Today's Options Market Update

Tariff uncertainty reigned this morning, pushing stocks to early losses and raising volatility on Wall Street. Investors kept buzzing over the Supreme Court’s 6-3 decision Friday to overturn President Trump's trade barriers, which threw world trade into confusion and raised questions about the durability of trade deals struck under auspices of the tariff regime.

"This is a big blow to the president's signature economic policy, no question," said Michael Townsend, managing director, legislative and regulatory affairs at Schwab. "But there are other mechanisms available to the president to impose tariffs." And that's exactly what Trump did, saying over the weekend he would implement 15% global tariffs for 150 days and warning additional levies could come. The new policy brings overall tariffs down slightly but could be a blow to countries that negotiated lower levels. Beyond tariffs, the likely highlight this week is AI giant Nvidia's (NVDA) quarterly earnings Wednesday afternoon, which could help set the tone for the struggling technology sector.

Major indexes finished last week stronger despite Friday morning's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for December showing prices up more than expected and the government's first estimate of fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) surprising with slower-than-expected growth. Not great news on either the inflation data or GDP for the bulls. Looking ahead, rumbles persist between the U.S. and Iran with more talks scheduled, while retail sector earnings march along with Home Depot (HD) early tomorrow.

Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (TNX) is lower by ~3 basis points to 4.054%.

The U.S. Dollar Index ($DXY) is lower by 0.21 to 97.58.

WTI Crude Oil (/CL) is higher by 1.08% to $67.20/barrel.

Gold prices have traded in a range of $5,120.40-5,225.00 and were last seen trading higher by ~2.72% to $5,219.30/oz.

Natural Gas prices for March futures have traded in a range of $3.043-3.253 today and were last seen trading higher by 0.79% to $3.071.

Bitcoin (BTC) is lower by ~2.64% over the last 24 hours to $65,828.46 today.

Shares of ICON PLC (ICLR + $2.84 to $102.54) are trading higher this morning after Jefferies upgraded the provider of clinical research development and commercialization services to “Buy” from “Hold” while reducing their price target on the stock to $135.00 from $175.00. Analysts at Jefferies cited valuation, noting ICLR’s attractive 11 times free cash flow forecast for 2026. Option volume is relatively light with the April 17^th 125.00 call being the highest volume contract (volume is 1,418).

Also trading to the upside this morning is ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD + $0.66 to $24.65) after Mizuho upgraded the biopharmaceutical company to “Outperform” from “Neutral” and raised their price target on the stock to $35.00 from $29.00. Analysts at Mizuho said that investors are underappreciating the company’s experimental drug (remlifanserin) to treat psychosis in Alzheimer’s disease and Lewy body dementia, which is currently in the Phase 2 RADIANT trial. Option volume is tepid at the time of this writing with the March 20^th 26.00 call being the highest volume contract (volume is 54).

New 52-week highs (151 new highs today): Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM + $9.75 to $238.01), Fabrinet Inc. (FN + $9.15 to $555.28), Texas Pacific Land & Trust (TPL + $31.19 to $531.07)

Some unusual call activity (~100:1 calls over puts) is being seen in Genworth Financial Inc. (GNW - $0.30 to $8.48) as option traders primarily target the March 20^th 9.00 call. Volume on this contract is 5,110 versus open interest of 910, so we know that the volume primarily represents fresh positioning. The bulk of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were bought around the same time at the ask price of $0.25 each, which suggests bullish intent.

Shares of Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO - $7.14 to $40.28) are under pressure this morning after the Danish drugmaker said that its experimental obesity drug (CagriSema) failed to produce as much weight loss as Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro in an 84-week trial. Those taking CagriSema achieved 23% weight loss after 84 weeks of treatment versus the 25.5% weight loss Mounjaro achieved over the same timeframe. Novo Nordisk said it will start a separate Phase 3 study of CagriSema at a higher dose later this year. Calls are outnumbering puts ~3:2 with the February 27^th 43.00 call seeing the most action from traders (volume is 7,372).

Also trading to the downside today is V.F. Corporation (VFC - $1.55 to $19.68) after JPMorgan downgraded the branded apparel, footwear and accessory maker to “Underweight” from “Neutral” and trimmed their price target on the stock to $18.00 from $19.00. Analysts at JPMorgan reduced their fiscal 2027 & 2028 earnings estimates and believe the recovery in VFC’s Vans brand will take longer than expected. Puts are outpacing calls ~6:1 with the September 18^th 15.00 put being the highest volume contract (volume is 10,011).

New 52-week lows (166 new lows today): Accenture PLC (ACN - $7.29 to $208.06), Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE - $11.97 to $246.65), Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG - $267.79 to $3,809.00)

Some unusual put activity (better than 3:1 puts over calls) is being seen in Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL - $9.27 to $305.82) which is primarily driven by a 7,750 contract block that was bought on the April 17^th 300.00 put for $16.97 when the bid/ask spread was $16.35 x $17.35 (open interest is 3,098). We know that this block is a new position based on the open interest figure, and we can assume that the intent is bearish in nature since the trade took place above the midpoint of the bid/ask spread.

Certara Inc. (CERT - $0.05 to $6.41): Option volume is running at ~160x the daily average on this healthcare technology company as option traders primarily target the March 20^th 10.00 call. Volume on this contract is 1,705 versus open interest of 208, so we know that the volume primarily represents fresh positioning. The bulk of the transactions consisted of various-sized blocks that were bought around the same time at the ask price of $0.20 each, which suggests bullish intent.

Verisk Analytics Inc. (VRSK + $2.31 to $184.81): Option volume is running at ~97x the daily average on this provider of data analytics and technology solutions to the insurance industry which is primarily driven by a 10,000 contract block that was bought on the June 18^th 190.00 call for $13.15 when the bid/ask spread was $11.60 x $14.30 (open interest is 1). We know that this block is a new position based on the open interest figure, and we can assume that the intent is bullish in nature since the trade took place above the midpoint of the bid/ask spread.

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC + $0.27 to $12.77): Option volume is running at ~66x the daily average on this integrated energy company which is primarily being driven by a couple of large blocks that simultaneously traded on the August 21^st expiration earlier this morning:

• 15.00 call (open interest is 2,535): A 12,000 contract block was bought at the ask price of $0.65.
• 18.00 call (open interest is 0): A 12,000 contract block was sold for $0.24 when the bid/ask spread was $0.00 x $0.65.

We know that these blocks are new positions based on the respective open interest figures, and it appears that a $3.00-wide bull call spread was established for a net debit of $0.41 (x 12K contracts x 100 multiplier, excluding commissions). The positioning suggests that the block trader believes that EC will close above the break-even price of $15.41 at expiration.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX + 2.08 to 21.17) has been in positive territory all day today (the intraday range is 19.50-22.04), as equity markets are lower across the board around the midday mark (DJI - 705, SPX - 67, $COMP - 250). VIX option volume is below average today at 276,202 contracts, and calls are outnumbering puts better than 2:1 so far today.