Today's Options Market Update

After a third straight weekly drop pushed the S&P 500 Index to nearly four-month lows, investors face several central bank meetings, an Nvidia (NVDA) conference, and earnings from chip giant Micron (MU) in coming days. So naturally, Wall Street focused this morning on crude oil prices and the war in the Middle East. Stocks edged up early as crude slipped, though investors might want to remember that recent rallies often faded.

Nvidia's (NVDA) GPU Tech Conference (GTC) features a speech by CEO Jensen Huang at 2 p.m. ET today that might momentarily distract from the drumbeat of war news. Huang will likely deliver several AI-related headlines, which could have an impact on tech stocks. Looking further out, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged Wednesday afternoon while delivering updated economic projections and a new "dot plot" of possible rate paths.

On Friday, Wall Street suffered sharp losses on rising crude, with tech stocks under pressure thanks to chip weakness. Energy and utilities were the only green sectors last week. Technically, the Nasdaq Composite suffered a blow Friday, closing beneath its 200-day moving average for the first time since May. The S&P 500 Index hovers just above its own of 6,600. Over the weekend, the U.S. asked for international help keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and attacked Iranian installations on Kharg Island. Hopes that a multi-country coalition could come together and help oil flow again appeared to help sentiment this morning.

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is lower by ~5 basis points to 4.232%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is lower by 0.40 to 99.96.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is lower by 3.69% to $95.07/barrel.

Gold prices have traded in a range of $4,970.10-5,044.50 and were last seen trading lower by ~1.08% to $5,007.20/oz.

Natural Gas prices for March futures have traded in a range of $3.059-3.18 today and were last seen trading lower by 1.92% to $3.071.

Bitcoin (BTC) is higher by ~0.46% over the last 24 hours to $73,157.20 today.

Shares of Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR + $7.04 to $114.50) are moving higher this morning after the discount retailer reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.56 ($0.03 beat) on Q4 revenue that increased 9% year-over-year (YoY) to $5.45B (slightly below the $5.46B FactSet consensus estimate). Looking ahead, the company guided Q1 adjusted net income to a range of $1.45-1.60 on FY26 net sales of $4.90-5.00B versus the respective $1.56 & $4.96B FactSet consensus estimates. Puts are outnumbering calls nearly 2:1 with the March 20^th 105.00 put being the highest volume contract (volume is 2,889).

Also trading to the upside this morning is Forgent Power Solutions Inc. (FPS + $4.27 to $35.24) after the maker of electrical equipment for datacenters reported fiscal Q2 EPS of $0.15 ($0.02 beat) on Q2 revenue that increased 69% YoY to $296.40M (above the $283.19M expected). Forgent’s bookings increased 268% YoY to $762M and the company’s book-to-bill ratio rose to 2.6x from 1.6X in the prior quarter. FPS priced is initial public offering at $27.00 per share back on February 4th. Calls are outnumbering puts nearly 3:1 with the March 20^th 40.00 call seeing the most action from traders (volume is 635).

New 52-week highs (56 new highs today): Devon Energy Corp. (DVN + $0.52 to $46.77), Range Resources Corp. (RRC + $0.93 to $44.44), Ventas Inc. (VTR + $0.93 to $87.49)

Some unusual call activity (~100:1 calls over puts) is being seen in CEMEX S.A.B. de C.V. (CX + $0.20 to $10.61) which is primarily driven by activity on the July 17^th 12.00 call. Volume on this contract is 3,081 versus open interest of 547, so we know that the volume primarily represents fresh positioning. The majority of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were bought around the same time at the ask price of $0.60 each, which suggests bullish intent.

Shares of Adobe Inc. (ADBE - $2.37 to $246.95) are under pressure this morning after several analysts downgraded or lowered priced targets on the enterprise software maker – Argus downgraded ADBE to “Hold” from “Buy”, Goldman Sachs cuts their price target to $220.00 from $290.00 while maintain their Sell rating, Citic Securities cut their price target to $358.00 from $496.00 while maintaining their buy rating. Adobe announced quarterly results last Thursday, which included a retirement announcement from 18-year CEO Shantanu Narayen. Calls are outnumbering puts better than 3:1 with the March 20^th 260.00 call seeing the most action from traders (volume is 21,434).

