Today's Options Market Update

Stocks Off Lows as Trump Taps Warsh as Fed Chair

January 30, 2026 Joe Mazzola

Markets were down overnight but rebounded on Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair. The Producer Price Index puts inflation data in focus, landing above expectations.

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Investors awoke to a new Federal Reserve chairman nominee as President Trump named Kevin Warsh to take over in May from Jerome Powell. Warsh served on the Fed's Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011. Stocks fell steeply overnight but clawed back some losses after the news.

"Warsh was a hawk in his previous time at the Fed," said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research (SCFR). "The question is, will he change his views to please the president?" Trump has long pushed for lower rates, and may face a challenge as Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, posted he will oppose the nomination until the federal criminal probe into Powell is resolved.

Staying in Washington, a deal got forged last night between the White House and Senate Democrats to separate funding for Homeland Security from a massive bill that provides funding for other Cabinet agencies. Both bills require votes by the House, which won't be back until Monday—after today's shutdown deadline. "That may mean a brief shutdown that is mostly ignored, pending the House vote next week," said Michael Townsend, managing director of legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab. Still, it looks like one less thing to worry about. Add to the worry list today's wholesale inflation report, however, which was far worse than expected and appeared to push stocks down further, threatening this week's light gains.

On Thursday, Wall Street couldn't overcome dramatic selling in Microsoft (MSFT) and the software sector after earnings and guidance failed to impress. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq ended slightly to moderately lower after dramatic early drops. A few factors helped prevent a complete washout: big gains in the travel group after robust guidance from Southwest Airlines (LUV), solid earnings from IBM (IBM), AT&T (T), and Caterpillar (CAT), hopes a shutdown could be avoided, and momentum in the oil patch as crude prices rose on heightened Iran tensions.

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research

Morning Rush

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is higher by 1 bp to 4.24%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is higher by 0.68% to 96.94.

The CBOE Volatility Index^® (VIX) is up 6.69% to 18.01.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is lower by 1.18% to $64.66/barrel

Bitcoin (BTC) is higher by 0.89% to $83,640.

Ethereum (ETH) is lower by 3.00% to $2,725.

Today's Bullish Activity

Shares of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR + $10.06 to $157.82) are moving higher this morning after the data analytics firm reported Q4 adjusted earnings of $0.25 per share ($0.02 beat) on Q4 revenue that increased 70% year-over-year (YoY) to a record $1.407B (above the $1.328B expected). The company also issued upbeat guidance as Q1 revenue is expected to come in a range of $1.532-1.536B (vs. the $1.33B FactSet estimate), and full-year 2026 (FY26) revenue is expected to come in a range of $7.182-7.198B (vs. the $6.30B FactSet estimate). Calls and puts are trading roughly even with the February 6^th160.00 call seeing the most action from traders (volume is 48,482).

Also trading to the upside this morning is PepsiCo Inc. (PEP + $7.06 to $162.26) after the snack and beverage giant reported Q4 adjusted earnings of $2.26 per share ($0.02 beat) on Q4 revenue of $29.343B (above the $28.972B expected). The company also said that it will increase its annual dividend by 4% and announced a new $10B stock buyback program. Looking ahead, the company guided FY26 revenue to a range of $97.682-99.561B, which is above the $97.018B consensus estimate. Calls are outnumbering puts ~4:3 with the February 6^th 160.00 call leading the way (volume is 2,949).

New 52-week highs (329 new highs today): Bloom Energy Corp. (BE + $18.09 to $174.22), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT + $17.55 to $708.46), GE Vernova Inc. (GEV + $35.03 to $790.00)

Notable Call Activity

Unusual call activity is noted today in Lionsgate Studios Co. (LION - $0.04 to $9.45), as call volume currently stands at 10,543 contracts, 33x the average daily volume and 1000x the put volume. Most of the activity can be attributed to a large call vertical spread trade in the April 17th, 2026, expiration month. Traders bought the April 10.00/14.00 call vertical spread 4,000 times (8,000 total contracts). They financed the purchase of this call spread with sales of long call positions at the 7.50 strike in the March expiration. Basically, this was a rolling trade where traders moved their long strike from the March 7.50 call strike to the April 10.00 strike and used a sell of the 14.00 April strike to finish the package. This trade reduces delta exposure from the in-the-money March 7.50 calls while providing upside to the 14.00 strike in the April expiration. It's a trade that caps the upside while allowing the traders to maintain their bullish bias.

