 13th, 2026, 175.00 call accounted for 18,700 contracts; open interest is 11,556 contracts.
• March 13th, 2026, 180.00 call accounted for 17,420 contracts; open interest is 17,116 contracts.

New 52-week highs (67 new highs today): Commercial Vehicle G (CVGI + $0.90 to $2.52), Occugen Inc. (OCGN + $0.45 to $2.22), Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras (PBR + $0.84 to $18.82), Fastly Inc. (FSLY + $1.73 to $24.47)

Unusual call activity is noted today in Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV + $1.06 to $10.73), as call volume currently stands at 22,313 contracts, 11x the average daily volume and 5x the put volume. Activity is strongest in the March 13th, 2026, expiration month where over 10,000 contracts have already traded.  Traders are most active at the 11.00, 11.50, and 12.00 strikes. While action has been two-sided, most of the trades have been directionally bullish (suggesting bullish intent). Shares of SERV were trading at $11.60 earlier today before retreating to their current level. Interestingly, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs may have acted as resistance, as they both intersect around $11.50.

Another name exhibiting unusual call activity today is Carlyle Group Inc. (CG - $1.13 to $47.32), as call volume has risen to 20,144 contracts in morning trading, 45x the average volume and 70x the put volume. Basically, all the volume can be attributed to a massive call vertical spread that traded in the May 15th, 2026, expiration month. Traders bought 10,000 of the 52.50/60.00 call vertical spreads (20,000 total contracts), paying $1.47 per contract for the transaction. There were a collective 25 contracts of open interest, so we know this represents new positioning (suggesting bullish intent). Shares of CG are down 20% year-to-date, trading at their lowest level since mid-May.

Shares of The Campbell's Company (CPB - $1.95 to $22.73) are down over 8.00% today, trading at a 52-week low, after the food company missed on Q2 earnings and revenue and cut its profit outlook to the lowest in a decade as consumers are foregoing snacks while supply constraints are weighing on sales of freshly baked goods. Campbells reported Q2 earnings of $0.52 per share on net sales of $2.56 billion.  Both numbers missed analyst expectations. The company also lowered its full-year earnings forecast, adjusted for some items, to between $2.15 to $2.25 per share, below the prior range of $2.40 to $2.55. That's set to be the lowest profit since 2009.

Campbells attributes the lower forecast to its snacks division which missed expectations in Q2, "primarily driven by declines in chips and pretzels, supply constraints related to fresh bakery and third-party partner brands and contract manufacturing." That weighed on overall results, prompting the company to step up cost saving measures, including $100 million in additional near-term overhead reductions and a suspension of all share repurchases, per Bloomberg.

Option trading in CPB currently stands at 17,268 contracts, 11x the average daily volume with calls outpacing puts 1.5:1. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

• March 20th, 2026, 25.00 call accounted for 1,803 contracts; open interest is 505 contracts.
• March 13th, 2026, 23.00 put accounted for 1,005 contracts; open interest is 962 contracts.
• March 13th, 2026, 24.00 call accounted for 903 contracts; open interest is 114 contracts.

New 52-week lows (73 new lows today): Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL - $0.24 to $9.22), The Campbell's Company (CPB - $1.95 to $22.73), AMC Entertainment (AMC - $0.02 to $1.09), General Mills (GIS - $1.35 to $40.93)

There is unusual put activity today in AXT Inc. (AXTI - $0.73 to $43.57). This activity equates to over 9,447 put contracts, 33x average daily put volume and 4x the call volume. Most of the activity has occurred in the March 20th, 2026, expiration, as traders are targeting the 40.00 put strike. Most of the 8,600 contracts traded this morning were sold at an average price of $3.30 when the bid/ask was $3.30 x $3.70. With only 1,421 contracts of open interest, this appears to represent new positioning (suggesting neutral to bullish sentiment). Shares of AXTI have rallied a massive 200% year-to-date.

Unusual activity has also been detected in Mondelez Intl Inc. (MDLZ - $1.47 to $55.11), as put volume stands at 4,677 contracts, 15x average volume and 30x call volume, in morning trading. Most of the volume is in the March 20th, 2026, expiration, as traders are active at the 54.00 put strike. Over 3,000 contracts have traded today, mostly on the buy side, with prices ranging from $0.50 to $0.80. These are opening trades, given the open interest of 6 contracts (suggesting bearish sentiment). Shares of MDLZ have pulled back 13% in the past month and recently broke below their 100-day SMA, a level of recent support. Traders may expect the decline to continue based upon today's activity.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX + 0.01 to 24.93) is basically unchanged as equity markets are mixed in early morning trading (DJI - 338, SPX - 12, COMPX + 13). VIX movement has occurred within a wider range today (the intraday range is 23.75 to 26.23). The highest volume contract is currently March 18th, 2026, 25.00 call (volume is 43,519 vs. open interest of 214,249).