Today's Options Market Update
Stocks Down, Yields Up as 130,000 Jobs Growth Surprises
The U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs in January, almost double the 70,000 expected, the government said today. Unemployment dipped to 4.3% from the prior 4.4%, and hourly earnings were also solid, up 0.4% from the prior month. Major indexes extended their earlier gains immediately after the nonfarm payrolls report, while Treasury yields quickly bounced from one-month lows.
"The market is aggressively pricing out rate cuts for this year after the jobs report," said Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. "The Fed looks vindicated in saying there has been some stabilization in the unemployment rate. The three-month average of nonfarm payrolls growth shifted up to 73,000 in January, the highest since February 2025."
Looking back at Tuesday, advancers easily outpaced decliners but the broader market sagged in tepid trading. Weak retail sales and worries about AI's impact on financial firms kept the pressure on. Jobs data dominates early today, but investors also scrutinize results from Shopify (SHOP) and Ford (F). Later today, stay tuned for Cisco (CSCO), a good barometer of general tech demand.
Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research
Morning Rush
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is unchanged at 4.16%.
The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is lower by 0.08% to 96.73.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) is down 0.84% to 17.64.
WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is higher by 1.81% to $65.12/barrel.
Bitcoin (BTC) is down by 3.53% to $66,505.
Ethereum (ETH) is down by 4.69% to $1,922.
Today's Bullish Activity
Shares of Vertiv Holdings Corp. (VRT + $40.21 to $239.86) are up over 20.00% today, on track for a record high close, after the digital infrastructure company reported higher Q4 profit and issued guidance above Wall Street estimates. Vertiv posted adjusted EPS of $1.36, above analyst estimates for EPS of $1.29. The company's net sales rose to $2.88 billion, up from $2.35 billion a year prior, roughly in line with analysts' expectations. Vertiv attributed its earnings beat to organic order growth of over 252%.
For the current quarter, Vertiv is projecting net sales of between $2.50 billion and $2.70 billion, with adjusted EPS between $0.95 and $1.01. Per Bloomberg, analysts were expecting $2.54 billion in net sales and EPS of $0.94. Vertiv is also forecasting full year net sales of $13.25 billion to $13.75 billion, with adjusted EPS between $5.97 and $6.07 a share. That represents an increase of around 43% year-over-year.
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Option trading in VRT currently stands at 108,657 contracts, 15x the average daily volume with puts outpacing calls 1.5:1. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:
- April 17th, 2026, 190.00 put accounted for 20,449 contracts; open interest is 94 contracts.
- March 20th, 2026, 190.00 put accounted for 8,333 contracts; open interest is 331 contracts.
- March 20th, 2026, 120.00 put accounted for 7,790 contracts; open interest is 9,998 contracts.
New 52-week highs (489 new highs today): Transocean Inc. (RIG + $0.43 to $5.88), Verizon Communication Inc. (VZ + $1.52 to $48.91), Pfizer Inc. (PFE + $0.25 to $27.86), Vertiv Holdings Corp. (VRT + $40.21 to $239.86)
Notable Call Activity
Unusual call activity is noted today in Quince Therapeutics (QNCX + $0.21 to $0.74), as call volume currently stands at 84,856 contracts, 95x the average daily volume and 25x the put volume. Most of the activity can be attributed to large block buy orders in the April 17th, 2026, expiration month, specifically at the 1.00 strike. Strike volume has totaled 70,119 contracts, with activity primarily skewed to the buy side, as the put/call ratio stands at 0.05. Traders paid $0.20 for the calls when the bid/ask was $0.15 x $0.20. With open interest of 26 contracts, we know this represents new positioning (suggesting bullish intent). Shares of QNCX have been extremely volatile of late. After hitting a 52-week high of $4.54 on December 12th, they cratered to $0.12 just last week. Bloomberg reported yesterday that Quince Therapeutics had engaged LifeSci Capital to explore strategic alternatives, including partnerships, joint ventures, mergers, acquisitions, licensing deals or other transactions.
