Today's Options Market Update

With a Federal Reserve decision directly ahead and no rate change anticipated, investors mull another hot Producer Price Index (PPI) report and cast a wary eye at crude oil and the Middle East. Headline February PPI spiked 0.7% compared with the 0.3% consensus. Stocks fell after PPI and crude steadied amid continued Iranian attacks on Gulf states. Wall Street often treads water heading into rate announcements.

Today brings a new set of Fed economic projections and a look at the possible rate path, all released along with the rate decision at 2 p.m. ET and followed shortly by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference. In the last "dot plot" of rates issued in December, Fed policymakers predicted a single rate cut this year. Any evolution of that—either to no change or even a possible rise—would be notable today. So would any comments Powell makes about his future at the Fed, considering his term as chairman ends in May but his tenure on the board of governors extends beyond that. Analysts expect the Fed to hold rates in the current range of 3.5% to 3.75% for the second straight meeting after three cuts late last year.

On Tuesday, major indexes rebounded despite another rise in crude and Iranian attacks on tankers and regional oil infrastructure. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) deliver rate decisions tonight and tomorrow morning, U.S. time. Most key central banks are on hold amid growing risks of stagflation. "There is a nonlinear impact of energy supply disruption—each day of disruption is multiple days before things return to normal," said Michelle Gibley, director of international equity research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR).

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is higher by 2 bps to 4.23%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is higher by 0.25% to 99.82.

The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) is higher by 4.38% to 23.31.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is higher by 1.32% to $96.78/barrel.

Bitcoin (BTC) is down by 4.43% to $71,375.

Ethereum (ETH) is down by 6.15% to $2,184.

Shares of Macy's Inc. (M + $1.45 to $18.37) are higher by over 8.00% today, the biggest intraday gain since last November, after the department store operator forecasted stronger-than-expected sales in the current quarter, a sign that its fiscal year is off to a good start. Macy's said it expects net sales as high as $4.63 billion in Q1, above the average estimate with comparable sales increasing as 1.5% in the period, also above estimates. Macy's forecasts may suggest that middle and higher-income households continue to spend and that its momentum should continue after a strong holiday season. The company is also benefitting from the bankruptcy of Saks which allows it to capitalize further on its acquisition of Bloomingdales. Macy's posted sales and profit that beat Wall Street's estimates in the quarter that ended Jan. 31, per Bloomberg.

Going forward, for the full year, Macy's did provide a cautious note, as impacts from tariffs and the turmoil could reduce customer spending. The company now expects adjusted diluted EPS to range between $1.90 and $2.10, below the average estimate of analysts compiled by Bloomberg. Macy's also said it expects annual comparable sales to increase as much as 0.5%, narrowly below Bloomberg estimates.

Option trading in M currently stands at 9,346 contracts, 6x the average daily volume with calls outpacing puts 1.5:1. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

March 20th, 2026, 18.00 call accounted for 1,372 contracts; open interest is 3,748 contracts.

March 20th, 2026, 19.00 call accounted for 874 contracts; open interest is 11,594 contracts.

March 20th, 2026, 18.00 put accounted for 591 contracts; open interest is 1,309 contracts.

New 52-week highs (112 new highs today): Ovid Therapeutics Inc. (OVID + $0.40 to $2.41), Micron Technology (MU + $7.30 to $468.99), SanDisk Corp. (SNDK + $24.90 to $745.08), Dow Inc. (DOW + $0.44 to $24.47)

Unusual call activity is noted today in Shoals Technologies (SHLS - $0.20 to $5.97), as call volume currently stands at 10,033 contracts, 44x the average daily volume and 150x the put volume. Activity is strongest in the May 15th, 2026, expiration month where over 10,000 contracts have already exchanged hands. Traders have targeted the 7.00 strike calls and used one large block trade to sell 9,999 calls at $0.54 when the bid/ask was $0.50 x $0.70. We know this trade represents new positioning, given the open interest of 362 contracts (suggesting neutral to bearish intent). Shares of SHLS have been on a bit of a freefall of late, following an earnings miss on February 24th. Shares are down over 35% since that report.