Another name exhibiting unusual call activity today is the Proshares Ultrashort Silver ETF (ZSL + $0.78 to $2.36), as call volume has risen to 230,363 contracts in morning trading, 4x the average volume and 10x the put volume. Traders are most active in the February 20th, 2026, expiration, particularly at the 2.00, 3.00, and 4.00 strike calls where over 120,000 contracts have traded, collectively. While trading has been on both the buy and sell sides, the largest block orders have been buys. This is a levered ETF, so percentage moves are amplified and volatility can be high, as shown by way of a 43% move in today's underlying price.

Today's Bearish Activity

Shares of PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL - $9.44 to $42.90) are gapping down to an eight-year low this morning after the digital payments company reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.23 ($0.05 miss) on Q4 revenue that increased 3.71% YoY to $8.676B (below the $8.80B FactSet consensus estimate). Following the results, the company said that current HP Chief Executive Enrique Lores will replace Alex Chriss as CEO, effective March 1st. Regarding guidance, PayPal said that Q1 adjusted EPS is expected to decline mid-single digits. Puts are outnumbering calls ~3:2 with the February 6^th 49.00 put being the highest volume contract (volume is 15,773).

Also trading to the downside today is Pfizer Inc. (PFE - $0.91 to $25.75) after the drug maker beat quarterly estimates but provided lackluster guidance earlier this morning. Pfizer reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.66 ($0.09 beat) on Q4 revenue of $17.56B (above the $16.85B expected). Looking ahead, the company said that FY26 adjusted EPS is expected to come in a range of $2.80-3.00 (vs. the $2.97 FactSet consensus estimate) on FY26 revenue that is expected to come in a range of $59.5-62.5B (vs. the $60.97B FactSet consensus estimate). Calls are outnumbering puts ~3:2, but the March 20^th 24.00 put is seeing the most action from traders (volume is 28,813).

New 52-week lows (203 new lows today): Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE - $16.28 to $277.10), FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS - $26.77 to $221.99), Salesforce Inc. (CRM - $12.53 to $198.28)

Notable Put Activity

There is unusual put activity today in Dayforce Inc. (DAY + $0.09 to $69.25). This activity equates to over 11,361 put contracts, 200x average daily put volume. Multiple large block trade in the February 20th, 2026, expiration have accounted for most of that volume. Traders are targeting the February 60.00 put strike and have purchased over 9,000 contracts with prices ranging from $0.15 to $0.25, primarily on the offer. With zero contracts of open interest, we know these are new positions (suggesting bearish intent). Dayforce announced back in August that it is set to be acquired by software investment firm Thoma Bravo in a deal that gives the workforce management company an enterprise value of $12.3 billion and will see it taken private.

Unusual activity has also been detected in Arbor Realty Trust Inc. (ABR - $0.28 to $7.60), as put volume stands at 22,473 contracts, 14x average volume and 22x call volume, in morning trading. Nearly all the volume can be attributed to multiple block trades in the January 30th, 2026, expiration month. These trades expire at today's close. The 7.50 strike is seeing significant volume today, over 21,000 contracts, with activity on both the buy and sell sides. Shares of ABR set a new 52-week low price of $7.50 earlier today, and traders are busy at that strike.

Gauging Volatility

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX + 1.13 to 18.01) is up by 6.69%, as equity markets are down across the board in early afternoon trading (DJI - 4, SPX - 52, COMPX - 264). VIX movement has occurred within a wider range today (the intraday range is 16.67 to 19.27). The highest volume contract is currently February 18th, 2026, 16.00 put (volume is 36,687 vs. open interest of 210,252).

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