Weekly Trader's Outlook

If you read the last week's blog, you might recall that I had a "Breakout" forecast for this week, which I defined as a 2.0% or greater move in the S&P 500 index (SPX), either higher or lower, by today. At the time of this writing the SPX is on track to be down roughly 2.0% for the week. The SPX bounced on Monday/Tuesday of this week, which put the index at the underside of it's 200-day SMA, but subsequently turned lower and is falling to a fresh seven-month low today. Monday's bounce was driven an announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump that he ordered the military to postpone strikes on Iran's power plants and energy infrastructure for five days to allow for negotiations. Yesterday, Trump said that he is extending the five-day pause on strikes to April 6, which he said was at the request of the Tehran government, so that negotiations can continue. However, the price of WTI Crude Oil is up 5% to nearly $100/barrel today and stocks are down 1.50% in response. There has been a flurry of headlines around the Iran war this week, which included the U.S sending a 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran via Pakistan, and Iran's subsequent rejection of that plan, so It's not entirely clear where negotiations stand. However, it seems apparent to Wall Street that the longer the war persists, and the longer oil prices remain elevated, the more likely the global economy will be negatively impacted.

Outside of geopolitics, Treasury yields continued to march higher this week and several key yield levels on the curve were tested earlier today – 4.0% on the two-year, 4.50% on the 10-year, and 5.0% on the 30-year (more on this in the "Economic Data, Rates & the Fed" section below). The technicals experienced additional deterioration, and the PHLX Semiconductor index (SOX) is threatening to close below its 100-day SMA for the first time since Liberation Day (more on this in the "Technical Take" section below).

At the time of this writing (2:45 p.m. ET) stocks remain under pressure across the board and are trading near the lows of the session (DJI - 698, SPX - 92, $COMP - 410, RUT - 37). WTI crude approaching $100/barrel today appears to be contributing to additional late-day selling, and with so much uncertainty around Iran, traders appear inclined to reduce exposure heading into the weekend. Next week will be a holiday-shortened week due to Good Friday, but the economic calendar lists the monthly jobs report that same Friday, so it appears investors will have to wait until the following Monday to react. However, I'm not sure if anything other than the status of the Iran war and oil prices will matter to investors. I'm also keeping an eye on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which is over 31 at the time of this writing, which suggests higher investor concern and higher volatility expectations. Technically, we are near-term oversold, but there has also been some technical damage as several key support levels were violated this week (see "Technical Take" section below). In a more "normal" market environment, I would likely have a bearish outlook for next week given the bearish technicals, but the fate of the markets appears to be tied to Iran and the trajectory of oil prices. And "if" there is an agreed-upon ceasefire between the U.S./Iran, or a substantial de-escalation let's say, it seems near certain that stocks will rally substantially, especially given their current oversold status. Since it's impossible to predict if/when that will occur, I'm providing a "Volatile" forecast for next week.

• Monday (March 30): no reports
• Tuesday (March 31): Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, FHFA Housing Price Index, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
• Wednesday (April 1): ADP Employment Change, Construction Spending, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, ISM Manufacturing Index, MBA Mortgage Applications Index
• Thursday (April 2): Business Inventories, Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Factory Orders, Initial Claims
• Friday (April 3): Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment, Average Hourly Earnings, Average Workweek, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

• Monday (March 30): Aura Biosciences Inc. (AURA), Bicara Therapeutics Inc. (BCAX), Fermi Inc. (FRMI), ICON PLC (ICLR), Maze Therapeutics Inc. (MAZE), Progress Software Corp. (PRGS), Rezolve AI PLC (RZLV), USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR)
• Tuesday (March 31): Chagee Holdings Ltd. (CHA), FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS), McCormick & Company (MKC), nCino Inc. (NCNO), Nike Inc. (NKE), PVH Corp. (PVH)
• Wednesday (April 1): Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (CALM), Conagra Brands Inc. (CAG), Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. (LW), MSC Industrial Direct Co. (MSM), NovaGold Resources Inc. (NG), RH Inc. (RH), UniFirst Corp. (UNF)
• Thursday (April 2): Acuity Inc. (AYI), AngioDynamics Inc. (ANGO), Lindsay Corp. (LNN)
• Friday (April 3): Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ)