Another name exhibiting unusual call activity today is Blacksky Technology (BKSY + $0.34 to $26.74), as call volume has risen to 3,543 contracts in morning trading, 15x the average volume and 70x the put volume. Most of the volume can be attributed to the April 17th, 2026, expiration month, specifically at the 30.00 strike. Traders have sold over 3,290 calls in multiple block trades with prices ranging from $2.05 - $2.15, near or at the bid price at time of execution. Coming into today, there were 1,190 contracts of open interest, so these are likely either new positions or additions to shorts (suggesting neutral to bearish intent). Shares of BKSY have rallied over 50% since the last earnings beat on February 26th. Traders may be fading the move.

Shares of SailPoint Inc. (SAIL - $1.95 to $12.76) are down over 13.00% today, trading at a 52-week low, after the identity-security company's outlook was seen as disappointing, even as the company narrowed its net loss as revenue climbed in its fiscal Q4. Per Bloomberg, SailPoint posted a loss of $36.2 million, or $0.06 per share, for its three months ended Jan. 31, compared with a loss of $80.1 million, or $4.29 a share, a year earlier. Total revenue climbed 23% to $294.6 million, ahead of analyst expectations for $292.7 million.

Going forward, for the current quarter, SailPoint is expecting adjusted earnings of $0.04 - $0.05 per share on total revenue of $273 million to $277 million. Analysts were expecting higher figures for both metrics. For the year, the company said it expects adjusted earnings of $0.30 - $0.34 per share, coming in at the midpoint of analyst expectations. Revenue is projected to come in between $1.26 billion and $1.27 billion.

Option trading in SAIL currently stands at 1,869 contracts, 4x the average daily volume with calls outpacing puts 1.5:1. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

• March 20th, 2026, 12.50 put accounted for 231 contracts; open interest is 432 contracts.
• April 17th, 2026, 17.50 call accounted for 208 contracts; open interest is 1,042 contracts.
• March 20th, 2026, 22.50 call accounted for 155 contracts; open interest is 566 contracts.

New 52-week lows (153 new lows today): New Fortress Energy (NFE - $0.24 to $0.91), Tencent Music Entertainment (TME - $0.89 to $10.48), AMC Entertainment (AMC - $0.02 to $1.05), General Mills (GIS - $0.25 to $38.49)

There is unusual put activity today in Kohl's Corp. (KSS - $0.33 to $12.23). This activity equates to over 18,685 put contracts, 12x average daily put volume and 11x the call volume. Most of the activity has occurred in the April 17th, 2026, expiration, as traders are targeting the 12.00 put strike. Trades sold 10,000 of the 12.00 strike puts in a single block transaction at $0.78 when the bid/ask was $0.78 x $0.87. With only 396 contracts of open interest, we know those represent new positions (suggesting neutral to bullish sentiment). Shares of KSS have dropped nearly 50% since their 52-week high price of $25.22, set last December. The current RSI of 19 suggests a technically oversold condition.

Unusual activity has also been detected in Amphenol Corp. (APH - $3.96 to $131.12), as put volume stands at 13,226 contracts, 8x average volume and 3x call volume, in morning trading. Most of the volume is in the May 15th, 2026, expiration, as traders are active at the 95.00 put strike. A large block trade of 9,718 contracts was sold at $1.30, slightly below the mid-point at the time of the transaction. There were only 182 contracts of open interest, so we know this represents new positioning (suggesting neutral to bullish intent). Shares of AMPH have pulled back 22% since posting a 52-week high price of $167.04 in late January and are approaching recent support levels around $125.00.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX + 0.94 to 23.31) is higher by 4.38% today as equity markets are lower across the board in morning trading (DJI - 407, SPX - 36, COMPX - 113). VIX movement has occurred within a wider range today (the intraday range is 21.47 to 23.87). The highest volume contract is currently April 15th, 2026, 40.00 call (volume is 68,814 vs. open interest of 110,770).