Bitcoin Monitor: Profitability Thresholds Hit

May 21, 2026

Bitcoin's bear market rally just flipped long-term and short-term positions net profitable. Clearing resistance ahead will depend partly on how investors react to this threshold.

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On balance, long-term and short-term bitcoin holders who are currently selling are now doing so at a profit for the first time in months, thanks to bitcoin's recent rally to multi-month highs. Clearing such a psychologically important hurdle is generally considered a bullish development.

But there's plenty of resistance overhead, including the 200-day moving average, short positioning, and an average cost basis for investors in exchange-traded products (ETPs) of about $83,000. Whether bitcoin clears that resistance may depend on the extent to which traders and investors who now hold positions—including many who have been underwater for months—take the opportunity for a near-term exit, either at a profit or a narrower loss.

Long-term holders

Long-term bitcoin holders currently selling their positions are now doing so at a net profit for the first time since February 4, 2026, a day before the most recent market low. The chart below illustrates the pain long-term holders endured in 2026 was a mere blip compared to the 2022–2023 bear market.

Long-term bitcoin holders are now net profitable when exiting after selling at a net loss since February 2026.

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Data source: Glassnode

For illustrative purposes only.

Short-term holders

Six months into a bear market, after a rally of about 25%, most short-term bitcoin holders selling now are doing so at a net profit, though just barely, according to data from Glassnode. As the chart below shows, the majority of short-term holders (those who have held positions for fewer than 155 days) who liquidated positions sold at a loss over the past six months. Only on May 7, 2026, did the balance shift toward realized profits—for the first time since early November 2025, when bitcoin's price was just over $101,000.

After months selling at a net loss, short-term bitcoin holders have crossed into net realized profit.

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Data source: Glassnode

For illustrative purposes only.

Those still holding short-term positions face a choice. While many exited during and after the February sell-off, others have held on or entered the market as bitcoin's price began to recover, either paring their unrealized losses or achieving unrealized gains, respectively. The chart below shows Glassnode's net unrealized profit/loss ratio turned positive in early May (and sat at 0.03 as of May 14). Glassnode characterizes the shift as a move from capitulation to a combination of hope and fear. The question is whether hope or fear wins out as bitcoin challenges key resistance.

Existing short-term bitcoin positions just turned net profitable for the first time since October 2025.

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Data source: Glassnode

For illustrative purposes only.

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