Upbeat music plays.
[Screen shows “Weekly Market Outlook with Jeffrey Kleintop”]
[Jeff holds up an illustration of Fed Chair Jay Powell}
From central bank meetings on interest rates in the U.S. and U.K. to trade data for March and April along with key earnings reports, I’m Jeff Kleintop with what you need to know for the week ahead.
On Wednesday, as the Vatican conclave to elect a new pope begins, the Fed will also be sending the market some smoke signals with a rate decision and Chairman Powell’s news conference. Fed officials are expected to hold rates steady. Markets may further dial back their rate cut expectations, after cutting expectations for 4 more rate cuts this year to 3 after Friday’s jobs report.
[Jeff holds up an illustration of the flag for the UK and the word “UK”]
Now, the Bank of England will probably cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. Dropping the word “gradual” from the guidance would be the easiest way to signal the door is open to back-to-back cuts over the summer.
[Jeff holds up an illustration of President Trump’s hairstyle]
Now with tariffs on the minds of central bankers, on Tuesday we get the March U.S. trade data and on Friday we get April's trade data for China. China's trade report for April will probably show an initial hit from its escalating trade war with the US. Shipping data suggests that a drop in shipments to the U.S. didn't occur until the final 10 days of the month, suggesting the full impact of tariffs not may show up until the May data is reported.
In other data from China this week, lending growth in China is expected by economists to be 6% higher than in the first four months of the year compared to last year, reflecting China’s focus on using domestic stimulus to offset export weakness.
[Jeff holds up an illustration of a pie chart with a breakdown of costs with the words “taxes, labor, materials and expenses”]
Now we're now past the peak of earnings reports for the first quarter, but some major companies are still set to report this week and may offer guidance on how tariffs may be impacting their businesses. Disney earnings may show if worsening sentiment toward the U.S. has started to hit its theme park and cruise businesses amid a fall in visitor arrivals to the US and global boycotts of American products. In its report for the quarter, Ford may detail the how the increase in costs resulting from the tariffs is affecting their business.
[Jeff holds up sign saying "Thank You"]
Thanks for watching.
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