There was a light dose of economic data for markets to digest this week, and the signals were relatively weak. Perhaps some softness in the data is expected given the heightened uncertainty surrounding the Iran war—S&P Services Purchasing Mangers' Index (PMI) fell to an 11-month low, construction spending fell, consumer sentiment fell to a four-month low, and the Atlanta Fed lowered its "Nowcast" for Q1 gross domestic product (GDP). On the plus side, the S&P Manufacturing PMI notably improved and Weekly Claims remain subdued. Here's a breakdown of the reports:

• S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI: Climbed to 52.4 from 51.6 in February and above the 51.3 expected. New Orders rose the most since October 2025, which was driven by stabilization in export demand.
• S&P Global U.S. Services PMI: Eased to 51.1 from 51.7 in February, which represents an 11-month low.
• Construction spending: -0.3% vs. +0.3% expected.
• Pending Home Sales: Increased by 1.8% from the prior month, which was well above the -0.7% expected but down 0.8% on a YoY basis.
• Productivity - Revised: Slowed to 1.8% from 2.8% in Q4, which was below the 2.0% economists had expected.
• Unit Labor Costs: Increased at a 4.4% rate in Q4, which was above the 3.5% economists had expected.
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final: Consumer sentiment fell 6% from the prior month to 53.3, which was below the 55.5 economists had expected and the lowest reading since December 2025. One-year ahead inflation expectations jumped to 3.8% from 3.4% in February, while five-year inflation expectations eased to 3.2% from 3.3% last month.
• EIA Crude Oil Inventories: +6.93M barrels.
• EIA Natural Gas Inventories: -54 bcf.
• Initial Jobless Claims: Initial applications for U.S. jobless benefits increased 5K from last week to 210K, which was slightly above the 207K economists had expected. Continuing Claims decreased 32K from the prior week to a seasonally adjusted 1.819M.
• The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow "nowcast" for Q1 GDP was revised down to 2.0% on Monday from 2.3% last Friday.

U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise this week, and the yield curve experienced some additional flattening. What's interesting is there were several key levels on the curve that were met with some buying earlier today—two-year yields briefly traded above the 4.0% level (4.027% intraday high), 10-year yields nearly hit 4.50% (4.484% intraday high), and 30-year yields nearly touched the 5.0% mark (4.999% intraday high). All three have subsequently backed off those key levels. Compared to last Friday, two-year Treasury yields are jumping by ~5 basis points (3.934% vs. 3.883%), 10-year yields are rising ~4 basis points (4.424% vs. 4.394%), while 30-year yields are seeing a slight uptick (4.951% vs. 4.947%).

While market expectations around the Federal Reserve's next move are still leaning on the "hike" side, there was some backing off from that potential outcome this week. Per Bloomberg, the probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting is down to 9% from 23%, September is down to 25% from 32%, and October currently stands at 32% from 45% (all week-over-week).

The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX), which has been the symbol of the "AI infrastructure" play, is coming up on the radar today because the index is threatening to close below its 100-day SMA for the first time since the "Liberation Day" sell-off from last year. Notice on the chart below how the index bounced twice off this moving average (the green arrows) and appears to be resolving a one-month consolidation phase to the downside. Chip leader Nvidia Corp. (NVDA - $3.33 to $167.91) dropped below its 200-day SMA last Friday and is on track to close below $170.00 today, which has been a key support level over the last five months. The technical translation is bearish.

Near-term technical translation: bearish

Last Friday, I highlighted the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW) since it was testing support at its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). On Monday, the SPXEW bounced off this long-term moving average (which was bullish), but has since come back down to re-test it, and potentially may close below it today. From a bullish perspective, the SPXEW: a) closed below the 200-day SMA last Friday and bounced the following Monday, so even if it closes below it again today, another bounce next week is a possibility; and b) has not moved below last Friday's intraday low (7,652). From a bearish perspective, a re-test of support is not uncommon, but not necessarily bullish (especially if there are multiple "support re-tests"), and keep in mind that the other major indices have already dropped below their respective 200-day SMAs. I don't have the luxury of seeing where this index closes today, but assuming it closes below its 200-day SMA, my technical assessment is bearish.

