Today's Options Market Update

A glimmer of hope for de-escalation progress has crude oil down 3% and stocks slightly higher early. Pakistan delivered a 15-point peace plan from the U.S. to Iran, The New York Times reported, though conflict continued to rage.  Iran denies any negotiations and said it won't accept U.S. efforts toward a ceasefire, CNBC reported just before the open. On a more positive note, Iran said it would allow "non-hostile" ships to traverse the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through that key energy chokepoint remains thin, according to media reports, but a small number of vessels went through.

Back home, yesterday's two-year Treasury note auction got a poor reception, sending short-term yields to eight-month highs on ideas that investors want higher rates to invest in U.S. assets. Federal Reserve speakers return after last week's rate pause, with Fed Gov. Stephen Miran scheduled this afternoon. Yesterday's early March PMI data showed slowdowns in many countries, something central banks likely noticed. "The war is starting to make its mark on the global economy," said Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR).

Tuesday saw Wall Street indexes fall again as crude climbed and war-related inflation concerns festered. "Higher energy costs are already raising the cost of inputs and transportation," warned Michelle Gibley, director of international equity research and strategy at SCFR. "The longer energy supplies are disrupted and prices stay elevated, the more inflation could become engrained in inflation expectations and change corporate and consumer behavior." Speaking of inflation, import prices rose 1.3% month over month in February, the U.S. government said Wednesday, the largest increase since March 2022 and likely sparked by tariffs.

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is lower by 7 bps to 4.32%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is higher by 0.11% to 99.54.

The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) is lower by 5.38% to 25.50.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is lower by 2.25% to $90.27/barrel.

Bitcoin (BTC) is up by 3.27% to $71,620.

Ethereum (ETH) is up by 3.10% to $2,181.

Shares of Arm Holdings PLC (ARM + $22.57 to $157.53) are higher today by over 16.00%, their biggest intra-day rally in over a year, after the British company reported it will sell its own chips for the first time, with Meta Platforms Inc. as the first major customer, and expects to generate about $15 billion annually within five years. OpenAI, Cloudfare, and SAP are companies that have also expressed interest in purchasing the first round of chips.

Arm's new chip, called an AGI CPU, will have as many as 136 cores and draw 300 watts of electricity, and will be produced by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., per Bloomberg. The company said it expects revenue from the new chip business to surpass sales from its current operations, pushing total sales to roughly $25 billion within five years, five times its current level.

The news has led to a few price target hikes from Wall Street analysts, including RBC (to $175 from $130), Evercore ISI (to $227 from $170), and Wells Fargo (to $165 from $150).

Option trading in ARM currently stands at 81,457 contracts, 17x the average daily volume with calls outpacing puts 3:1. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

• March 27th, 2026, 155.00 call accounted for 5,328 contracts; open interest is 1,063 contracts.
• March 27th, 2026, 160.00 call accounted for 4,620 contracts; open interest is 303 contracts.
• April 17th, 2026, 200.00 call accounted for 4,072 contracts; open interest is 616 contracts.

New 52-week highs (115 new highs today): Terns Pharmaceutical (TERN + $2.68 to $52.68), Satellogic Inc. (SATL + $0.87 to $6.25), Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL + $3.80 to $180.66), Fastly Inc. (FSLY + $1.93 to $30.13)

Unusual call activity is noted today in Terns Pharmaceutical (TERN + $2.68 to $52.68), as call volume currently stands at 45,002 contracts, 160x the average daily volume and 11x put volume. Activity is strongest in the May 15th, 2026, expiration month, particularly at the 55.00 strike calls where over 30,536 contracts have traded this morning. While trading has been two-sided, most of the action has been on the sell side. A few large block orders of over 3,000 contracts each executed early, with traders selling the 55.00 calls at $0.15, when the bid/ask was $0.15 x $0.20. These are new positions, given the open interest of 13 contracts. News emerged earlier this morning that Merck Co. was buying Kerns for a price of $6.7 billion, or $53.00 per share.

Another name exhibiting unusual call activity today is UBS Group (UBS + $1.25 to $38.24), as call volume has risen to 6,169 contracts in morning trading, 10x the average volume and 50x the put volume. Nearly all the volume can be attributed to the April 17th, 2026, expiration month, where the 40.00 and 42.50 calls strikes have generated a combined 5,000 contracts in morning trading. Traders have primarily been buyers of these strikes, particularly the 42.50 strike, as most orders have transacted on the offer price (suggesting bullish intent). This also seems to be news driven, as there are report that the Swiss government may pare down its plans for fresh capital requirements for its national banks.

Shares of On Holding AG (ONON - $3.84 to $35.75) are down over 9.50% today, trading near a 52-week low, after the company announced its current CEO Martin Hoffman would be stepping down. With the announcement, the company also stated that co-founders Caspar Coppetti and David Allemann would take over as co-chief executive officers in May. The company said the decision to appoint co-CEOs was designed to improve On's "entrepreneurial speed" and was made mutually, per Bloomberg.

Investors seem less enthusiastic about the decision, especially given the company's recent prediction that  sales this year would rise around 23% on a constant currency basis. That equates to revenue of at least 3.44 billion Swiss francs in 2026 at current exchange rates, which fell short of analysts' estimates. Shares of ONON were already down 15% year-to-date prior to the announcement of the C-Suite change.

Option trading in ONON currently stands at 16,028 contracts, 5x the average daily volume with calls outpacing puts 1.5:1. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:

• April 17th, 2026, 35.00 call accounted for 1,597 contracts; open interest is 3,814 contracts.
• April 17th, 2026, 36.50 call accounted for 1,511 contracts; open interest is zero contracts.
• March 20th, 2026, 20.00 put accounted for 19,115 contracts; open interest is 9,661 contracts.

New 52-week lows (84 new lows today): Alight Inc. (ALIT - $0.09 to $0.55), Adma Biologics (ADMA- $1.57 to $9.76), Conagra Brands Inc. (CAG - $0.40 to $15.16), General Mills (GIS - $0.96 to $35.84)

There is unusual put activity today in Arbor Realty Trust Inc. (ABR + $0.08 to $7.45). This activity equates to over 13,772 put contracts, 23x average daily put volume and 3x the call volume. Nearly all the put activity can be attributed to a large block sell orders in the October 16th, 2026, expiration month. Traders sold over 13,000 of the 6.00 strike puts at an average price of $0.61 when the bid/ask was $0.61 x $0.66. There were already 6,369 contracts of open interest, so this trade could be an addition to a short put position (suggesting neutral to bullish intent). Shares of ABR have been under pressure of late, falling over 40% from their October 52-week high price of $12.58. They are just slightly above their 52-week low price of $7.11, set last month prior to earnings.

Unusual activity has also been detected in KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE + $0.32 to $15.76), as put volume stands at 20,051 contracts, 104x average volume and 120x call volume, in morning trading. A large block order to buy 20,000 of the April 17th, 2026, expiration 13.00 strike puts transacted for a price of $0.12. This occurred when the bid/ask was $0.05 x $0.12. With only 342 contracts of open interest, these are likely new positions (suggesting bearish intent). Shares of BEKE hit a fresh 52-week low price of $15.18 just two days ago.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX - 1.45 to 25.50) is lower by 5.38% today, as equity markets are higher across the board morning trading (DJI + 230, SPX + 35, COMPX + 187). VIX movement has occurred within a narrower range today (the intraday range is 24.82 to 26.47). The highest volume contract is currently the October 21st, 2026, 50.00 call (volume is 80,000 vs. open interest of 951).