Another name exhibiting unusual call activity today is Entegris Inc. (ENTG + $2.66 to $136.11), as call volume has risen to 7,450 contracts in morning trading, 6x the average volume and 150x the put volume. Traders are most active in the February 20th, 2026, expiration, particularly at the 150.00 strike call where over 6,400 contracts have traded through two large block trades. Traders sold those options at an average price of $0.62 when the bid/ask was $0.10 x $1.85, well below the midpoint. There were only 21 contracts of open interest, so we know this represents new positioning (suggesting neutral to bearish intent). Shares of ENTG hit a 52-week high of $138.99, earlier this morning.
Today's Bearish Activity
Shares of Mattel Inc. (MAT - $5.35 to $15.71) are plunging over 25.00% today, their biggest drop since 1999, after the toymaker reported holiday results that fell short of analysts' estimates and issued a 2026 forecast for lower profit. The company posted Q4 earnings, excluding some items, that totaled $0.39, well short of the $0.54 average of analysts' estimates. Sales grew to $1.77 billion, compared with estimates of $1.84 billion. Mattel cited a shortfall in December sales in the US as the culprit for the underwhelming results.
Going forward, Mattel forecasts sales to grow 3% to 6% in 2026, with gross margins of 50%, and EPS, excluding some items, of $1.18 to $1.30, down from $1.41 a share in 2025. All of these projections were below analysts' expectations.
Many analysts have lowered their price targets following the report, including JPMorgan (to $14 from $23), Morgan Stanley (to $18 from $22), and DA Davidson (to $18 from $25).
Option trading in MAT currently stands at 8,559 contracts, 8x the average daily volume with calls outpacing puts 2:1. Leading the way are the following trades, expirations, and strikes:
- February 20th, 2026, 16.00 call accounted for 1,186 contracts; open interest is 10 contracts.
- April 17th, 2026, 20.00 call accounted for 762 contracts; open interest is 198 contracts.
- February 20th, 2026, 14.00 put accounted for 346 contracts; open interest is nine contracts.
New 52-week lows (182 new lows today): AMC Entertainment (AMC - $0.04 to $1.28, Zillow Group (Z - $7.95 to $46.76), Snap Inc. (SNAP - $0.23 to $5.00), Avantor Inc. (AVTR - $1.89 to $9.28)
Notable Put Activity
There is unusual put activity today in Vulcan Materials Co. (VMC - $7.31 to $323.06). This activity equates to over 2,917 put contracts, 300x average daily put volume and 40x call volume. A large block trade in the March 20th, 2026, expiration accounted for nearly all the volume. Traders sold 2,910 of the 300.00 strike put contracts at $2.80, slightly below the mid-point of the wider bid/ask $1.65 x $4.90. There were only three contracts of open interest, so we know this represents new positioning (suggesting neutral to bullish intent). Shares of VMC hit a fresh 52-week high yesterday and are up 14% year-to-date.
Unusual activity has also been detected in Avantor Inc. (AVTR - $1.89 to $9.28), as put volume stands at 48,883 contracts, 68x average volume and 40x call volume, in morning trading. Most of the volume can be attributed to a large block put sale in the March 20th, 2026, expiration. Traders sold 47,000 of the 8.00 strike puts, in two large block orders, at an average price of $0.08. There were zero contracts of open interest, so we know these are new positions (suggesting neutral to bullish intent). Shares of AVTR are down over 16% today, setting a 52-week low price of $8.90, after the company reported adjusted Q4 EBITDA that fell short of the average analyst estimate.
Gauging Volatility
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX - 0.15 to 17.64) is down by 0.84%, as equity markets are mixed in late morning trading (DJI - 16, SPX + 2, COMPX - 61). VIX movement has occurred within a wider range today (the intraday range is 16.75 to 18.96). The highest volume contract is currently March 18th, 2026, 16.50 put (volume is 28,400 vs. open interest of 43,944).