Today's Options Market Update

A triple-header awaits as Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), and Tesla (TSLA) report after the close, keeping focus on data centers, the cloud, and AI spending. Hopes for solid results helped the S&P 500 Index surge to a new record high yesterday and climb again early today, threatening 7,000 for the first time. Collectively, Magnificent Seven profits are projected to grow by nearly 17%, likely making this the most important stretch of earnings season so far. Strong numbers that don't lift share prices could signal fading enthusiasm for AI leaders.

The earnings bonanza comes after the Federal Reserve delivers its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET followed by Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference. Though no rate change is expected, any updates to the statement will be scrutinized, and so will Powell's tone. This meeting includes new voters and might see dissents in both directions. "The real drama is likely to be at the press conference where Powell will no doubt be questioned about the administration's actions against him and Fed Governor Lisa Cook," said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "The attacks on Fed members raises the issue of whether policy makers can continue to do their jobs without political interference. How Powell responds to those questions will probably be the highlight of the day."

On Tuesday, info tech led all sectors, and tech swung the baton again this morning amid chip strength. Treasury yields were stable heading into the Fed meeting.  "We believe that given all the uncertainty, it will translate to less downside for longer-term yields," said Cooper Howard, director, fixed income strategy at SCFR. "Concerns over the Japanese yen, political instability, and the composition of the Fed, just to highlight a few issues, will all likely translate into an elevated term premium which should keep yields elevated."

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is higher by 3 bps to 4.26%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is higher by 0.27% to 96.48.

The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) is up 4.30% to 17.05.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is higher by 0.56% to $62.74/barrel

Bitcoin (BTC) is higher by 0.17% to $89,540.

Ethereum (ETH) is lower by 0.65% to $3,002.

Shares of Seagate Technology (STX + $61.47 to $433.23) are up over 16.00% today, trading at a 52-week high, after the computer hardware and storage company's Q2 results beat expectations and it gave a positive outlook. Seagate reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $3.11, topping analyst estimates of $2.83, up 53% YOY. Driving these profits were Q2 revenues which reached $2.83 billion, beating estimates of $2.75 billion, up 22% YOY. Seagate also reported adjusted gross margins of 42.2%, much higher than the 35.5% from last year, besting estimates of 41%. Going forward, the company forecasts a Q3 EPS range of $3.20 to $3.40 and guides revenue of $2.8 billion to $3.00 billion. Seagate shares are up over 53% year-to-date, joining the rally in memory and storage stocks that continues this year, after a strong 2025.

Multiple analysts have raised their price targets, following the report, including Wells Fargo to $450 from $360, Cantor Fitzgerald to $500 from $400, and BofA to $450 from $400.

Option trading in STX currently stands at 46,158 contracts, 11x the average daily volume with calls and puts basically even. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

• January 30th, 2026, 390.00 put accounted for 2,449 contracts; open interest is 18 contracts.
• January 30th, 2026, 490.00 call accounted for 1,799 contracts; open interest is 1,542 contracts.
• January 30th, 2026, 400.00 put accounted for 1,515 contracts; open interest is 19 contracts.

New 52-week highs (406 new highs today):  Micron Technology (MU + $20.06 to $430.31), Denison Mines Corp. (DNN + $0.21 to $4.15), Vale S.A. (VALE + $0.20 to $16.64), Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR + $0.20 to $15.22)

Unusual call activity is noted today in Adams Trust Inc. (ADAM + $0.10 to $8.51), as call volume currently stands at 25,009 contracts, 1,500x the average daily volume. Nearly all of the activity can be attributed to trades in the February 20th, 2026, expiration month, specifically at the 10.00 strike, where over 22,000 contracts have traded hands, primarily on the sell side. Traders, through multiple block orders, have sold the 10.00 strike calls with prices ranging from $0.10 - $0.15, the bid at the time. With only 234 contracts of open interest, we know these represent new positions (suggesting neutral to bearish sentiment), Shares of ADAM have rallied over 18% year-to-date and are trading just below their 52-week high price of $8.76, set just two weeks ago.

