Today's Options Market Update

Nvidia Leads Early Tech Gains Ahead of Fed Minutes

February 18, 2026 Joe Mazzola

Nvidia led slumping tech stocks to early gains on an expanded chip deal with Meta Platforms. Fed minutes later today could provide insight on rates, and Walmart reports tomorrow.

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Investors face a triple play starting with Federal Reserve minutes later today followed by Walmart (WMT) earnings tomorrow and inflation data Friday. Wall Street enters this stretch with light gains the last two sessions and signs of life again this morning as battered tech stocks drummed up some buying interest. Nvidia (NVDA) climbed 2% early on news of an expanded AI chip deal with Meta Platforms (META).

Treasury yields edged up ahead of Fed minutes due at 2 p.m. ET but remain near two-month lows just above 4% for the 10-year note. This might be one aspect of the tailwind for stocks the last two days, and reflects widening futures market expectations for a possible third Fed rate cut this year. Minutes might provide more insight on that front. At the same time, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) remains in cautious territory slightly above 20 but fell this morning.

Tuesday marked the third-straight session where rally attempts flagged late in the day, which suggests a market that's tiring and perhaps can't generate enthusiastic buying interest on upward moves. The midday gains accompanied a slide in volatility, lower Treasury yields, and signs of dip-buying in tech, but none appeared exciting enough to provide any additional boost. Some sort of catalyst might be needed to give tech a lift, and Nvidia's earnings next week loom. Until tech picks up the baton, it could be tough for major indexes to gain traction.

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research

Morning Rush

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is up 2 bps to 4.07%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is higher by 0.35% to 97.49.

The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) is down 7.69% to 18.73.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is higher by 3.94% to $64.71/barrel.

Bitcoin (BTC) is down by 1.02% to $67,170.

Ethereum (ETH) is down by 1.02% to $1,977.

Today's Bullish Activity

Shares of Garmin Ltd. (GRMN + $27.02 to $244.00) are up over 12.00% today after the smartwatch and navigation tool manufacturer posted strong Q4 earnings and issued an upbeat forecast for 2026. Garmin topped Q4 analyst estimates by a wide margin after posting EPS of $2.79, as revenue climbed 17% to $2.12 billion. Leading the earnings and revenue gains was the fitness division, as operating income jumped 62% y/y to $257 million and sales increased 42% y/y to $765.8 million.

The company also adjusted its 2026 outlook with estimates that were notably above consensus views. Garmin now sees pro-forma earnings of $9.35 a share, well above analyst estimates for $8.78. The company also guided for $7.9 billion in revenue for 2026, above calls for $7.7 billion, per Bloomberg. Lastly, Garmin announced a 17% quarterly dividend hike to $1.05 per share.

Option trading in GRMN currently stands at 2,480 contracts, 13x the average daily volume with calls outpacing puts 2:1. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

March 20th, 2026, 240.00 call accounted for 511 contracts; open interest is 1,140 contracts.
February 20th, 2026, 250.00 call accounted for 215 contracts; open interest is 71 contracts.
February 20th, 2026, 230.00 put accounted for 147 contracts; open interest is zero contracts.

New 52-week highs (250 new highs today): Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings (CCO + $0.02 to $2.40), Sensei Biotherapeutics Inc. (SNSE + $16.52 to $25.65), Compass Pathways (CMPS + $0.77 to $8.40), Analog Devices Corp. (ADI + $10.92 to $348.43)

Notable Call Activity

Unusual call activity is noted today in CDW Corp. (CDW - $1.03 to $124.11), as call volume currently stands at 6,597 contracts, 30x the average daily volume and 300x the put volume. Most of the activity can be attributed to large call vertical spread that was sold in the March 20th, 2026, expiration month. Traders sold the 140.00/150.00 call vertical spread through multiple trades for a price of $0.61 when the bid/ask was $0.35 x $1.00, so slightly below the mid-price. It appears traders may be rolling down their previous short positions from the 150.00 strike to the 140.00 strike given the open interest. This would indicate that traders may still possess a neutral to slightly bearish posture. Shares of CDW just posted a 52-week low of $120.52 on February 12th.

