Today's Options Market Update

Stocks Lower on Heightened Geopolitical Risks

January 20, 2026 Nathan Peterson

Stocks are starting the week off under pressure after U.S. President Trump vowed tariff increases should interference arise in his push for Greenland.

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Stocks were set to tumble Tuesday after President Donald Trump escalated his push for control of Greenland, threatening tariffs against a number of European countries, triggering pledges of retaliation. Nasdaq futures fell nearly 2%, while the dollar and bonds slumped. The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street's "fear gauge," jumped nearly 8%, topping the 20 mark.

Earnings season picks up again this week, with Netflix (NFLX), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Intel (INTC) among the big names slated to release. On the economic side, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, or PCE, comes out Thursday. A decision on Trump's tariff regime from the U.S. Supreme Court could come as early as today.

Markets closed slightly lower Friday after spending much of the day in positive territory. Tech stocks held up well though, with chipmakers again posting solid gains. Treasuries fell, pushing yields to the highest level since September, after President Trump expressed reluctance to make Kevin Hassett the next Fed chairman. Small cap stocks outperformed, with the Russell 2000® Index eking out a gain at the end of a strong week. The small cap index has beaten the S&P 500 index for 11 consecutive days.

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research

Morning Rush

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is higher by ~4 basis point to 4.271%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is lower by 0.921 to 98.472.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is higher by 1.95% to $60.60/barrel.

Gold prices have traded in a range of $4,622.20-$4,756.60 and were last seen trading higher by ~3.07% to $4,736.70/oz.

Natural Gas prices have traded in a range of $3.38-3.99 today and were last seen trading higher by 21.82% to $3.78.

Bitcoin (BTC) is lower by ~2.17% to $90,588.54 today.

Today's Bullish Activity

Shares of Intel Corp. (INTC + $2.30 to $49.26) are bucking today’s sell-off after the chip maker received a couple of analyst upgrades earlier this morning – Seaport Global went to “Buy” from “Neutral” with a $65.00 price target, while HSBC revised their rating to “Hold” from “Reduce” and hiked their price target to $50.00 from $26.00. Analysts at Seaport Global cited strong signals for Intel’s PC products and an improving outlook for Intel Foundry. Analysts at HSBC also cited improvements at Intel Foundry and believe agentic AI is a significant catalyst for server CPU demand, which could benefit Intel. Calls are outpacing puts nearly 3:1 with the January 23^rd50.00 call seeing the most action from traders (volume is 19,858).

Also trading to the upside this morning is Ramaco Resources Inc. (METC + $1.55 to $22.44) after Jefferies upgraded the coal producer to “Buy” from “Hold” while lowering their price target on the stock to $30.00 from $33.00. Analysts at Jefferies cited potential upside risk to their coal price assumptions and ongoing and view escalating geopolitical risks related to critical minerals as a positive factor. Calls are outnumbering puts ~4:1 with the February 20^th 25.00 call being the highest volume contract (volume is 413).

New 52-week highs (109 new highs today): Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM + $10.00 to $207.48), Micron Technology Inc. (MU + $6.82 to $369.57), Nova Ltd. (NVMI + $11.99 to $457.69)

Notable Call Activity

Some unusual call activity (~40:1 calls over puts) is being seen in Day One Biopharmaceuticals Inc. (DAWN + $1.40 to $11.56) which is primarily driven by activity on the April 17^th 11.00 call. Volume on this contract is 21,195 versus open interest of 79, so it’s likely that nearly all the volume represents fresh positioning. The bulk of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were bought at various times for between $2.60-3.20 each, which suggests bullish intent.

Today's Bearish Activity

Shares of 3M Co. (MMM - $11.69 to $156.11) are moving lower this morning after the industrial conglomerate reported Q4 adjusted earnings of $1.83 (40.03 beat) on Q4 revenue that increased 2.1% year-over-year (YoY) to $6.0B (slightly below the $6.012B expected). Looking ahead, the company said that 2026 adjusted EPS is expected to come in a range of $8.50-8.70 versus the $8.64 FactSet consensus estimate. Call are outnumbering puts ~3:2 with the January 23^rd 180.00 call leading the way (volume is 1,035).

Also trading to the downside today is Philip Morris International Inc. (PM - $4.88 to $168.75) after Jefferies downgraded the tobacco maker to “Hold” from “Buy” while cutting their price target on the stock to $180.00 from $220.00, citing limited growth opportunities. Calls are outnumbering puts ~3:2, but the June 18^th 160.00 put is the highest volume contract (volume is 698).

New 52-week lows (124 new lows today): Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE - $5.60 to $290.52), Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR - $3.61 to $186.15), Domino’s Pizza Inc. (DPZ - $7.02 to $393.26)

Notable Put Activity

Some unusual put activity (~20:1 puts over calls) is being seen in Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. (HPP - $0.73 to $9.23) as option traders primarily target the January 2028 7.50 put. Volume on this contract is 2,251 versus open interest of 0, so we know that all the volume represents new positioning (assuming no day trades). The bulk of the transactions consisted of various mid-sized blocks that were bought around the same at the ask price of $2.50 each, which suggests bearish intent.

Volume Signals

DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc. (DMAC - $0.17 to $7.40): Option volume is running at ~62x the daily average on this clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company as option traders primarily target the February 20^th 10.00 call. Volume on this contract is 1,600 versus open interest of 5, so it’s likely that nearly all the volume represents new positioning. The bulk of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were bought at various times for between $0.30-0.40 each, which suggests bullish intent.

Magnite Inc. (MGNI + $0.14 to $14.53): Option volume is running at ~47x the daily average on this omni-channel sell-side advertising platform as option traders primarily target the February 20^th 17.00 call. Volume on this contract is 12,135 versus open interest of 2,523, so we know that the volume primarily represents new positioning. The bulk of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were bought at various times for between $0.35-$0.40 each (including a 5,570 contract block that was bought at the ask price of $0.40), which suggests bullish intent.

Global Payments Inc. (GPN - $0.22 to $73.58): Option volume is running at ~18x the daily average on this payment technology company as option traders primarily target the July 17^th 90.00 call. Volume on this contract is 3,831 versus open interest of 0, so we know that all the volume represents new positioning (assuming no day trades). The bulk of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were bought at various times for between $3.30-3.50 each, which suggests bullish intent.

Gauging Volatility

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX + 0.15 to 18.99) has been on both sides of the unchanged line today (the intraday range is 18.64-20.69), as equity markets are lower across the board around the midday mark (DJI - 560, SPX - 85, $COMP - 343). VIX option volume is above average today at 963,836 contracts, and calls are outnumbering put better than 2:1 s so far today.

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