Another name exhibiting unusual call activity today is Lloyds Banking Group (LYG - $0.07 to $5.78), as call volume has risen to 20,883 contracts in morning trading, 140x the average volume and 100x the put volume. Traders are active in the month of July 17th, 2026, expiration, particularly at the 6.00 strike, where over 20,000 contracts have traded. Three large block trade purchases make up a bulk of that volume, as traders have paid between $0.45 - $0.50 for the calls. With only 1,529 contracts of open interest, we believe these represent new positions (suggesting bullish intent). Shares of LYG set a 52-week high price of $5.87 during yesterday's trading hours.

Shares of Amphenol Corp. (APH - $19.91 to $146.34) are down over 11.00% today despite beating Q4 adjusted EPS and revenue estimates. The electronics and fiber optic company also issued Q1 revenue guidance ahead of consensus. For Q4, the company reported adjusted EPS of $0.97 from net sales of $6.44 billion, and for Q1 Amphenol expects adjusted EPS of $0.91 to $0.93 from net sales of $6.90 to $7.00 billion, all above estimates. Some analysts have commented that the sales guidance wasn't strong enough, suggesting a pull-forward demand to the current quarter. That includes ISI Evercore which said the stock's decline reflects how "the beat isn't big enough," per Bloomberg.

Perhaps today's sell-off could also be reflective of the run-up in share price of 20% year to date prior to yesterday's announcement. Just yesterday, the shares set a 52-week high price of $167.04.

Option trading in APH currently stands at 30,265 contracts, 7x the average daily volume with calls and puts basically even. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

• February 20th, 2026, 155.00 put accounted for 2,065 contracts; open interest is 2,452 contracts.
• February 20th, 2026, 160.00 call accounted for 1,787 contracts; open interest is 1,688 contracts.
• May 15th, 2026, 145.00 put accounted for 1,534 contracts; open interest is 96 contracts.

New 52-week lows (73 new lows today): Calmedica Inc. (CALC - $3.97 to $1.15), Paypal Holdings (PYPL - $1.04 to $54.47), Pinterest Inc. (PINS - $0.47 to $22.97), Humana Inc. (HUM - $12.64 to $195.29)

There is unusual put activity today in the GE Vernova Inc. (GEV + $1.79 to $694.49). This activity equates to over 14,125 put contracts, 8x average daily put volume. A large block trade in the March 20th, 2026, expiration accounted for about 25% of that volume. Traders sold 3,420 of the March 550.00 puts in a single transaction for $5.76 when the bid/ask was $5.30 x $8.70. The bid/ask is wide due to less liquidity in those options. Open interest at that strike was only 114 contracts, so we know this represents a new position (suggesting neutral to bullish intent). The 550.00 strike level is just below the 200-day SMA which hasn't been breached since early April when GEV was trading at a 52-week low price of $252.25.

Unusual activity has also been detected in Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP - $0.40 to $27.19), as put volume stands at 43,869 contracts, 14x average volume and 100x call volume, in morning trading. Nearly all of the volume can be attributed to multiple block purchase orders in the March 20th, 2026, expiration month. Traders have transacted over 40,000 contracts at the 26.00 strike, mostly on the buy side with prices ranging from $0.53 to $0.55. There were already 30,675 contracts of open interest at the strike, so these could be additions to those positions (suggesting bearish intent). Interestingly, these March contracts capture the potential impact from the company's current earnings release date, set for February 25th. Shares of KDP are basically flat year-to-date but are well off their 52-week high price of $36.12, set last April. 

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX + 0.70 to 17.05) is up by 4.30%, as equity markets are mixed in morning trading (DJI + 43, SPX - 5, COMPX - 9). VIX movement has occurred within a narrow range today (the intraday range is 16.05 to 17.18). The highest volume contract is currently the April 15th, 2026, 47.50 call (volume is 45,021 vs. open interest of 123,622).