Also trading to the downside today is VNET Group Inc. (VNET - $0.81 to $9.70) after the China-based IT services provider reported a Q4 net loss of ¥0.01 per diluted American depository receipt (¥0.04 miss) on Q4 revenue of ¥2.69B (above the ¥2.62B consensus estimate). Looking ahead, the company said that it expects 2026 net revenue of ¥11.5-11.80B versus the ¥11.72B FactSet consensus estimate. Calls are outnumbering puts ~10:1 with the March 20^th 11.00 call being the highest volume contract (volume is 1,893).

New 52-week lows (79 new lows today): Five9 Inc. (FIVN - $0.14 to $15.62), Group 1 Automotive Inc. (GPI - $0.77 to $299.13), Planet Fitness Inc. (PLNT + $1.57 to $75.19)

Some unusual put activity (~100:1 puts over calls) is being seen in Carrier Global Corp. (CARR + $0.26 to $55.91) which is primarily being driven by a 21,170 contract block that was sold on the June 18^th 50.00 put for $2.20 when the bid/ask spread was $2.00 x $2.60 (open interest is 925). We know that this block is a new position based on the open interest figure and the put sale suggests that the block trader believes CARR will close above the $50.00 price level and/or is comfortable taking a long 2.117M share position in the stock at an effective purchase price of $47.80 if CARR closes below $50.00 at expiration.

Syndax Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SNDX + $0.60 to $24.10): Option volume is running at ~47x the daily average on this commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company which is primarily being driven by a couple of large blocks that simultaneously traded on the April 17^th expiration earlier this morning:

• 25.00 call (open interest is 789): A 1,500 contract block was bought for $1.28 when the bid/ask spread was $0.70 x $1.75.
• 28.00 call (open interest is 28): A 1,500 contract block was sold for $0.56 when the bid/ask spread was $0.45 x $1.15.

We know that these blocks are new positions based on the respective open interest figures, and it appears that a $3.00-wide bull call spread was established for a net debit of $0.72 (x 1,500 contracts x 100 multiplier, excluding commissions). The positioning suggests that the block trader believes that SNDK will close above the break-even price of $25.72 at expiration.

Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL + $7.24 to $337.97): Option volume is running at ~20x the daily average on this apparel maker which is primarily being driven by a couple of large blocks that simultaneously traded on the April 17^th expiration earlier this morning:

• 350.00 call (open interest is 59): A 750 contract block was bought for $10.16 when the bid/ask spread was $8.50 x $11.30.
• 380.00 call (open interest is 22): A 1,500 contract block was sold for $2.38 when the bid/ask spread was $1.25 x $3.50.

We know that these blocks are new positions based on the respective open interest figures, and it appears that a (bullish) call front spread was established for a net debit of $5.40 (x 750 contracts x 100 multiplier, excluding commissions). The positioning suggests that the block trader believes that RL will close above the break-even price of $355.40 at expiration. Since the position is short 2x the higher strike call, the block trader would be exposed to losses if RL closes above the upper break-even price of $404.60 at expiration.

Amer Sports Inc. (AS + $1.43 to $33.77): Option volume is running at ~8x the daily average on this sports equipment, apparel, footwear and accessories maker which is primarily driven by activity on the April 17^th 35.00 call. Volume on this contract is 4,124 versus open interest of 51, so it’s likely that nearly all the volume represents fresh positioning. The majority of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were bought at various times for between $1.30-1.50 each, which suggests bullish intent.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX - 2.90 to 24.29) has been in negative territory all day today (the intraday range is 23.44-26.42), as equity markets are higher across the board around the midday mark (DJI + 343, SPX + 61, $COMP + 263). VIX option volume is above average today at 436,952 contracts, and calls are outnumbering puts roughly 2:1.