Near-term technical translation: bearish

The Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index is down 6% week-over-week, bitcoin is down 6% and ether is down 7% through the time of writing this on Friday.

Adoption is a key long-term driver of bitcoin's price, and comparing it with other technology S-curves helps put its trajectory into context. Relative to past technologies, bitcoin has been adopted faster than both the internet and mobile phones, according to data from Token Terminal. Mobile phones themselves spread more quickly than the internet because consumers were already familiar with telephones, which lowered barriers to adoption of the newer technology.

A similar dynamic applies to bitcoin. The concept of digital money predated its launch. Credit and debit cards had already reduced the need for cash in everyday transactions, a trend reinforced by the rise of the internet and ecommerce. Traditional currencies were routinely transacted over digital networks; bitcoin simply introduced a native digital currency of its own. This familiarity likely contributed to bitcoin's faster adoption relative to earlier technologies. Its launch in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis may have further strengthened the appeal of an alternative monetary system.

One of the most consensus narratives in digital asset investing is that the passing of the CLARITY Act may open the doors for institutional investors, resulting in a new flood of capital into supply-constrained assets like bitcoin. This follows a narrative that began several years ago relating to spot exchange-traded products (ETPs). The view at that time was that spot ETPs would usher in new institutional capital as major brokerages allowed clients to invest in these products. Since 2017, adoption, as measured by year-over-year growth in bitcoin addresses, has grown at a median rate of 17%. That growth rate steadily declined as bitcoin has matured as an asset. Since spot ETPs launched in early 2024, this metric declined from 17% to a low of 4% in May 2025, though it does not capture new investors who added exposure through ETPs.

While ETPs certainly did help with adoption, based on previous technology S-curves, forward adoption may grow at declining growth rates, contrary to the narrative of institutional adoption sustainably increasing growth rates. Institutions can already access cryptocurrencies through spot ETPs and derivatives, both of which fall under existing regulatory frameworks. Hedge funds currently represent 28% of the ownership of Blackrock's spot bitcoin ETP. While new investors may enter the market, it may not result in the same flood of capital that followed the launch of spot ETPs. That said, in momentum driven investing, a narrative may be more powerful than facts, and the narrative of institutional adoption post CLARITY Act could potentially reignite upward momentum into the crypto market.

The Bloomberg chart below shows the current percentage of members within the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq Composite (CCMP), and Russell 2000 (RTY) that are trading above their respective 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). In short, stocks are on track for weekly losses, but market breadth was little changed. Part of the reason for this is because the after a roll-over in breadth like we've witnessed, there are less and less stocks to fall below their 200-day SMA. Compared to last Friday's, the SPX (white line) breadth eased to 47.29% from 48.30%, the CCMP (blue line) is essentially unchanged at 35.74% vs. 35.49%, while the RUT (red line) ticked up to 48.57% from 47.04% (all week-over-week).

Market breadth attempts to capture individual stock participation within an overall index, which can help convey underlying strength or weakness of a move or trend. Typically, broader participation suggests healthy investor sentiment and supportive technicals. There are many data points to help convey market breadth, such as advancing vs. declining issues, percentage of stocks within an index that are above or below a longer-term moving average, or new highs vs. new lows.

This Week's Notable 52-week Highs (48 today): Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM - $3.79 to $113.46), Ciena Corp. (CIEN + $11.61 to $399.40), Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL - $2.71 to $173.11), Lumentum Holdings Inc.  (LITE + $29.70 to $718.50), New York Times Company (NYT - $0.41 to $82.55), Ubiquiti Networks Inc. (UI + $1.76 to $779.85)

This Week's Notable 52-week Lows (178 today): Abbott Laboratories Inc. (ABT - $0.70 to $103.87), Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE - $6.25 to $234.63), Chemed Inc. (CHE - $0.18 to $371.77), Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ - $4.08 to $354.46), Mercado Libre Inc. (MELI - $27.83 to $1,603.15), SAP Ag (SAP - $2.71 to $164.37)