Another name exhibiting unusual call activity today is Madden Steven Ltd. (SHOO - $0.28 to $39.15), as call volume has risen to 1,577 contracts in morning trading, 100x the average volume and 4x the put volume. Traders are most active in the February 20th, 2026, expiration, particularly at the 40.00 strike call where over 1,200 contracts have traded through multiple block trades. Most of these trades were buys with prices at an average price of $0.50 when the bid/ask was $0.30 x $0.65, slightly above the mid-price. There were only 254 contracts of open interest, so we know this represents new positioning (suggesting bullish intent). Shares of SHOO have recovered lately, rallying back from a near-term low price of $33.89, set on February 6th.

Today's Bearish Activity

Shares of Palo Alto Networks Inc. (PANW - $13.54 to $149.96) are down over 8.00% today after the company released positive Q2 earnings results that were overshadowed by a forecast for adjusted annual earnings that were weaker than anticipated. Palo Alto Networks reported Q2 EPS of $1.03, topping estimates for $0.94, and revenue of $2.59 billion, in line with estimates. However, investors appear to be reacting more to the company's forward guidance that came below estimates.

Palo Alto announced that its annual adjusted EPS would be between $3.65 to $3.70, down from its prior estimate of $3.87. The company also expects full-year revenue of $11.28 billion to $11.31 billion, it said, beating Wall Street estimates of $10.5 billion. For the upcoming quarter, Q3, the company expects adjusted EPS of $0.78 to $0.80, down from initial estimates of $0.92. This is based off revenue expectations for $2.94 to $2.95 billion, above analyst estimates of $2.6 billion, per Bloomberg.

A few analysts have lowered their price targets, following the report, including Needham (to $200 from $230), Morgan Stanley (to $223 from $245), and Scotiabank (to $180 from $228).

Option trading in PANW currently stands at 79,795 contracts, 11x the average daily volume with calls and puts basically even. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

February 20th, 2026, 144.00 put accounted for 3,378 contracts; open interest is 348contracts.
February 20th, 2026, 140.00 put accounted for 3,123 contracts; open interest is 2,347 contracts.
February 20th, 2026, 152.50 call accounted for 2,599 contracts; open interest is 65 contracts.

New 52-week lows (66 new lows today): Recursion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (RXRX - $0.08 to $3.38), Hims & Hers Health Inc. (HIMS - $0.08 to $16.19), Fiverr International Ltd. (FVRR - $0.91 to $12.19), Similarweb Ltd. (SMWB - $1.40 to $2.50)

Notable Put Activity

There is unusual put activity today in EQT Corp. (EQT + $0.90 to $58.65). This activity equates to over 35,911 put contracts, 34x average daily put volume and 9x call volume. One massive block trade in the March 20th, 2026, expiration accounted for nearly all the volume. Traders sold 34,320 each of the March 50.00 strike puts in a single transaction, collecting $0.34 when the bid/ask was $0.29 x $0.68. There were already 14,368 contracts of open interest at the strike, so this appears to be an addition to a previous short put position (suggesting neutral to bullish sentiment). The 50.00 strike would also represent the near-term low price for the shares set back in mid-January. Shares of EQT are up slightly today, after the company announced adjusted earnings yesterday that beat analyst estimates.

Unusual activity has also been detected in Rio Tinto (RIO + $3.09 to $99.97), as put volume stands at 14,675 contracts, 15x average volume and 8x call volume, in morning trading. Almost half of the volume can be attributed to a large put vertical that traded in the May 15th, 2026, expiration month. Traders bought 3,000 of the 90.00/80.00 put vertical spreads (6,000 total contracts) through multiple block trades, paying an average price of $2.25. There were a collective of 996 contracts of open interest between the two strikes, so this appears to be new positioning. Given the rapid ascent in RIO shares, up 25% year-to-date, this trade could represent a hedge to protect a long share position.

Gauging Volatility

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX – 1.56 to 18.73) is down by 7.69%, as equity markets are higher in late morning trading (DJI + 283, SPX + 60, COMPX + 304). VIX movement has occurred within a wider range today (the intraday range is 18.48 to 20.34). The highest volume contract is currently March 18th, 2026, 35.00 call (volume is 90,467 vs. open interest of 363,184).

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